Several former FERC commissioners on a webinar hosted by the American Clean Power Association on Dec. 5 said the revisions made in November’s Order 1920-A generally are promising for getting transmission built.
“I actually think that the commission ended up in, mostly, in a very positive place,” said former FERC Chair Richard Glick, now with GQS New Energy Strategies.
Most of the comments supported the approach to planning that FERC stuck with on rehearing, which is to move toward longer-term, scenario-based planning for the grid, noted Glick, who launched the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that led to 1920.
“At the end of the day, if the states don’t buy off on a cost allocation mechanism, it’s very difficult to move forward with transmission projects,” Glick said. “So, you see in MISO, for instance, where there’s been a lot of state discussion, they’ve made a lot of progress because of that.”
The revisions in Order 1920-A ensured FERC would review any cost allocation agreement proposed by the states, even if the regional transmission provider does not support it. Glick said he was hopeful that would win over more states.
While Tony Clark — a former FERC commissioner who now is executive director of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners — joked that it’s hard to say that 50 states have any single opinion, early indications are his members appreciate the direction the commission went with Order 1920-A.
Some of the states supported the initial version of Order 1920, but there was enough opposition that NARUC filed a rehearing request that argued for a bigger role for state utility regulators.
“Almost universally, at least from states that I’ve heard from to this point — whether they were in the camp of ‘we like 1920,’ or whether they were in the camp of ‘we didn’t like 1920; we want changes to be made’ — the response has been positive,” Clark said.
While the order faces some litigation, with initial appeals filed before FERC issued 1920-A, NARUC’s major focus is going to be on implementation now, Clark said.
“I’m sure we will continue to participate and watch closely compliance filings,” he continued. “As we learned with Order 1000, there’s sort of the original order phase, and then there’s the compliance filing phase, which is also a very, very big part of it, because that’s where a lot of the small decisions get made — small decisions that have a big impact in implementing the order itself.”
The original Order 1920 gave states a more formal role than they had under the standard Order 1000-based rules that preceded it, said former FERC Commissioner Allison Clements, who voted for the original order in May. (See FERC Issues Transmission Rule Without ROFR Changes, Christie’s Vote.)
“I think the pendulum has switched the other way, and that’s to say the states have gotten a whole lot of opportunity here,” Clements said. The rule changes favoring states will lead to a lengthier, more complex planning process, and Clements said she was unsure how much that would wind up benefiting consumers. “Be careful what we wish for,” she cautioned.
One of the changes in Order 1920-A was to give states up to one year, instead of just six months, to negotiate cost allocation rules if they need more time, said ACP Senior Counsel Gabe Tabak. Many regions should take advantage of that extra time, which will mean a longer compliance process.
“If they can come to an agreement to have a parallel approach filed alongside it in the compliance filing, there will be a lot of pressure on transmission providers to file something that the states have agreed to, rather than make a compliance filing that risks letting FERC choose a different option that the states prefer,” Tabak said.
Transmission providers are not likely to file a clashing cost allocation with FERC, but assuming they do make a “jump-ball filing,” then the commission might not like either one, at which point it is unclear what would happen, Clements said.
“Certainly, the question of the jump-ball is likely to be litigated, in addition to others who think maybe it’s moved too far toward giving states authority that they shouldn’t have,” she added.
Clean energy organizations are prodding MISO to contemplate prospective load and generation simultaneously, with Clean Grid Alliance asking MISO to coordinate its annual transmission studies with its interconnection queue studies.
CGA said doing so would allow the grid operator to better accommodate new large load additions.
Speaking at a Dec. 4 Planning Subcommittee teleconference, CGA’s Rhonda Peters said MISO should adopt a policy of sharing new large load data from transmission planning in interconnection studies and conversely, including signed generator interconnection agreements (GIAs) into the year’s current Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) studies.
Peters said if MISO cross-shares data, some generation and nearby large loads can be paired up, negating the need for some extensive network upgrades on the transmission system.
“Large loads can utilize new generation directly or locally, removing the need for longer or large transmission line network upgrades to move new generation to traditional load centers,” she explained.
Peters said though the definitive planning phase studies of MISO’s queue start with the latest MTEP modeling and list of new transmission projects at the time, that snapshot quickly becomes outdated, as getting through the queue can take up to five years and MISO doesn’t periodically update models. MTEP, on the other hand, works from an annually updated model that includes large load additions that have been accepted as a reality, with MISO racking up a fresh transmission portfolio every year.
Peters said that to execute a data-sharing practice, MISO could simply add a check for a “load expansion project” into its business practice manuals describing interconnection studies. MISO’s manuals already stipulate that planners should check the most recent MTEP projects during the study process to figure out if a constraint is set to be mitigated by a transmission project that was approved while a generation project was advancing through queue studies.
On the MTEP side of the coin, Peters said MISO today allows only fully executed GIAs into its MTEP modeling. However, she said “a generator nearing completion of a GIA may mitigate the need for costly transmission to add new large load.”
MISO could consider letting a large load customer link up with a generator still in the queue by striking an agreement with the generation developer and providing a surety worth 25% of the proposed generator’s construction costs, Peters suggested. She said that way, generation is likely to be built.
“MISO has not yet been receptive to policy mechanisms that would pair large load and generation projects while each [is] going through their respective processes,” Peters added.
