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November 4, 2024

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Retiring WPP Head Foresees Increased Collaboration on Western RA

Outgoing Western Power Pool (WPP) President Frank Afranji envisions a deepening relationship between his organization and WECC as the WPP rolls out its Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP) over the next two years.

On the cusp of retiring from the WPP after leading the organization for four years, Afranji shared his views on the WRAP at a WECC Board of Directors meeting last Wednesday.

“This is probably the last presentation I make before I retire at the end of this month … and I’m sure many people out there are looking forward to seeing me gone,” he joked.

The WRAP came about because of a confluence of factors in the Western Interconnection, Afranji told the board. Two of those factors — the decommissioning of coal-fired generators and increased adoption of variable energy resources — largely stemmed from state clean energy policies. The third — reduced surplus hydroelectric capacity in the Northwest — was the product of that region’s load growth.

“As time passed on and loads increased, it became very evident that we’re going be heading into capacity adequacy problems,” Afranji said.

In April 2020, the WPP (then called the Northwest Power Pool) announced its intention to develop a resource adequacy program to help address looming capacity shortfalls in the West. (See Western Resource Adequacy Program in the Works.)

Two months after the WPP announced the RA effort, WECC laid out plans to redefine its own organizational mission by becoming the primary forum for discussing and tackling resource adequacy challenges in the West. (See WECC Seeks to ‘Invent’ Future with RA Forum.)

The overlapping pursuits could have spelled competition over which entity would become the authority on RA issues in the West.

Afranji anticipates a more collaborative outcome.

“In my mind, as WECC works on their own capacity assessment of the West, there is such a point of interaction on this that we have to work hand-in-glove on this, no different than we’re working with the [California] ISO,” Afranji said.

Afranji lauded WECC for being at the forefront of the Western capacity issue through its work on the Western Assessment of Resource Adequacy (a regional companion to NERC’s RA assessments), which he thinks the regional entity should continue to produce. (See WECC Warns West Heading for Resource Adequacy Shortfalls by 2025.)

“If anything, as we get the [WRAP] up and running, I think we should intensify the work, and my instructions to the staff have been always, ‘As soon as we get something that we could really say is working, we need to work closely with the WECC,’” he said.

Afranji also noted that WPP COO Greg Carrington has been asked to join WECC’s Joint Guidance Committee. “So there are many points of interconnection.”

On Track

Addressing the progress of the WRAP, Afranji said the “train is on the track, and it’s moving.”

“I have to say we ended up with an amazing group of folks working on this probe project from across the West.”

Afranji explained that the WRAP will be divided into two pieces. The first is the forward showing program, designed to demonstrate the resource adequacy and availability from participants seven months in advance of a program season.

The second piece, Afranji said, is the operational program, which will determine the WRAP’s capacity requirements.

“What are we going to need, going forward, to create these efficiencies and to have a much better planning reserve margins?” he said.

The operational component will also help WPP to determine the capacity contributions of various resources, including hydro, run-of-river hydro, pumped storage, wind and solar.

Once that part of the program is in place, participants will submit their resource portfolios to the WPP to assess deficiencies, which will need to be “cured” ahead of the operational season.

WPP teams are currently working to calculate the WRAP’s specific “qualifying capacity contributions.”

“Historically, people would just throw out a number for their own wind or their own solar or their own run-of-the-river,” Afranji said. “Our teams zeroed in on different zones, different areas, different technologies, to figure out what truly is the qualifying capacity contribution of a certain element in a certain area, so that when we do the assessment, it’s not really just a socialized number that may not really contribute much to reliability.”

Fixing a Misnomer

Richard Campbell, vice chair of the WECC board, pointed out that when the WRAP begins its binding forward showing program in 2023, major electricity consuming and producing regions will still sit outside its footprint, resulting in “suboptimization” of the RA process.

“How do you plan to sort of deal with these other large areas and entities that are outside of your purview?” Campbell asked.

Afranji said the WPP has already been meeting with CAISO regarding seams issues to ensure that their respective operations “are not going to clash or not really be in sync.”

“And certainly we’re working with SPP, because we hired SPP to be the [program operator], meaning we’re using their infrastructure to go ahead and implement the program on a contractual basis,” he said.

Afranji also explained the reason behind the Portland, Ore.-based WPP’s recent name change.

