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July 8, 2024

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Québec, New England See Shifting Role for Canadian Hydropower

With the days of endless cheap hydropower in Québec coming to an end, and the Northeastern U.S. hoping to rapidly scale up intermittent renewables, the two regions may be forced to fundamentally reconsider the role of hydropower on the grid. 

Power has historically flowed south, and just a decade ago, government-owned corporation Hydro-Québec actively sought two contracts to send large quantities of power to the U.S. It eventually reached deals with Massachusetts and New York that led to a pair of major new transmission projects: the 1,200-MW New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) and the 1,250-MW Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE). 

NECEC and CHPE are aiming to be in service by 2025 and 2026, respectively, and are tied to long-term supply contracts that will ensure that baseload power will flow from Québec to the Northeast well into the 2040s. 

At the same time, increasing power demand in Québec has forced Hydro-Québec to re-evaluate the role of hydropower going forward while spurring concerns in the U.S. that it will not have enough power to fulfill the contracts. 

While Hydro-Québec has maintained that it will be able to meet the NECEC and CHPE contracts, the corporation acknowledges that a paradigm shift is on the horizon for its hydro fleet. 

“When you look forward, we don’t have more surpluses that we could do another two [contracts] tomorrow — not like that, not in that same fashion,” Serge Abergel, COO of Hydro-Québec’s U.S. operations, told RTO Insider. 

Instead, the company is eyeing a long-term change in the role hydropower plays on the grid, transitioning from baseload to a long-duration storage resource that can help balance and firm up the growing amount of wind and solar resources. 

“We’re at a point in time where the traditional way of how we’ve been doing things in the past — sending [from] north to south large blocks of energy 24/7 — is completely changing,” Abergel said. The proliferation of intermittent renewables “will create a very strong need for a balancing resource, and that’s where our hydropower will be able to play a different role.” 

Enough Energy, or Enough Capacity?

In 2021, a group of MIT-affiliated researchers published a study modeling the optimal configuration of a high-renewables grid in 2050, aimed at better understanding the role of large Canadian hydro resources. 

The researchers initially expected to find hydropower to be “this very flexible baseload resource, something like nuclear, but even more flexible,” co-author Emil Dimanchev told RTO Insider. 

“But what we found from our modeling was something very different,” Dimanchev said; “specifically, the fact that if the system was operated optimally, the best thing to do would be to do a two-way trading of electricity,” with Canadian hydro operating “more as a battery rather than this flexible source of energy.” 

The modeling found that increasing the transmission capacity between Québec and New England would help expedite the decarbonization of the power sector while reducing the need to overbuild intermittent renewables. The analysis also found that Québec did not need to add any hydropower for it to play a substantial balancing role, noting that investments in new hydro plants “are deemed uneconomical by our model” compared to investments in new wind and solar. 

“Québec already has this huge battery, so intermittency is not a problem,” Dimanchev said. New wind and solar resources “can be immediately firmed up with existing hydro.” 

To prevent short-term power supply issues, Hydro-Québec is planning to spend $90 billion to $110 billion CAD by 2035 to increase its generating capacity by 8,000 to 9,000 MW, largely through new wind resources, demand reductions, upgrades to existing hydro generators and new hydro facilities. 

The study’s findings also speak to more recent questions of whether Québec has enough power to justify additional transmission projects, Dimanchev said. 

“The question that people are raising now is, ‘Is there enough energy to serve all the contracts and new transmission lines?’” Dimanchev said. “Well, that might be a problem in the short term, but what our study shows is that in the long term, we should think of this resource as a battery, so the question is not so much, is there enough energy, but is there enough transmission capacity to use that battery?” 

The potential of Canadian hydropower as a long-duration storage resource is the basis for another potential transmission line, the Twin States Clean Energy Link, a proposed 1,200-MW two-way connection between New England and Québec. 

Aiming to come online in the early 2030s, the National Grid-led project touts its potential “to balance New England’s renewable resources during times of peak demand, while also sending surplus renewable power generated in New England — such as offshore wind — to Québec when it’s not needed.” 

The project has already received a vote of confidence from the U.S. government: In September, the Department of Energy committed to purchasing a significant portion of the line’s capacity to minimize the project’s overall development risk. (See DOE to Sign up as Off-taker for 3 Transmission Projects.) 

South-of-the-border Constraints

Although added transmission capacity between Québec and New England could help unlock the balancing potential of hydropower, the benefits are largely contingent on reaching a high level of surplus renewables. 

“This doesn’t apply today because we are just in the early stages of this deployment of intermittent renewables,” Hydro-Québec’s Abergel said. However, by 2035, “we believe there’ll be sufficient intermittent resources in the Northeast to start having a viable concept.” 

