The U.S. Energy Association had billed its July 10 virtual briefing as a look at emerging technologies in the energy space, with a panel of industry executives talking about grid-enhancing technologies, nuclear fusion, small modular reactors, long-duration storage and low-carbon natural gas plants.
But questions from energy reporters at the event quickly shifted the focus to topics of the moment: rising energy demand from data centers and what happens to U.S. energy policy if former President Donald Trump is re-elected.
Arvin Ganesan, CEO of Fourth Power, a long-duration storage startup, sees the upcoming election as a secondary consideration. “The investment moment we’re in is largely derived by prevailing interest rates,” he said. What is driving the market is “how the electrical system is operated, and that is through, largely, state- and utility-led investments and procurement.”
The growth in demand from data centers has the potential to shift utilities’ approach to their operations, he said. “The amount of load growth is, for these utilities, beyond stressful; it is a threat that they need to manage. … Utilities are conservative in general with technology deployment, but their need for new electrons is so high, some of that dynamic is changing.”
Fourth Power’s storage technology turns excess renewable power into high-temperature heat that can be stored in carbon blocks and provide five to 500 hours of power and could be one-tenth the cost of lithium-ion batteries, Ganesan said.
Like many in the industry, he sees the tax credits for renewable energy and storage in the Inflation Reduction Act as “fairly insulated from partisanship … given the fact that well over 50% of solar and storage installations are in ‘red’ districts, and the employment created by these industries span the breadth of geographies in states and in districts.”
Alan Ahn, deputy director for nuclear at Third Way, a center-left think tank, similarly argued that advanced nuclear has broad support from Republicans and Democrats, pointing to the recent passage and signing of the bipartisan Accelerating Deployment of Versatile Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy (ADVANCE) Act (S. 870).
The law is targeted at providing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission with new authorities to, for example, improve and accelerate the permitting of advanced and micro reactors, and study advanced manufacturing techniques to help build reactors faster and cheaper.
A range of tech companies ― like Google and Microsoft ― are looking at SMRs to provide clean, dispatchable power to data centers, and Ahn expects “robust support for advanced nuclear regardless of whether we have a Democratic or Republican administration.”
The Biden administration and Department of Energy have provided strong support for advanced SMRs, with billions in federal dollars for two demonstration projects and, more recently, an announcement of another $900 million to support well designed projects that aim to build out a pipeline of SMRs. But companies have been hesitant to move ahead with projects because of the U.S. industry’s recent history of massive cost overruns and schedule delays that plagued the two new reactors now online at Plant Vogtle in Georgia. (See DOE Announces $900M to Kick-start Small Modular Nuclear Pipeline.)
“The issue is how can we get users to move first,” Ahn said. “I think the conversation has really shifted towards, are there roles that the federal government can undertake to mitigate some of this first-of-a-kind risk?”
Possible initiatives might include “some sort of completion insurance program or cost-overrun backstop that the federal government can implement,” he said.
Fusion by Mid-2030s?
Andrew Holland, CEO of the Fusion Industry Association (FIA), is equally bullish on the development of nuclear fusion, which he said could reach commercial scale by the mid-2030s or before, and similarly pointed to data center and industrial demand as drivers.
Fusion technologies — which heat hydrogen atoms to extremely high temperatures, causing them to fuse together — promise to produce massive amounts of carbon-free power, according to FIA’s website. Because the process does not produce radioactive waste, permitting fusion plants should be simpler, Holland said, requiring only a permit to operate, rather than the permits to construct and operate required for traditional, fission plants.
Microsoft signed a contract last year for 50 MW of power from fusion startup Helion, and steelmaker Nucor also is partnering with Helion on a 500-MW fusion plant. These deals “do a good job of helping to advance the technology of fusion … because they show there is a de-risked pathway towards getting this energy on the grid,” Holland said.
“The need to have always-on, always-available, clean, firm power for these data centers can be a really important part of our network and our capital stack as we develop into the next phase of this [technology],” he said.
Ashley Smith, chief technology and innovation officer for AES, agreed that power demand from data centers, artificial intelligence and transportation and building electrification is driving a sense of urgency among utilities to figure out “how to get more electricity onto the grid.”
AES has piloted dynamic line ratings at its utilities in Indiana and Ohio, Smith said, but she defended a go-slow approach to GETs and other emerging energy technologies based on traditional utility imperatives of reliability, safety and affordability.
The company is also looking at “co-location: figuring out how we site certain large loads in areas where the grid is less constrained” and therefore decrease the time to get power online, Smith said.
‘If You Build It’
Other speakers at the briefing also focused less on politics and more on the market forces that could provide ongoing momentum for emerging technologies, such as NET Power’s natural gas turbines that can capture 97% of their carbon dioxide emissions.
“Different technologies … mean a lot of different things” to people, said Akash Patel, the company’s chief financial officer. “Some want to focus on the use of natural gas, which makes it reliable and cheap. Some want to focus on the capturing of all the emissions, to make it clean. So, there’s a lot of overlap.”
NET’s potential customers include not only the tech giants “who will talk about AI till the cows come home, but also the oil and gas operators that are looking for how to reduce their Scope 3 emissions [and] how to use natural gas responsibly,” he said. “So, the approach we took is, if you build it, they will come.”
Investors certainly have, and they could provide another hedge against political turbulence. Oxy, Constellation Energy and Baker Hughes are the company’s major investors.
NET has run a 50-MW test plant in La Porte, Texas, since 2018 and is planning a 300-MW utility-scale project to go online in late 2027 or early 2028, also in Texas.
Utility investors also have helped TS Conductor gain industry acceptance for its carbon-based advanced conductors, said Charles Bayliss, a long-time utility executive and a member of the company’s board. Both National Grid and NextEra Energy are supporting the company, as is Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Cleantech advanced during Trump’s previous administration, despite lack of federal support, but the flood of federal dollars during the Biden administration has accelerated the market.
“It is just absolutely a fact that policy will determine how quickly these technologies get to market,” said John Howes, principal at the Redland Energy Group, an industry consulting firm. “There is an absolute connection between policy and the pace at which new technologies get to market. … Nobody believes that policy changes will destroy these industries, but personally, I find it hard to believe that positive policy won’t accelerate these technologies.”