Peters said the added considerations can help MISO tackle the unprecedented load growth it’s set to encounter.
“Certainly we’ve heard from the states that they’re worried about these large load additions,” Peters said, noting that thermal generation takes a few years to construct after an up-to-five-year interconnection queue wait.
“We just can’t respond that quickly to some of these rapid load additions,” Peters said. “If a load and generator can come together, they can basically net out and help themselves.”
Peters acknowledged that CGA’s appeal is similar to NextEra Energy’s recent request that MISO create a dedicated study and registration process for new generation contingent on large loads. (See “NextEra Makes 2nd Overture for Bundled Studies,” MISO Previews Future Projects to Improve System Planning.)
But Peters said NextEra asked MISO to consider only already matched-up load and generation. She said CGA is asking MISO to consider “even circumstances where there’s no affiliation between the generator and the load, but they’re willing to become affiliated.”
MISO Senior Manager of Resource Utilization Kyle Trotter said at first blush, MISO is hesitant to make any process dependent on large loads, which could wind up not being realities on the system.
“It’s one thing to have a project dependent on a network upgrade. It’s another thing to have a project contingent on a large load that may not materialize,” Trotter said.
“The generator interconnection takes five years, while load additions take 1.5 years, creating a fatal flaw in concurrent coordination of the respective models and processes. This leads to inaccuracies and inefficiencies in both processes that prevent viable project development and impose a significant, obstruction in the MISO market,” Clean Grid Alliance’s David Sapper said at an August Market Subcommittee meeting. “This is not hyperbole; this is serious stuff.”
Sapper said from his “economist, lizard brain,” MISO could get a jump on preparing for massive loads down the road and make constructive use of its overflowing interconnection queue, which it currently insists is too large.
During the Dec. 4 Planning Subcommittee, WPPI Energy’s Steve Leovy asked that MISO develop a formal response to CGA’s request.
Trotter said MISO plans to return to an upcoming Planning Subcommittee to give its official perspective on the request.
BOSTON – Climate activists asked ISO-NE board members to make all board meetings open to the public and advocated for more transparency into NEPOOL proceedings at the quarterly Consumer Liaison Group (CLG) meeting Dec. 4.
“Listening to the people who foot the bill for the entire system seems like an important part of your responsibility,” said Mireille Bejjani, co-executive director of Slingshot, a local environmental justice organization. Bejjani thanked ISO-NE board chair Cheryl LaFleur and board member Michael Curran for attending the meeting but said more work is needed to increase the RTO’s accountability to the public.
The board members said the RTO has made progress on transparency, while acknowledging more work is needed.
Curran, who previously chaired the MISO board of directors, said the level of public interest and engagement with ISO-NE “doesn’t exist in any other area of the country.”
Public speakers at the meeting also said the RTO should take a more active role in decarbonization. Kannan Thiruvengadam, the director of an urban farm in East Boston, opened the meeting with a plea for climate action.
“It’s not just that we’re on the brink; we’re also moving in a precarious direction,” Thiruvengadam said. “I appeal to all of you to come together to meet the pace of the crisis by fixing your ways and honoring Mother Earth.”
ISO-NE representatives emphasized the limits of the RTO’s authority and its role as a fuel neutral organization. LaFleur and Curran both spoke favorably about carbon pricing but said the New England states have not coalesced around the topic.
“We strongly favor carbon pricing,” said LaFleur, calling it “the easy way to take an externality and price it in, by putting it in the price stack.”
“I think the ISO has made it clear that we think there would be a lot of benefits from carbon pricing,” said Curran. “As much as we can advocate, we can’t force.”
One speaker asked if ISO-NE’s emissions accounts for methane leaked from the gas network. Methane has intense near-term warming effects on the atmosphere, and studies have found state and federal estimates to significantly underestimate methane leaks from the natural gas supply chain.
“We have not captured the methane emissions … we’re focused on the generators on the system,” said Anne George, chief external affairs and communications officer for ISO-NE. Curran told the audience he would follow up on the question about methane emissions.
Keynote Speech from Commissioner Chang
FERC Commissioner Judy Chang also emphasized FERC’s role as a “fuel neutral” organization in her talk to the CLG. “We basically regulate the roads, the transfers across states,” Chang said.
Chang highlighted the need for forward-looking transmission planning and called Orders 1920 and 1920-A “a solid set of policies to encourage the country to think about planning for the longer term.” (See FERC Order 1920-A Wins Approval with Accommodations to States.)
“Hopefully by planning longer term, we can look into the future … and plan in a more cost-effective way,” Chang said.
The commissioner also said she is a “big advocate for demand response,” adding that demand flexibility is increasingly important with load growth on the horizon.
“I don’t think this is a technology barrier. I think this is more of a policy barrier,” Chang said, noting that retail customers largely are shielded from wholesale prices and have little incentive to respond to peak demand price spikes.
Responding to a question from New Hampshire Consumer Advocate Don Kreis about a potential gap in state and federal oversight on asset condition spending by transmission owners, Chang said there is an opportunity to increase transparency into how asset condition projects are planned. (See New England States Raise Alarm on Eversource Asset Condition Project.)
“To the extent that there is a gap between federal regulation and state regulation … I think we need to close the gap,” Chang said. “I know this region has a lot of interest in that.”