Reaching a high level of renewable power in New England will require significant investments in local transmission infrastructure to interconnect new solar and wind resources, said Francis Pullaro, executive director of RENEW Northeast. 

“The biggest challenge of getting renewables or land-based wind built in Maine has always been the lack of adequate transmission,” Pullaro said, adding that southern New England also desperately needs transmission upgrades to interconnect large-scale offshore wind projects. 

Regarding the NECEC line, the baseload power it will send could end up undermining the development of wind and solar resources in Maine by using up headroom on the existing system and causing more frequent curtailments of renewables, Pullaro said. 

“If the states are going to be investing in new transmission, another line to Canada shouldn’t be the top priority,” Pullaro added. 

While the New England states have long struggled to reach an agreement on how to allocate costs for new forward-looking transmission projects within the region, Pullaro expressed measured hope about recent discussions among the states, ISO-NE and NEPOOL stakeholders over a new longer-term transmission development process. (See NEPOOL Nears a Vote on Order 2023 Compliance.) 

“I think there’s a lot riding on it,” Pullaro said, adding that for years, “we just haven’t been able to get the region to galvanize around internal transmission to benefit our clean energy buildout. And maybe we’ve finally arrived at the moment where this new process can help.” 

Long-term Contracts

While the contracts for NECEC and CHPE will run for 20 and 25 years, respectively, the need for significant additions of clean balancing resources could arise sooner, assuming the states can overcome significant hurdles related to internal transmission and the deployment of offshore wind. 

“In [the] short term, it might be helpful to have the baseload contract, but I think it’s worth raising the question of whether it can be renegotiated in 10 years, for example, to allow for two-way trading,” Dimanchev said. 

While the current contracts will keep the power flowing north-to-south, the NECEC and CHPE lines will be able to operate bidirectionally, although some system upgrades might be needed to facilitate south-to-north transmission. 

Operating the lines bidirectionally would also require new types of contracts or major changes to the existing contracts. 

“It will involve some way of ensuring that one region commits to selling onto the market when prices are at a certain point, whereas the other region [exports] when prices are below a certain point,” Abergel said. “Developing the business model for this new way of doing things is critical.” 

Abergel added that some regulatory changes may also be needed to enable more efficient two-way power flow, pointing to the “considerable” exit fees that apply to power sent from New England to Québec. 

“We have the contracts that we have right now; we’re committed to them; but when we look to the future, working back and forth with our partners and sending energy over the border when needed really is the wave of the future, and that’s what we’ll be working on,” Abergel said. 

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RTOs Jointly Call for Improved Gas-electric Coordination

The four RTOs released a white paper Feb. 21 calling for improvements to the coordination of the electric and natural gas systems to benefit customers of both. 

ISO-NE, MISO, PJM and SPP jointly produced the paper, which includes recommendations that could be tailored to regional specifics along with a few overarching issues that would benefit from national coordination. While the paper calls for additional changes, the RTOs noted that progress has been made, as the grid’s performance in winter storms this January was notably better than earlier events. 

“These more recent experiences underscore the value of better aligning both the purchase of commodity and delivery of natural gas,” the paper said. “If anything, these most recent positive experiences underscore the value of focusing on additional enhancements — building on the work of each of the regions — to better align these two industries. The initiatives suggested herein aim to enhance that coordination, ultimately benefiting customers in both systems through improved reliability and market efficiency.” 

The paper breaks up its recommendations into three broad buckets: gas market enhancements to improve supply and pricing options to ensure a reliable generation fleet as it rapidly evolves; operational enhancements aimed at specific needs; and regulatory coordination of state and federal authorities to address emergencies. 

The recommendations are aimed at different groups including state regulators, FERC, gas pipelines, gas marketers, generators, the ISO/RTOs, the North American Energy Standards Board, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, and state and federal lawmakers. 

The report calls for changes like increased transparency in secondary natural gas markets overseen by the states; enhancing weekend and holiday gas supply and liquidity (both from pipelines and any excess sold by local distribution companies); developing additional reserve products in the electricity markets; and addressing emergency authority to address shortfalls either through the Defense Production Act or new legislation. 

The RTOs also call for “targeted permitting reforms,” which have been a hot topic on Capitol Hill for more than a year. 

“However, permitting reforms for transmission versus pipelines are being considered in separate silos that largely ignore the interdependent nature of these two systems,” the paper said. “The electric industry and gas pipeline industry should coordinate so as to better educate policymakers on the interdependencies of these two systems and the need for permitting reform to address these co-dependencies in a comprehensive manner.” 

Targeted expansion of the pipeline system is needed for reliability, the paper said, but faces challenges because of environmental regulations, permitting complexities and local opposition to siting. 

