ISO-NE outlined its planned approach for accounting for resources’ gas supply limitations in its new capacity accreditation framework at the NEPOOL Markets Committee meeting Nov. 13.
The incorporation of regional gas constraints into the RTO’s accreditation process is an important part of the RTO’s capacity auction reform (CAR) project, as the current accreditation process does not account for these limitations.
Gas resources make up the largest group of generators in the region, accounting for 55% of generation in 2024 and 44% of capacity awards in the most recent forward capacity auction. Changes to the accreditation methodology for gas-only resources could have significant implications for overall capacity prices in the region, capacity revenues available to gas-only resources and incentives for gas generators to sign firm fuel contracts.
Under the CAR accreditation framework, ISO-NE plans to deploy a gas capacity demand curve reflecting “the diminishing reliability impact of non-firm capacity due to the system-wide gas constraint.”
Steven Otto, manager of economic analysis at ISO-NE, said the downward-sloping gas capacity demand curve would be “analogous to the existing export-constrained capacity demand curve design.”
In the winter, when gas resources face limited access to gas, the resources would be compensated at a lower price than other capacity resources, he said.
“In conjunction with the simultaneous clearing of the system-wide demand curve, the intersection of the gas capacity supply and demand curves determines how much non-firm gas-only CSO [capacity supply obligation] will be awarded and how much less that CSO will be paid,” Otto said.
Gas generation backed by firm fuel arrangements would earn the full capacity price paid to all other resources and would decrease the estimated amount of gas available to resources without firm contracts.
This approach differs from the marginal-reliability-impact approach ISO-NE plans to take for other resource limitations.
The RTO’s basic accreditation approach is intended to quantify each resource’s ability to reduce the amount of expected unserved energy during forecasted periods of energy shortfall. Factors such as outage rate, intermittency or fuel storage capabilities would be reflected in the amount of capacity that resources are allowed to sell in the market.
The gas constraint would be calculated separately from the accreditation values assigned to gas resources. ISO-NE plans to use an accreditation methodology similar to that of other non-energy limited thermal resources. Accreditation values would be based largely on resources’ forced outage rates and maximum capabilities, Otto said.
ISO-NE will rely on modeling by the Analysis Group to estimate how much gas is available to all resources. Todd Schatzki, principal at the Analysis Group, presented the firm’s methodology for modeling gas availability.
The consulting firm plans to calculate total pipeline gas availability based on the 50 highest-inflow days since 2021, which marks the last time there was a significant increase in pipeline capacity into the region.
To estimate available supply from LNG terminals, Analysis Group will use an economic model that accounts for weather and temporal variables, which incorporate effects related to the day of the week and time of the year.
Schatzki noted that decisions about LNG releases are dictated by opportunity costs, because LNG terminals typically have a fixed amount of seasonal supply to sell over the course of the winter season.
“Total winter sendout from LNG terminals varies annually based largely on pre-season contractual commitments and to a lesser degree in-season spot cargoes,” he noted, adding that total seasonal LNG procurements affect the amount of gas available from LNG injections on a given day.
While it is difficult to predict total seasonal LNG supply, it is “important to control for annual variation in total LNG sendout,” he said.
To calculate how much of the total LNG and pipeline gas supply is available to generators, Analysis Group will subtract daily non-generator gas demand. It will calculate non-generator gas demand based on a regression model that includes similar weather and temporal variables as are used for the LNG supply calculation.
For ISO-NE resource adequacy analyses, Analysis Group will account for uncertainty in its forecast of total gas supply by calculating the total amount of gas available to generators using 24 simulated load winters. For each winter, the firm will “develop 10 profiles of available gas electric supply representing distribution of uncertainty in estimated available electric supply,” Schatzki said.
Also at the MC meeting, Otto presented ISO-NE’s proposed accreditation framework for energy limited resources, a category that includes oil, jet fuel, kerosene and dual fuel generators.
ISO-NE would determine energy limited status for these resources “seasonally based on their usable fuel inventory levels over the last three seasons,” he said, adding that resources unable to run at their maximum capability for 24 straight hours would be considered limited.
“ISO estimates suggest less than 900 MW of the region’s roughly 12,000 MW of oil, jet fuel, kerosene or dual fuel resources will be considered energy limited in the winter and around 500 MW will be modeled as energy limited in the summer,” he said.
The main accreditation factors for these resources would be maximum capability, forced outage rate and daily energy limit.
Fuel inventory evaluations would be based on an average of the median seasonal inventory levels over the past three years. The RTO plans to allow certain exemptions or special treatment for newly commercial resources or resources that experienced extended forced outages that affected their fuel inventory levels in past winters.