FERC has ordered Ketchup Caddy and its owner to pay $27 million in penalties for dishonestly offering demand response services in MISO’s capacity market from 2019 to 2021.
The commission decided in a Dec. 5 ruling that Ketchup Caddy and owner Philip Mango — who originally created the Frisco, Texas-based company to sell an in-car ketchup holder he invented — violated the Federal Power Act, FERC’s policy against market manipulation and MISO’s tariff by “engaging in a manipulative scheme to register demand response resources with MISO without those resources’ knowledge or consent” (IN23-14).
The evidence in the record shows “Mango acknowledged that he had engaged in an illegal and deceptive scheme. Mango acknowledged that Ketchup Caddy’s activities did not benefit the MISO market and stated that ‘a reasonable person with time to reflect at a minimum would come to the conclusions’ that its activities were illegal,” FERC wrote. It added Mango had a plan to secure “essentially free money” through weekly capacity payments from MISO.
The penalties are unchanged from FERC’s show-cause order issued in February and include $25 million in civil penalties on Ketchup Caddy, $1.5 million in civil penalties on Mango and a directive that Mango disgorge $506,502, plus interest, in undeserved profits for phony load reductions. (See FERC Catches Ketchup Caddy Co. in Another Fake DR Scheme in MISO.)
FERC said Ketchup Caddy’s “manipulative conduct was serious and intentional” and said it based penalties on the “critical need to discourage and deter” similar illicit conduct. Mango and his company have 30 days to ask FERC to reconsider its verdict.
FERC said the company and Mango did not respond to its show-cause order.
FERC staff estimated Ketchup Caddy’s counterfeit capacity offers over three years led to other suppliers missing out on $17.6 million in capacity payments they otherwise would have received through MISO’s capacity auction.
To invent its registered customers, Ketchup Caddy co-founder Todd Meinershagen, a computer programmer, used a random number generator on an Ameren website to land on actual customer accounts and cull data so Mango could contact them about enrolling in Ketchup Caddy’s DR program.
Meinershagen agreed in late 2022 to pay more than $525,000, including interest, for his role in the market manipulation. Mango told FERC staff he kept his business partner “in the dark,” making him believe the demand response enrollment was legitimate.
Ketchup Caddy cleared 211.1 MW in MISO’s 2019/20 MISO capacity auction, 303.2 MW in the 2020/21 auction and 372.3 MW in the 2021/22 auction. The commission said Ketchup Caddy’s false registrations and offers slipped by undetected because MISO didn’t order curtailment in any of those planning years and required only mock tests for performance. Mango admitted he entered false information to satisfy MISO’s mock testing criteria using customer use data Meinershagen obtained from Ameren.
According to FERC, Ketchup Caddy “regularly distributed” MISO capacity payments to Mango’s and Meinershagen’s personal bank accounts totaling more than $500,000 apiece.
“Mango carried out a brazenly fraudulent scheme that had no purpose other than to mislead MISO and enrich Mango and Ketchup Caddy’s co-owner,” FERC said.
FERC in the past two years has uncovered two other companies manipulating MISO’s demand response market and collecting unwarranted payments. In addition to Ketchup Caddy, FERC found that an air separation facility in Indiana accepted payments for fabricated load reductions and an Arkansas steel mill for years made faux use reductions.
MISO’s Independent Market Monitor warned over the summer and fall that MISO’s market likely contains more deceptive demand response players. The IMM’s review of demand response performance in MISO from 2023 to 2024 showed that resources routinely fall short of their load modifying promises. (See MISO Demand Response Under Increasing Scrutiny; IMM Warns of More Potential Schemes.) Considering that since 2019, MISO demand response resources have received more than $800 million in capacity payments, the IMM said the issue is pressing.
“We have a lot of concerns about this. MISO’s rules, penalties and participant conduct all raise concerns for us,” Carrie Milton, of the IMM staff, said at an October Market Subcommittee meeting.
The IMM has recommended MISO discontinue its practice of accepting mock tests instead of actual performance testing, eliminate a batch-load demand response category, enforce stiffer penalties and automate validation of end-use registrations so end-use customers can’t contract with multiple market participants. It’s also asked MISO to require utility-grade meters and five-minute data for DR providing reserves.
MISO stakeholders have warned that the IMM’s recommendations might make DR participation in the MISO markets unappealing.
BOSTON — FERC Commissioner Judy Chang emphasized the importance of demand response, long-term transmission planning and gas-electric coordination in her address to the NEPOOL Participants Committee meeting Dec. 5.
“We have to capture more demand-side flexibility,” Chang said. “Whether it’s regulatory barriers or process barriers, I’m very interested in working with the ISO, states and developers to discuss how we can do better.”
Demand response has been a focus of the New England states over the past year. The New England Conference of Public Utilities Commissioners created a working group on retail demand response and load flexibility, which has been meeting throughout the year. Utilities in multiple New England states are in the early stages of rolling out advanced metering infrastructure in their service territories.
Regarding transmission planning, Chang called FERC Order 1920-A “a really solid order.” She said it includes “many of the features that I think ISO-NE has been doing for a number of years,” pointing to ISO-NE’s longer term transmission planning process. (See FERC Approves New Pathway for New England Transmission Projects.)