“While the joint RTOs support targeted expansion of the pipeline system, we believe that in the interim, increased reliability of the electric system can be achieved from optimizing both the operation of the existing infrastructure and the liquidity of gas markets,” the paper said. 

Much of the coordination with the gas industry involves working with pipelines; their main trade group, the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, said it was still reviewing the RTO’s proposal and could not offer specific comments. 

“However, natural gas has a critical role in ensuring electric reliability, and INGAA is committed to working with end users, including [local distribution companies] and electric generation customers, to ensure they have the natural gas they need to keep American homes and businesses running, especially during winter storms,” CEO Amy Andryszak said. 

INGAA worked with the Natural Gas Supply Association and the Electric Power Supply Association to craft recommendations to improve coordination of the two industries that were filed before FERC’s technical conference on reliability last year. (See FERC Conference Highlights Challenges of Evolving Grid.) 

Making the gas system more flexible is important to getting more renewables onto the grid, and the RTOs’ suggestions can help that happen, Michael Jacobs, senior energy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in an interview. Renewables will make more and more of the generation stack, but natural gas will still be needed to help balance that, absent advancements in other technology. 

“That actually will require a lot of change in the way the gas pipelines and the gas generators do their business,” said Jacobs. “So, I picture a consolidation of gas pipelines, because we won’t need as many. They need to keep pressure in their system, so they need to have some level of utilization. And so, to do that with fewer pipelines can be more viable than doing it with the same number of pipelines we have.” 

He noted that the RTOs’ paper assigns specific policy changes to the entities that would need to make them, something that has not been done in earlier reports. 

“The four RTOs that put this together deserve some credit for saying those things and putting out an actionable document,” he added. “They still have work to do, but they clearly name other organizations that have work to do. And that’s the kind of thing that’s sort of been missing … this kind of public discussion about how to coordinate across these agencies and deal with the authorities that are needed.” 

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MISO, SPP to Conduct Interregional Study in 2024

MISO and SPP have agreed to conduct another coordinated system plan (CSP) study along their seam this year, as their joint operating agreement requires.  

Five previous studies have failed to produce a single interregional joint project over differences in how to allocate costs. The 2022 study focused on solutions that might qualify as targeted market efficiency projects (TMEPs), a construct MISO and PJM use on their seam. However, no projects met the criteria. (See MISO, SPP Fall Short in 5th Try for Interregional Projects.) 

The MISO-SPP joint operating agreement requires a CSP study at least every two years. 

During an Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee meeting Feb. 22, several stakeholders offered suggestions on improving the CSP study process. 

“Even if problems are identified, cost allocation ends up disrupting the ability to actually progress to building projects that might address these issues,” Xcel Energy’s Madeleine Balchan said during the conference call. 

Xcel recommended that instead of looking at two different models and then trying to reach agreement with different sets of numbers, the grid operators look at the historical cost to the market of binding transmission lines along the seam. 

“Everybody can agree on the financial costs that have already happened,” Balchan said. 

“I never really could understand why we don’t hold up historical examples and try to figure out a way to learn from them,” North Dakota Public Service Commission analyst Adam Renfandt said. 

Natalie McIntire, representing the Sustainable FERC Project and Natural Resources Defense Council, urged the RTOs to use a more proactive, comprehensive interregional planning process with an agreed-upon single model and common benefit metrics. She called for employing scenario-based planning that addresses “credible ranges” of uncertain future conditions and a 15- to 20-year planning horizon, given the time it takes to develop multistate transmission. 

Missouri Public Service Commission economist Adam McKinnie drew support for his recommended focus in and around Southwest Missouri, home to numerous congestion issues. He suggested a three-way study among SPP, MISO and Associated Electric Cooperative Inc. The cooperative participates in the Southeastern Regional Transmission Planning process but conducts joint planning with SPP. 

“It seems like it would be beneficial if there was some way that we could get all three of those parties to study that area,” American Electric Power’s Jim Jacoby said. “It has had some severe problems that we’ve seen in past winter storms.” 

Ashleigh Moore, with MISO’s planning coordination and strategy team, said the two RTOs’ staffs will use the feedback to determine the CSP’s scope. Future IPSAC meetings will be scheduled to talk through the process. 

Separately, SPP on Feb. 22 filed a new revision request (RR620) to implement cost-allocation policies already approved by the RTO’s Regional State Committee for the Joint Targeted Interconnection Queue (JTIQ) project with MISO. The rule change would memorialize and define how the JTIQ would be deployed and applied once executed and is coordinated with changes to the JOA. 

SPP’s Clint Savoy said once RR620 is filed at FERC, staff will be able to work with MISO on TMEPs projects. 

Comments on RR620 are due by the close of business March 14. 

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Insurer: Majority of BESS Failures are in First Two Years

An insurer specializing in renewable energy infrastructure reports that battery energy storage system (BESS) failures are ramping up with the spread of the technology, and most often occur in new systems. 

It calls for developers and operators to take steps including creating spacing standards for units within a BESS, conducting comprehensive root cause analyses of failures, establishing a liability framework within the market and involving manufacturers through the entire project lifecycle. 

GCube issued the report, “Batteries Not Excluded: Getting the Insurance Market on Board with BESS,” on Feb. 21. CEO Fraser McLachlan said insurers experience uncertainties in supporting coverage for the rapidly expanding market.  

“GCube is a pioneer in the BESS field, and has learnt the hard way, having handled some of the largest losses in the market to date,” he said in the announcement of the report, which is designed to reduce market uncertainty. 

The report draws on details of 63 publicly reported failures. Among the findings: 

    • Systems rated at 5 to 50 MWh accounted for more than half of the failures and those rated at less than 5 MWh accounted for about a third. 
    • Solar-plus-storage installations accounted for 48% of reported failures; while this may be due to the frequency of such pairings, it also may point out challenges and risks created by pairing two complex systems. 
    • Nearly half the reported failures were in South Korea and nearly a third in the United States; this is likely due to the large number of systems in the two countries and the diligent reporting in both. 
    • Systems in their first year of operation accounted for 38% of recorded failures and 21% occurred within the second year. 

This last statistic is a red flag — GCube notes that the BESS failure rate within the initial operation phase is markedly higher than seen in other energy systems. 

“The high incidence of failures within the first two years of operation poses a serious cause for concern, warranting a closer examination of the potential ramifications if this trend continues,” the report warns. 

A report issued earlier in February flagged the same phenomenon from a different perspective: Engineering services firm Clean Energy Associates noted that 18% of its BESS factory quality control audits found issues with thermal management systems and 26% found faults with their fire detection and suppression systems. (See Engineering Firm Finds Quality Problems in BESS Manufacturing.) 

GCube said the risk as BESS systems get progressively larger is that failures will cause progressively larger damage, increasing the losses incurred by developers, operators and insurers. 

The 2012 fire at the First Wind/Xtreme Power wind-storage facility in Hawaii underwritten by GCube resulted in a $27 million loss, and that was only a 15-MW battery bank — a small fraction of the capacity of some of the BESS installations being planned and built. 

“We don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past of allowing growth in deployment and technological scale to take priority over quality control, and the large-scale losses and market destabilization that result from that,” McLachlan said. 

Energy storage is a linchpin of the clean energy transition, and its rapid buildout reflects this. Batteries vastly outnumber other forms of storage. GCube expects that by the end of this year, BESS will account for as much as 30% of the asset value in its insured portfolio, which now exceeds 100 GW capacity. 

“Among the main challenges of BESS underwriting is the scarcity of data and insights on how BESS works, performs and fails,” McLachlan writes in the introduction to “Batteries Not Excluded.” 

“Consequently, underwriters continue to exercise caution when it comes to BESS technologies. While market data is limited, we must begin harnessing what information is presently available to start unravelling the risks and prospects associated with this nascent technology.” 

Beyond the financial and physical dangers of BESS failures, the sense of unknown danger stokes public opposition to installation of these facilities. (See Battery Storage Developers Bump Against Perception of Risk.)  

Jurisdictions such as New York state are moving to address the threat to public safety and perception by quantifying and reducing those risks as much as possible. (See NY Fire Code Updates Recommended for BESS Facilities.) 

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Entergy Highlights Data Center and Industrial Load Growth in Q4 Earnings

Executives focused on Entergy’s booming industrial load growth during a year-end earnings call Feb. 22.  

Entergy CEO Drew Marsh said that Entergy companies signed 61 new electric service agreements in 2023, representing 1.3 GW in capacity. 

“Data centers are a hot topic and, as you know, we’ve seen interest in our service area,” Marsh said, noting Amazon’s $10 billion arrival in Mississippi and Gov. Tate Reeves’ (R) signing bills in late January to authorize the data center investment along with $44 million in state incentives.  

Entergy has framed the Amazon Web Services data centers as a win for the state and touted its role in recruiting the company to the location. 

Marsh predicted “very strong growth” among Entergy companies going forward, due in part to new natural gas, blue hydrogen and EV battery production projects. 

“In addition to the data centers, our growth story continues to develop and diversity,” Marsh said, adding that Entergy has a “unique industrial growth opportunity in front of us.”  

Entergy’s load growth has been responsible in part for an unprecedented number of expedited project requests to MISO for transmission facilities. (See MISO to Re-examine Schedule for Reviewing Expedited Tx Projects.) 