“Transmission remains to be one of my priorities at the commission,” Chang said. She also highlighted gas-electric coordination as a key area of interest and asked stakeholders for feedback on potential gas-electric coordination improvements.
“Hopefully we can make some incremental improvements to enhance reliability on both the gas and electric side,” Chang said. “I hope to be able to identify a few things that we can do to incrementally improve the situation in New England.”
ISO-NE Monthly Operations
ISO-NE COO Vamsi Chadalavada said energy market revenues were down by about 20% in November (through Nov. 25) relative to 2023. He noted that mild weather and growth of behind-the-meter solar led to record low loads on the month.
He noted that exports to Canada have increased amid drought pressures in Quebec; exports from New England reached their highest level over the past year in November.
His report also indicates that power sector emissions for 2024 continue to track ahead of 2023 levels due to a significant year-over-year increase in natural gas generation. Emissions have declined in the year from both coal and oil generation.
Officer Election
The PC approved a slate of officers to run the committee in 2025:
Chair Sarah Bresolin, Alternative Resources Sector, ENGIE North America
End User Sector Vice-Chair Jackie Bihrle, Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office
Publicly Owned Entity Sector Vice-Chair Dave Cavanaugh, Energy New England
Generation Sector Vice-Chair Michelle Gardner, NextEra Energy Resources
Supplier Sector Vice-Chair Aleks Mitreski, Brookfield Renewable Energy Group
Transmission Sector Vice-Chair Dave Norman, Versant Power
WASHINGTON ― In her four years leading the Department of Energy, Secretary Jennifer Granholm has never been anything less than enthusiastic, if not downright exuberant, about the U.S. clean energy transition, and taking the stage as the closing speaker at DOE’s Deploy 2024 Conference on Dec. 5, she did not disappoint.
DOE was charged with distributing hundreds of billions of federal dollars from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, and, Granholm said, “98% of the programs that the department was given [under the laws] … have had at least one round of funding go out the door; 98% is amazing in government. The only reason it’s not 100% is because some of the programs require a start date beyond our term. …
“These laws have made investing in America irresistible,” she said. “It has made this energy transition inevitable and inexorable. … It is a transition that is built to last.”
Granholm reeled off a list of examples, beginning with the 60 GW of clean energy that have been added to the grid in 2024, twice as much as has been installed in any other year, with developers “very busy making sure they can get their projects in the ground and take advantage of the [IRA’s 30%] tax credit.”
Those tax credits and other DOE grants and investments have sparked about 300 announcements of new battery storage manufacturing facilities that could halve U.S. dependence on China for lithium, the critical mineral used in most electric vehicle and grid-tied batteries, she said.
“China had dominated this space because they had an industrial strategy, and we now have one to rival them,” Granholm said.
Noting that Deploy likely would be her last major public appearance as energy secretary, Granholm acknowledged the uncertainty ahead as President-elect Donald Trump takes office with an energy agenda heavily weighted toward fossil fuels.
But she sees hope in the fact that about 80% of the federal dollars from the IIJA and IRA are going to red states and districts.
“For every $1 that’s invested by the federal government, $6 are invested by the private sector, and all those dollars are going to red states,” Granholm said. “It would be political malpractice to undo the incentives that are causing all of this economic activity in those red states.”
‘Every Available Electron’
Arguments in defense of the IIJA and IRA were repeated throughout the two-day conference, with speakers linking the economics of clean energy technologies to the industry’s current concerns about demand growth from artificial intelligence, data centers and electrification. (See Podesta: Economics of Clean Energy Have Simply Taken Over.)
Winning the AI race with China has become a national security priority, said Neil Chatterjee, who chaired FERC during the first Trump administration and now is a senior adviser at Hogan Lovells, a multinational law firm. “It’s going to totally upend energy policy and the conventional wisdom that Republicans are for fossil fuels and Democrats are for green energy. …
“We’re going to need every available electron and … every available megawatt,” Chatterjee said Dec. 5, during an onstage conversation with Jigar Shah, director of DOE’s Loan Programs Office, and Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a Republican-leaning advocacy group.
“We’re going to figure out energy efficiency, demand response, virtual power plants,” Chatterjee said. “How can we get grid-enhancing technologies [online]? How can we get greater optimization for our current grid? All of this will be essential to winning the AI race while simultaneously bringing down the cost of electricity for consumers.”
Reams said clean energy entrepreneurs will need to focus on how they can provide cost-effective solutions to meet demand growth and ensure they are meeting with White House staff and with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
“I know there’s a lot of talk about President-[elect] Trump being a climate denier, not really valuing reducing emissions,” Reams said. “But let’s get away from emissions and talk about the demand we need. How are you solving the problem? How are you part of the solution?”
Her advice to conference attendees is to come with solutions and pivot a bit on their messaging. “You’re not changing your business but pivoting the words you use,” she said.
Reams said she expects the incoming administration and Chris Wright, Trump’s nominee to lead DOE, will put a pause on IRA and IIJA funding “to get a lay of the land” she said. “But that doesn’t mean that once that pause is there, it’s going to remain.”
Organizations like CRES are in favor of continuing the LPO and other DOE divisions, such as the Grid Deployment Office, which Reams said will be “very, very important, because of all the challenges the grid will face in the coming years.”
Pivoting the Message
DOE appears to be pivoting its message toward Trump’s rhetoric of energy dominance and independence. A video shown at the conference promoted the department as a core driver of “unlocking” U.S. innovation and “unleashing” U.S. clean energy.
Another source of hope for Granholm is that IIJA and IRA funds support clean technologies that have broad bipartisan support, including advanced nuclear, geothermal, carbon and direct air capture, and clean hydrogen.
“Four years ago, who was talking about nuclear?” she said. “We have created a revolution [in] this clean energy. … Small modular reactors, the whole fuel cycle … [are] being developed in the United States. High assay, low-enriched uranium [is] being developed in the United States for small modular reactors; keeping sites online, so making sure they are redeveloped and … that the reactors can have a much longer shelf life.”
IRA and IIJA funding have generated 42 new company announcements in the nuclear space, she said.
That focus on emerging technologies added to a general sense of optimism that federal dollars will continue to flow, said Nathan Kroeker, chief financial officer of Eos Energy, a long-duration storage developer. “It’s been very positive. I was pleasantly surprised,” he said.
“A lot of these people, I think, … either [are] thinking about applying for a loan or a grant, have recently applied for a loan or a grant [or] are eagerly awaiting their conditional commitment,” Kroeker said. “In some cases, maybe they’re looking forward to closing on the loan. Different people I’ve talked to are at different stages, but overall, [they are] very optimistic about this, about the dollars and this public-private partnership, and how do we use that in order to accelerate growth and really differentiate ourselves in the energy space?”
Eos recently finalized a $303.5 million loan guarantee from the LPO, to scale up production of zinc-based, 16-hour batteries. With federal money, “we have turned the corner from being an undercapitalized startup company that everybody was watching to see ― are they going to make it? ― and now we’re a fully funded growth company,” he said. Eos is expanding production at its manufacturing plant outside Pittsburgh, in a former Westinghouse factory.
White House Doesn’t Matter
Aram Shumavon, CEO of Kevala, a grid data analytics firm, shared Kroeker’s optimism, but sees a more complex landscape ahead. “The industry was there in force,” he said during a post-conference interview with NetZero Insider. “The transition has built enough momentum, that the economics of it just make sense. …
“Even in the face of or the prospect of very significant swings associated with some tariffs and things along those lines, and potential significant challenges to some of the programs that create subsidies right now, the economics of zero-marginal-cost fuels and a bunch of technologies that support the evolution of the grid are undeniable,” Shumavon said.
Demand growth also will be a huge driver for clean tech, he said. “We’re seeing a great many people in the industry just looking at the demand for electricity that is coming, and all of that then creates opportunity.”
End-use, customers ― “who, by the way, are also employers and also voters ― are going to be demanding a broad spectrum of products and services from the attendees of that conference. And I think attendees of the conference see that and are excited by the potential. The administration ultimately doesn’t matter in those regards.”
Ending her speech with a symbolic passing of the baton, Granholm agreed, “It does not matter who is in the White House,” because “this transition is happening. This transition is moving forward, with or without a president in the White House that is a clean energy advocate,” she said. “I hope you are willing to take the time and run with it.”
“Power demand had doubled last year from the prior year; lo and behold, it has doubled again,” Grid Strategies President Rob Gramlich said on a Zoom call with reporters. “So, it’s a lot. It’s hard to think of an electricity industry process that is not affected by power demand, whether it’s utility integrated resource plans, rate cases, transmission planning, resource adequacy, you name it.”
Six regions are the primary drivers of load growth, including ERCOT with 43 GW, PJM with 30 GW, and the state of Georgia with 13 GW. But Grid Strategies Vice President and report co-author John Wilson noted that the growth within those regions is really centered in Dallas, Northern Virginia and Atlanta, respectively, as data centers and new manufacturing are locating there.
“Putting this in broader historical context … assuming this growth forecast is correct, we are now looking at the latter half of this decade showing 3% annual average load growth,” Wilson said.
The last time the industry saw load growing at that clip was the 1980s, and given the decades since then, 3% is larger overall, Wilson said. It will take more overall infrastructure investments to meet that level of growth now, he added.
Load forecasts were also very high for the internet boom in the 1990s, but efficiency won out, and the largest forecasts did not pan out, Gramlich said.
“I think the overall message I got in talking to experts on this topic is that efficiency is not what’s going to drive this,” Wilson said. “To the extent that energy efficiency is improved, it may just lead to more computing demand and not reduced energy demand. And I think that’s a pretty strong message we got from the folks who are more expert on this topic than we are.”
The 128-GW figure includes 67 GW from FERCForm 714 filings on load growth, which is up from 39 GW last year and 23 GW in 2022. Grid Strategies calls this the “official nationwide forecast.” Even by itself, it represents an 8.2% increase over five years.
The remaining 61 GW is based on “recent updates” from ERCOT, PJM and Georgia Power, the report says. Wilson said Grid Strategies did not have access to that quality of data from all around the country, but the additions from those three regions were so large that it warranted inclusion in the report.
Forecasts for data centers vary, with the industry expecting it will grow by 65 GW, while updated utility forecasts suggest it could hit over 90 GW, the report says.
The numbers are just forecasts, Wilson noted, and given that they are based on the addition of large loads from a few customers, utilities could invest to meet that higher demand only to see data centers shut down after a few years of operating, leaving other customers to foot the bill for now unneeded upgrades.