Marsh said Entergy companies are pursuing loans and grants from the U.S. Department of Energy to offset the costs of much-needed grid upgrades. He said Entergy companies have applied for loans totaling $4.7 billion “for a variety of projects related to the clean energy transition” and have submitted eight preliminary proposals under DOE’s Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnership program. 

Entergy plans to invest $20 billion over the next three years to “make our fleet cleaner, to make our system more reliable and resilient,” Marsh said. That amount includes $11 billion in transmission construction, including big-ticket projects from MISO’s 2023 Transmission Expansion Plan. (See MTEP 23 Catapults to $9.4B; MISO Replaces South Reliability Projects.) It also includes $8 billion in new generation, including the more-than-$1 billion, 1.2-GW Orange County Power Station in southeast Texas and $2 billion for solar installations. 

Marsh said despite record-breaking heat last summer, Entergy achieved its lowest forced outage rate since 2011. 

“Not only did we meet our customers’ demands, but we also exported power to other utilities in MISO in the moments that mattered,” Marsh said. 

Marsh said Entergy’s year-end earnings of $1.4 billion ($6.77/share) signified “steady, predictable results.” Earnings over 2023 were slightly higher than 2022’s $1.3 billion ($6.42/share).  

Entergy CFO Kimberly Fontan said, “weather was a benefit for the year,” with an exceptionally hot summer boosting financial performance. 

Fontan said 2023’s retail sales volume was relatively flat overall, with industrial growth offset by a decline in residential and commercial demand. 

However, she said, industrial sales were not as “robust” as Entergy anticipated in the fourth quarter, although the utility remains optimistic about growth propelled by large industrial customers specializing in metals, gases and petrochemicals.  

“We continue to be confident in our industrial growth expectations, as sector margins and commodity spreads remain strong. And we continue to grow our backlog of signed electric service agreements,” she said.  

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SCE Sees Wildfire Risk Decline as Load Outlook Improves

Independent measures show Southern California Edison has sharply reduced its financial risk from catastrophic wildfires compared with pre-2018 levels, Pedro Pizarro, CEO of SCE parent Edison International, said during a Feb. 22 earnings call. 

The utility exceeded its own targets for hardening its system against fire risk last year when it installed 1,100 circuit miles of covered conductor across its distribution system, raising the total to 5,850 miles installed over the past five years.  

“We are proud of this progress, which, combined with enhanced vegetation management, asset inspections and other programs, has significantly reduced the need for public safety power shutoffs,” Pizarro said, referring to the fact that the physical measures have meant power shutoffs now account for just 10% of SCE’s fire avoidance, compared with 100% five years ago. 

On the heels of those developments, SCE last year showed an 85 to 88% reduction in its wildfire-related risks compared with pre-2018 levels based on an independent risk model managed by Moody’s RMS, he said. 

The utility in 2023 saw no fire ignitions due to the failure of covered conductor. Last year also marked the fifth straight year with no catastrophic wildfires in its service territory, according to a presentation shown during the call. 

The presentation also noted that SCE expects to have hardened 90% of its distribution lines in high-fire-threat areas (HFRAs) by the end of 2025, prompting one analyst on the call to ask whether the company is preparing to address new areas that emerge as high-risk in the future due to changing climate conditions. 

“Clearly, we continue to monitor how the landscape is changing,” Pizarro said. “We do that in partnership with fire agencies, with [California Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety], so to the extent that additional areas are designated HFRA, high-fire-risk areas, in the future, then we would make sure that we’re using the same standards that we use for high-fire-risk areas today.” 

Electrification to Boost Load, Reduce Energy Costs

Edison expects a significant boost from California’s push to decarbonize its economy, an outlook shared by its neighbor to the north, Pacific Gas and Electric. (See PG&E Foresees Strong Growth from Electrification, Data Centers.) 

“After years of flat demand, SCE is projecting an uptick in electricity usage of about 2% annually over the coming years,” Pizarro said, in line with PG&E’s forecast load growth of 1 to 3% through 2028. 

“As more and more vehicles and buildings are electrified, the electricity demand will increase by 80% over the next 20 years, which will benefit customer affordability through a 40% decrease in their total energy costs across electricity, gasoline, and natural gas,” he said. 

Pizarro said the expansion of high-voltage transmission and local distribution networks will be “critical” to California meeting its climate goals. Edison estimates a 6 to 8% compound annual growth rate in its rate base over the next five years, from $43 billion this year to $55.2 billion in 2028. That growth will be “driven by wildfire mitigation and important grid work to support California’s leading role in clean energy transition,” the company said in its presentation. 

The company also foresees the opportunity to expand its rate base by an additional $2 billion through investments in a “next-generation” enterprise resource planning system, advanced metering infrastructure, and grid reliability and resilience upgrades, as well as another $2 billion in transmission projects subject to FERC approval. 