“That’s why this issue has become such a hot topic in a lot of jurisdictions,” Wilson said. “Another big hot topic that you may not be familiar with is the impact of data centers on reliability, and this is something that NERC is paying very serious attention to.”
Data centers can be very sensitive to fluctuations in voltage and other key grid power quality metrics, which means if there is a fault on a line — such as if it is struck by lightning — then their backup systems might kick in and move data centers off the grid.
“If you’ve got an 80-MW data center, and it’s out there all alone in a region on the grid, that’s probably not a huge problem for the grid,” Wilson said. “But if you’ve got several 400-MW data centers, and they’re located in proximity to each other, and they all trip off the grid at the same time, now you’re talking about the equivalent of a 1-GW-plus power plant needing to essentially disappear from the grid instantly, and that’s a real challenge for the grid.”
Manufacturing forecasts are unavailable, but indicators suggest its growth could add 20 GW of demand, and electrification could add another 20 GW. Electrification would have a bigger impact if the report went into the 2030s, by which point states like New York expect to be winter peaking as more buildings are heated by grid power, Wilson said.
“When you get to 2035, the winter peak becomes so large that now the system becomes winter peaking, and the building electrification now is the big driver of the peak,” Wilson said. “So, this is why electrification is in a lot of regions something that is a phenomenon of the 2030s and not of the 2020s; it’s just not driving the peaks.”
BOSTON — Northeastern states, provincial governments, energy companies and labor groups must work together to address the region’s energy issues, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey said Dec. 3 at the New England Energy Summit.
“The benefits of regional collaboration are hard to overstate, which is why we’ve made it a top priority,” Healey told attendees at the conference.
The fifth annual event was held by the New England Power Generators Association and the Dupont Group and coincided with Healey’s ceremonial signing of a major climate law earlier in the day. The legislation features major reforms to the state’s permitting and siting procedures and a range of other provisions intended to boost the state’s clean energy transition. (See Compromise Climate Bill Finally Approved by Mass. Legislature and Mass. Clean Energy Permitting, Gas Reform Bill Back on Track.)
The bill also authorizes the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources to seek multistate competitive procurements of long-term clean energy generation through 2025. This could include contracts with the two existing nuclear plants in New England.
Healey said she grew up “in the shadows of [the Seabrook nuclear power plant] in New Hampshire. … I understand the importance of a New England regional economy, and I am very committed as governor to working very closely with other governors.”
She also highlighted the importance of collaborating with neighboring Canadian provinces, and said the state is looking beyond just the New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line, which Avangrid projects to come online in January 2026. (See Avangrid Sues NextEra over ‘Scorched-earth Scheme’ to Stop NECEC.)
Despite significant concerns around federal funding and support for decarbonization in the incoming Trump administration, Healey projected confidence around the state’s clean energy efforts.
“I truly believe that what we’ve done here, the investments that we’ve made, put us on really solid footing, and we’re going to move forward boldly on every front,” Healey said, adding that the state’s permitting and siting reforms are essential regardless of the federal administration.
“Notwithstanding where we are in a particular election cycle, we know where we need to go, and I want to get there together,” Healey said.
The effect of the election on New England’s energy industry was a major topic of the day for several other speakers, who generally shared Healey’s perspective that the change in administration will not dramatically impact the overall trajectory of the region’s energy industry.
“We don’t change our business plan based on what’s happening in Washington,” said Erin O’Dea, CEO of Great River Hydro. “I expect New England to continue to lead.”
“I don’t think the federal election really impacts us,” said James Andrews, CEO of Granite Shore Power.
“I would expect nothing to change in the near term,” said Nathan Hanson, president of LS Power. “You may get less support federally,” Hanson added, but he noted the states have in the past picked up the slack left by the federal government.
Michael McKenna, president of MWR strategies and a former Trump adviser, said he expects the new administration to put “a fair-sized emphasis on increasing the ability to dig oil and gas out of the ground and move it around.”
McKenna said he does not expect this emphasis to bring new pipelines into New England but added that he “can’t imagine” that the Everett LNG import terminal will be retired in the foreseeable future.
Hanson of LS Power, which owns two gas plants in the region, said New England will need more dispatchable resources as renewables increase on the system.
“We will need more gas generation,” Hanson said. “They will run less, but they’re needed when they’re needed.”
ISO-NE’s Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition (EPCET) study, released in late October, found a significant need for dispatchable resources through 2050, which could pose a significant challenge for states seeking to balance the priorities of decarbonization, affordability and reliability. (See ISO-NE Study Lays Out Challenges of Deep Decarbonization.)
Hanson noted that current market prices do not support the development of new resources without state support and said he is closely following the resource accreditation changes underway at ISO-NE. He stressed the need for the RTO to account for the location of gas resources and how this can affect their access to gas.
Andrews of Granite Shore Power expressed concerns about the challenges ISO-NE’s pay-for-performance rules pose for existing generators, arguing they are “extremely punitive.”
Jeff Delgado, managing director of asset management at Lotus Infrastructure Partners, echoed Andrews’ concerns, saying penalties incurred due to equipment breaking down “can be an existential risk for a plant.”