In January, the California Public Utilities Commission rejected SCE’s 2021 proposal to spend $744 million to install new heat pumps in 250,000 homes in its territory and assist lower-income households with necessary electrical upgrades. The regulator expressed concern about spreading the costs for the program across the utility’s customer base at a time of already high energy costs.   

“A substantial amount of federal, state and ratepayer money is already being spent, and has been allocated for future use, to largely implement the same building electrification efforts in SCE’s proposal,” the commission said in its decision (A2112009). 

“Although the CPUC denied SCE’s building electrification application due to their near-term affordability pressures, it acknowledged SCE’s leadership in proposing programs to accelerate much-needed building decarbonization,” Pizarro said. “The utility will continue to evaluate the results of other building electrification pilots it has in progress and look for different ways to support the state in advancing its clean energy priorities.” 

Edison reported 2023 profits of $1.197 billion ($3.12/share), compared with $612 million ($1.61/share) in 2022. Fourth-quarter earnings came in at $378 million ($0.99/share), compared with $415 million ($1.09/share) a year earlier. 

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PG&E Foresees Strong Growth from Electrification, Data Centers

California’s “leadership in electrification” will be a key driver of Pacific Gas and Electric’s expected customer growth in the coming years, CEO Patti Poppe said Feb. 22 during the utility’s fourth-quarter and year-end earnings call. 

PG&E is forecasting annual load growth of 1 to 3% through 2028, based in large part on expectations for increased electrification and continuing uptake of electric vehicles among its customers, according to slides accompanying the call. 

The utility also foresees strong growth in demand from commercial customers, with service applications from new data centers increasing threefold last year over the previous four years. 

“As we look at the five-year forward load-growth forecasts, the back end of that forecast will reflect the additional data center demand,” Poppe said. “And look, I think we all can agree that the only thing that’s happening with data centers is they need more of them.” 

PG&E estimates $62 billion in capital expenditures over 2024-2028, with the spending supporting “strategic capital investments in electrification, energization, undergrounding and wildfire mitigation,” according to a footnote in the slides. That represents a 20% increase over the utility’s outlook for the 2023-2027 period and translates into a 9.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for its rate base. 

The company also foresees opportunities for an additional $5 billion in spending over the next five years on transportation electrification infrastructure, transmission upgrades, incremental business connections, hydroelectric facilities and storage, and information technology and automation. 

Despite the anticipated sharp growth in spending, Poppe said the company expects to hold customer rate increases to 2 to 4% annually based on new cost-saving measures and the ability to spread costs over the growing load base. 

Poppe attributed the cost-saving to the utility’s adoption of a “lean operating system,” which last year drove a 5.5% reduction in nonfuel operations and maintenance costs after a 10% CAGR in those expenses during the previous five years. 

“As a reminder, several years of doing whatever was necessary to respond to back-to-back crises pushed our capital-to-expense ratio far below the industry average,” she said. “This is where we have a wealth of opportunity and a long runway to drive efficiencies with sustainable savings benefiting both our customers and our investors.” 

Poppe also touted PG&E’s improving record related to wildfire ignitions. 

The utility has been found responsible for its equipment sparking some of the most destructive fires in California’s history, including the deadly 2018 Camp Fire, which burned down most of the rural town of Paradise and killed 85 people. (See Cal Fire Pins Deadly Camp Fire on PGE.) 

PG&E started no “catastrophic” fires in its service territory last year, while tallying 68 reportable ignitions, compared with 91 in 2022, 134 in 2021 and 201 in 2017. Based on the scoring methodology established by the California Public Utilities Commission, the utility’s wildfire risk fell by 94%. 

“While we’re extremely pleased with these results, our team certainly isn’t stopping here. We see further opportunities to drive overall wildfire risk reduction beyond the 94% achieved in 2023 as we continue with additional system hardening and deployment of new technologies,” Poppe said. 

PG&E last year undergrounded 364 miles of distribution lines at a cost of just under $3 million per mile, bettering targets of 350 miles at $3.3 million per mile. Poppe said the work will help prevent public safety power shutoffs and other outages for 15,000 customers in areas of high fire risk. 

The utility expects to underground around 250 miles of lines this year, part of a plan to bury 10,000 miles of lines — or about 8% of its distribution system, Poppe noted. 

Pacific Generation a ‘Great Transaction’

PG&E is still awaiting the CPUC’s decision on the proposed spinoff and sale of a minority stake in Pacific Generation, a standalone subsidiary that would control 5.6 GW of generating capacity, including more than 1.3 GW of battery and pumped storage. FERC last year approved the plan, which would raise an estimated $3.4 billion for PG&E. (See FERC Approves PG&E’s Proposal to Spin off Generation.) 

“We think this a great transaction for customers,” PG&E CFO Carolyn Burke said, adding that the advantageous financing costs stemming from the spinoff will also improve the utility’s balance sheet and lower overall costs for utility customers. 

Both Burke and Poppe emphasized during the call that PG&E would not be seeking to raise money from equity markets this year because the company’s current stock price makes other financing options more “favorable.” 

PG&E reported earnings sat at the top end of previous estimates. The company made $2.242 billion last year ($1.05/share), compared with $1.8 billion ($0.85/share) in 2022. Fourth-quarter earnings per share jumped to 84 cents from 24 cents a year earlier. 

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Dominion Sells 50% of Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind to Stonepeak

Dominion Energy on Feb. 22 reported earnings of $2 billion in 2023 and announced that it has closed on an equity partner for its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project. 

The utility is selling a 50% noncontrolling interest in CVOW to Stonepeak through the formation of a new public utility subsidiary, under Virginia’s jurisdiction, that will own the project, while Dominion will continue to construct and eventually operate the wind farm on its own. 

“The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project continues to proceed on time and on budget and consistent with our previously communicated timing and cost expectations,” CEO Robert Blue said. “A competitive partnership process attracted high-quality interest, resulting in a compelling partner for CVOW. Stonepeak is one of the world’s largest infrastructure investors, with more than $61 billion in assets under management and an extensive track record of investment in large and complex energy infrastructure projects, including offshore wind. Their significant financial participation will benefit both our project and our customers.” 

The deal includes a number of provisions in which Stonepeak would share in any cost overruns, but Blue told investors on a conference call that he expects Dominion will complete CVOW on time and on budget. 

“We’ve been very clear with our team, and with our suppliers and partners, that delivery of an on-budget project is the expectation,” Blue said. 

Dominion posted a video highlighting the work it and suppliers have done on the project so far, with some monopiles being delivered to Virginia while construction continues on other components elsewhere, he added. 

The company has already invested $3 billion in the project, and it plans to put in another $3 billion before the end of the year. A little more than 92% of the project’s costs are now fixed, and the firm expects its final cost will be $9.8 billion. 

Stonepeak will pay Dominion about $2.9 billion once the deal closes to cover its pro rata share of investments so far, but the deal will have it invest about $4.9 billion assuming the cost is on budget. The investment firm could be on the hook for more, but its pro rata share of costs goes down the more costs overrun Dominion’s estimates, while the utility would wind up with a greater share of CVOW if costs are higher than expected. 

The deal has to get approval from the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) and the North Carolina Utilities Commission. 

“It will be a public utility in Virginia and be entitled to recover its prudently incurred costs of constructing and operating the project under the existing offshore wind rider in Virginia,” Blue said. 

While last year Dominion was focused on getting a bill through the legislature that changed how Virginia regulates its business, this legislative session has been slow when it comes to electric power issues, Blue said. One exception was the legislature finally naming two new members to the SCC, which had been short staffed for years. (See Virginia State Corporation Commission Finally Gets All Seats Filled.) 

“They have extensive experience in both government and the private sector,” Blue said. “And we look forward to working cooperatively with these well qualified new members.” 

Dominion is going to be back before its investors shortly, with an investors day scheduled for March 1, at which it will present a “comprehensive strategic and financial update” and conclude the business review it has been working on for months. 

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Avangrid Avoids Major Offshore Wind Losses

Avangrid reported a year-over-year decrease in income but said a timely pause in its offshore wind projects saved it from write-offs that could have run into the billions. 

CEO Pedro Azagra gave an upbeat fourth-quarter and year-end assessment to financial analysts Feb. 22, noting significant progress on the long-delayed New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line and landmark achievements with Vineyard Wind 1, both now under construction. 

In 2022, Avangrid was one of the first developers to publicly sound the alarm about the financial crisis facing the nascent U.S. offshore wind industry, as projects that had locked in power purchase agreements years earlier saw their projected costs of construction soar.  

Developers holding contracts for more than half the contracted U.S. offshore wind capacity have canceled the contracts or the projects. 

In 2023, Avangrid agreed to $64 million in penalties to cancel its power purchase agreements for Park City Wind in Connecticut and Commonwealth Wind in Massachusetts. After taxes, the net cost was just $29 million, Azagra said.  

(See Park City Wind to Cancel PPAs, Exit OSW Pipeline and Commonwealth Wind PPA Cancellations OK’d.) 

By contrast, some other companies developing projects off the Northeast coast — BP, Equinor, Eversource and Ørsted — recently have reported huge impairments. 