O’Dea of Great River Hydro said existing hydroelectric resources play an essential clean dispatchable role on the grid but require continued support and investment to remain in operation.
“When we think about the clean energy transition, we need to remember our existing resources,” O’Dea said, adding that there is a common misconception that hydro “doesn’t cost anything to run.”
Workforce Challenges
The summit also featured a panel on the workforce challenges faced by the energy industry.
Chrissy Lynch, president of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, said there is “no worker shortage in our ranks, because these jobs are good jobs.”
Lynch said she has never seen such high interest in energy jobs from high school students. She said increasing access to childcare, training to transition workers from fossil fuel jobs and partnering with unions on clean energy projects would help scale up the workforce.
Lynch praised the Biden administration as an “incredible partner to organized labor” and said she is anxious about how the federal stance toward organized labor will change under a Trump administration.
Mark Melnik, director of economic and public policy research at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute, said Republican efforts to target immigrants could harm the workforce in Massachusetts.
“The economic story in Massachusetts is very much an immigrant story,” Melnik said, noting that domestic emigration from the state has in large part been offset by international immigration over the past 20 years.
“We are looking at a different demographic picture over the next 20 years,” Melnik said. “With an aging workforce, immigration is a critical part of growing the labor supply.”
Entergy Louisiana on Dec. 5 confirmed that a new $10 billion data center being built by Meta is the motive behind its recent filing to build three new gas plants at a combined 2.3 GW.
The news was not a surprise after the Louisiana Public Service Commission in November took the first steps to review Entergy’s approximately $3.2 billion request to build the three combined cycle plants, a new 500-kV transmission line and substation for a then-unnamed customer. At the time, Commissioner Foster Campbell, who confirmed Meta’s ties to Entergy’s generation plan, said the data center could cost $5 billion to $10 billion. (See La. PSC Reviewing Entergy Request for $5B Data Center with Gas Gen.)
Entergy Louisiana CEO Phillip May said the utility’s plans for the three gas plants and transmission facilities will support a “transformational investment” for the state.
“We are not only delivering the energy needed today, but also building the infrastructure that will support a brighter, more sustainable future for all of Louisiana. Together, we’re laying the foundation for economic growth that will benefit generations to come,” May said in a press release.
May added that Entergy is “proud to have played a significant role in assisting the state of Louisiana in recruiting this project to our state.”
Meta plans to begin site work this month at the 1,400-acre former Franklin Farm mega site in Richland Parish. The data center is expected to cover 4 million square feet. Prior to Meta’s commitment, Entergy marketed the site, touting its potential for large-scale development.
Construction is anticipated through 2030. By then, Meta is supposed to have achieved its self-imposed goal of net zero emissions across its operations and suppliers.
Meta has committed to matching 100% of its electricity use from the gas plants with clean generation elsewhere. Under that pledge, Meta will partner with Entergy to bring a minimum 1.5 GW of new renewable energy to the grid through the utility’s Geaux Zero program.
Entergy Louisiana said the matching would occur on an energy basis, not on an accredited capacity or installed capacity basis.
According to Entergy spokesperson Brandon Scardigli, the utility will solicit 1.5 GW of “incremental solar and/or hybrid resources through an alternative, streamlined, competitive procurement process that has been approved by the Louisiana PSC.” Scardigli said that under the process, resources must be directly connected to MISO’s Zone 9, which includes Louisiana and Texas. It’s unclear how much of the new generation would end up sited near Richland Parish to offset the added emissions and how many of the solar additions would have an energy storage component.
In its press release, Entergy characterized the proposed gas generation as “clean, efficient power plants.” The utility has said the plants will start as 30% hydrogen capable and raised the possibility of getting the plants to 100% with upgrades.
The utility has also seemingly hinted that carbon capture and sequestration equipment could enter the picture for the plants by invoking Meta’s promise to partially fund Entergy Louisiana’s front-end engineering and design study to evaluate the technical and financial feasibility of installing CCS at the Lake Charles Power Station in southwest Louisiana.
“Meta’s 100% clean energy commitment uses methodologies from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. Annually, Meta matches its electricity use with 100% clean and renewable energy on an annual basis based on megawatt-hours,” spokesperson Melanie Roe said in a statement to RTO Insider.
Entergy and Meta did not comment on when hydrogen capability or CCS would be implemented, or whether Meta would take other actions to offset the emissions if those technologies don’t pan out. Roe said the carbon capture and hydrogen initiatives “are part of Entergy’s operations.”
Jobs
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry praised the hyperscale data center as “a new chapter” for the state.
Meta estimated the data center will “support” 500 or more direct new jobs in Richland Parish. The Louisiana Economic Development (LED) agency said the project has the potential to spur more than 1,000 indirect new jobs in the economically depressed northeast portion of the state.
Entergy said its new infrastructure will support up to 1,800 temporary jobs for constructing the generating units and up to 5,000 temporary jobs for the substation and transmission work. It projected 44 permanent jobs to maintain the new generation.
LED said the project represents one of the largest private capital investments in Louisiana’s history and that it should have a knock-on effect of more economic activity and investments in the state’s northeast.
“This project is an example of what Louisiana can accomplish when economic development partners play offense rather than waiting for good projects to come to them,” LED Secretary Susan B. Bourgeois said. “Louisiana has been actively positioning itself as a hub for AI innovation, with plans to support startups, grow a skilled workforce and shape forward-thinking policy. Meta’s historic investment is just the beginning of a bold strategy to drive economic growth through AI [and] expand and diversify the state’s tech sector.”
“Richland Parish in Louisiana is an outstanding location for Meta to call home for a number of reasons,” Meta Director of Data Center Strategy Kevin Janda said. “It provides great access to infrastructure, a reliable grid, a business-friendly climate and wonderful community partners that have helped us move this project forward. We’re thrilled to be a new member of the Richland Parish community and are committed to investing in its long-term vitality.”
Consumer Advocate Raises Eyebrow
The Alliance for Affordable Energy (AAE), a Louisiana consumer watchdog nonprofit, questioned Entergy’s plans to power the sprawling data center with 2.3 GW in gas generation.
“That’s a 25% increase in [Entergy Louisiana’s] power generation — and a hefty price tag — for a facility that has a 35- to 40-year lifespan, but only a 15-year agreement with Meta. Who is going to need, and pay for, 2.3 GW after that?” AAE State Policy Director Jessica Hendricks said in a press release.
AAE pointed out that Entergy is not planning to open its generation plans up to competition. It argued that the utility did not seem to meaningfully consider potentially more affordable alternatives, like combinations of wind, solar and storage. It also said Meta and Entergy’s commitment to CCS at the plants could be disingenuous or a far-off possibility because the technology is not currently used at scale.
“If we’re going to take on billions in costs, we need guarantees that this is the best option for Louisianans, not just the fastest,” AAE Executive Director Logan Burke said. “This project has been marketed as a ‘game changing’ opportunity, but the truth is, Louisiana residents could be on the hook for significant costs and will bear all the risk should conditions change.”
AAE was also skeptical of Entergy’s and the state’s claims of job creation and argued that most of the associated jobs will be “temporary construction work.”
“Data centers don’t need many employees to run. Where’s the plan to ensure locals get trained and hired for these roles?” it said.
A new WECC report forecasts “staggering” growth in electricity demand in the Western Interconnection over the next decade — a trend that is even more concerning as entities struggle to complete resource additions on schedule.
Those trends are detailed in WECC’s 2024 Western Assessment of Resource Adequacy (WARA), released Dec. 3.
The report predicts that annual demand in the Western Interconnection will grow from 942 TWh in 2025 to 1,134 TWh in 2034. That 20.4% increase is more than four times the 4.5% growth rate from 2013 to 2022, and twice the 9.6% growth forecast in 2022 resource plans.
WECC said large loads are a major factor in the rapid demand growth, including data centers, factories and cryptocurrency mining. Electrification also plays a role.
If the 172 GW in new generating capacity planned over the next decade comes online as scheduled, the Western Interconnection will be largely resource adequate through 2034, WECC said.
But plans for resource development have been falling behind. From 2018 to 2023, only 76% of planned resource additions came online in the year scheduled. In 2023, that share was even lower, at 53%.
“If demand grows as expected and industry experiences delays and cancellations in building new resources over the next decade, the West will face potentially severe resource adequacy challenges,” the WARA said.
Factors contributing to the delays are supply chain disruptions, lengthy interconnection queues and rising material costs. Siting struggles are another issue, WECC said, as local opposition to wind, solar and battery projects is “widespread and growing.”
The WARA looked at how delays in bringing planned resources online might increase the number of demand-at-risk hours each year. Demand-at-risk hours — a measure of resource adequacy risk — are times when there is a risk for potential load loss.
If all planned additions are completed on time, there are 89 demand-at-risk hours over the next decade, the report estimated. If 85% of resources are built on time, 36 hours are at risk in 2029, increasing to 129 hours in 2034.
If only 55% of resources are finished on time, eight hours are at risk in 2025 and 952 hours are at risk by 2034.
‘Positive Sign’
The WARA was discussed during a Dec. 5 monthly meeting of the Western Interconnection Regional Advisory Body (WIRAB), where some attendees were complimentary of the report.
“It is going to be very helpful as we try to grasp the scale of what the region faces,” Wyoming Public Utility Commission member Mary Throne said during the meeting.
The California Energy Commission’s Grace Anderson said WECC continued to improve the WARA every year.
Anderson pointed out that it was WIRAB that first asked WECC to produce the WARA and asked that the report track the rate of proposed resources actually coming online.
“So, seeing that that number is as high as it is at the moment is a positive sign,” she said.
Anderson said the finding that 85% of proposed additions are inverter-based resources signals an “important challenge to reliability.” Of the 172 GW of new generating capacity planned by 2034, solar, wind and battery storage account for almost 145 GW.
Variable Resources
In addition to growing demand, the Western Interconnection is also facing resource retirements over the next decade that are increasing the need for new resources, the WARA noted.
Over the next decade, 25.85 GW of generation is slated for retirement, including more than 24 GW of baseload generation such as coal, natural gas and nuclear.
More than 4.4 GW of coal and more than 3.6 GW of gas are scheduled for retirement in 2025 and 2026, respectively. In California, retirement of the 2.2-GW Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant was postponed for five years and is now set for 2030.
The baseload resources set for retirement are largely being replaced by variable resources such as solar and wind.
“These changes increase risk and create challenges in system planning and operation,” the WARA said.