“This allows us to maintain future profitable opportunities with this business,” Azagra said, “as opposed to our peers’ multibillion-dollar write-offs, which continue to mount.” 

Vineyard Wind 1, the nation’s first large-scale offshore wind project, was far enough along when supply chain constraints and cost increases hit the industry that it could continue to construction. (South Fork Wind, about one-sixth the size of Vineyard, also started construction around the same time and is nearing completion.) 

Avangrid and the state of Massachusetts chose Feb. 22 to celebrate the fact that five of Vineyard’s turbines are spinning at full capacity, delivering up to 68 MW of emissions-free electricity to Massachusetts. Five more are in place but not operational. 

That leaves 52 turbines and 738 MW to go, more than one year after construction started on Vineyard and nearly three years after federal regulators greenlighted the project.  

Azagra sidestepped an analyst’s question on when the 50-50 joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners would reach full operation. 

“What we have learned in the last 12 months is a focus sometimes on specific deadlines is almost irrelevant,” he said. “The important thing is to finish the project.” 

In other news, Avangrid Networks President Catherine Stempien said construction of New England Clean Energy Connect in Maine is going well after litigation delays. (See New England Clean Energy Connect Wins Court Battle.) 

“Twenty-five percent of our foundations have been set and 20% of poles,” she said. “We’ve already started stringing conductor on the corridor. We’ve also been doing substantial construction laying the foundation for our HVDC converter station.” 

The line will bring 1,200 MW of power from Québec hydroelectric facilities to New England. 

Avangrid also continues selective onshore renewable development, Azagra said. It commissioned 311 MW of onshore capacity in 2023 and is working on projects totaling 998 MW, 687 MW of which is contracted to power data centers. 

Avangrid reported GAAP net income of $397 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $786 million for the full year. That compares with $147 million and $881 million, respectively, in 2022. 

GAAP earnings per share were $1.03 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and $2.03 for the full year, compared with $0.38 and $2.28, respectively, in 2022. 

Avangrid’s stock closed 0.3% lower Thursday amid average trading volume. 

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MISO Publishes Call to Action to Bypass Danger in Reliability Imperative Report

MISO has released a new edition of its Reliability Imperative report, with the latest version containing an urgent call to action for all MISO players.

“We have to face some hard realities,” MISO CEO John Bear prefaced the refreshed report. “There are immediate and serious challenges to the reliability of our region’s electric grid, and the entire industry — utilities, states and MISO — must work together and move faster to address them.”

The report emphasized that all three must coordinate at once to avoid a “looming mismatch” between retiring baseload generation and an influx of weather-dependent generation. MISO said members should temper retirements to retain some dispatchable “transition resources” as “reliability insurance.” 

MISO first published its Reliability Imperative report in 2020 and has updated it periodically since. It describes the RTO’s risk profile and the steps MISO, members and state regulators should take to mitigate threats. 

In a Feb. 21 press release accompanying the report, MISO said that in addition to “significant changes to the generation fleet, the electric power industry is facing an increase in extreme weather events, large load additions, electrification, supply chain issues, permitting delays and fuel assurance issues.”

Members have cut carbon emissions by about 30% since 2005, and Bear said the footprint could cut them by more than 90% in coming years. 

“Studies conducted by MISO and other entities indicate it is possible to reliably operate an electric system that has far fewer conventional power plants and far more zero-carbon resources than we have today. However, the transition that is underway to get to a decarbonized end state is posing material, adverse challenges to electric reliability,” Bear warned. He said that until new technologies become viable, MISO will continue to need dispatchable resources.  

“We’re seeing traditional generators being replaced by resources that aim to meet clean energy goals but that do not have the same reliability attributes as those they are replacing,” Bear said.  

MISO said supply chain and siting and permitting issues outside of MISO’s control are hampering new generation projects that will be crucial to reliability. The grid operator also said the footprint is increasingly housing single-site, large load additions like data centers that planned and existing generation might not be able to accommodate, especially when considering new pressure on the grid from electric vehicles and other electrification. 

MISO reported that its South region is experiencing an industrial renaissance and soon could add manufacturing plants producing steel, hydrogen, liquefied natural gas and other heavy industry totaling 1 GW in new demand. 

MISO said diminishing generation and load growth over the past decade-plus already have depleted its surplus reserves.

“Since 2022, MISO has been operating near the level of minimum reserve margin requirements,” it said. 

The RTO said ongoing initiatives into 2024 like applying a sloped demand curve in capacity auctions, introducing a capacity accreditation that’s more reflective of actual generator availability and planning a second long-range transmission portfolio should help the footprint make progress toward a more reliable transition.  

MISO President Clair Moeller said MISO sees “very little risk of overbuilding the transmission system; the real risk is in a scenario where we have underbuilt the system.”