“Since 1942 we’ve been known as the Northwest Power Pool, but it started becoming very clear that this is a misnomer, because our footprint extends way beyond that … and with that the various executives of the participants urged us to really look at a name that is more descriptive of our footprint.”

The WPP currently has 44 members, 26 of which will initially participate in the WRAP.

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Climate-related Land Use Bill Stalls Again as Wash. Session Ends

Parliamentary delay tactics by legislative Republicans last week killed a Washington bill to add climate change considerations to city and county land use planning.

House Bill 1099, sponsored by Rep. Davina Duerr (D), would have made the change by revising Washington’s Growth Management Act (GMA), which regulates long-range land use planning for Washington’s city and county governments. It requires counties and cities to review and, if needed, revise their comprehensive plans and development regulations every eight years.

GOP tactics in the Washington Senate and House led to the bill’s death in the last evening of the legislature’s 2022 short session, which could not go beyond midnight Thursday. The session ended at about 11:30 p.m.

Duerr’s bill would have added “environmental resiliency” as a goal of the GMA and required the concept to be considered in land use and shoreline planning for the 10 largest of Washington’s 39 counties and in cities of 6,000 people or larger. The 10 largest counties cover Puget Sound, Spokane, the Yakima River Valley and the Washington-side suburbs of Portland, Ore. A 2021 legislative memo said 246 county and city governments would be affected, including 110 jurisdictions outside the 10 most populous counties.

The bill called for city and county comprehensive plans, development regulations and regional plans to “address jurisdictional needs for resilience to changing conditions and protect and enhance environmental, economic, and human health and safety,” according to the bill’s report.  

It would have also required the state Department of Commerce to set guidelines by 2025 on how covered areas can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle miles traveled. Because 45% of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions come from motor vehicles, traffic issues would become a priority in those guidelines.

Going into Wednesday, the House and Senate held different versions of the bill and had to go into compromise talks. While the differences were quickly hammered out, the majority Democrats in both chambers added language to allow cities to add real estate tax breaks based on being within a quarter mile of a transit station. The idea is to encourage higher housing density around transit stations to cut down on car traffic. 

The real estate tax breaks were not in either version of HB 1099 prior to Wednesday.

At Thursday’s floor vote, Senate Republicans challenged the extra language as being illegally beyond the scope of the bill. Lt. Gov. Denny Heck’s staff researched the challenge for hours before Heck decided the addition was technically legal. As the Senate’s presiding officer, Heck’s duties include ruling on such matters.

“I don’t feel good about this one. This was a very, very difficult issue … This was not a clear case,” Heck said.

The Senate then passed the bill 28-21 along party lines.

Talking the Bill to Death

As Thursday evening unfolded, House Democrats faced a big debate on large operations and transportation budget packages. House Republicans told House Speaker Laurie Jinkins (D) that all 41 GOP members planned to speak in the debate on House Bill 1099. Jinkins said that that would stretch the floor debate, preventing one of two budget packages — both opposed by the Republicans — from passing before the midnight deadline. 

“It was possible for the Republicans to kill the bill just by talking. … We got a clear message that it would be talked to death,” Jinkins said.   

At Wednesday’s conference committee meeting, Rep. Mary Dye (R) argued the bill in its present form could have unintended consequences, but she did not elaborate further on what they could be. “We don’t have answers to the impacts of this sweeping policy. … I think it is premature to make a policy of this scope,” Dye said.

Duerr countered Wednesday, saying the issue “needs a sweeping solution.”

On Thursday, Republicans argued that adding climate change to the Growth Management Act will increase housing costs at a time when Washington is facing a housing shortage 

Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R) said Democrats “decided climate change is the most important thing. … But the citizens of Washington are in the middle of a housing crisis. … This does harm to the people of Washington by driving up the costs of regulation.”

Democrats painted housing and climate change as parallel problems, not as an “either-or” situation.

“It’s important that we act now on climate change. It’s important that we act now on housing,” said Sen. Liz Lovelett (D). The legislature has passed several housing-related bills this session.

This was the second failed legislative session for Duerr’s bill. (See Land Use Climate Bill Gets Second Life in Wash. Legislature.)

In 2021, the House passed the bill and the Senate Ways and Means Committee recommended approval, but it stalled in the Senate’s Transportation Committee. The proposal would require comprehensive plans, development regulations and regional plans to support state greenhouse gas emissions targets and improve resilience against climate impacts and natural hazards.

In 2021, the Senate Transportation Committee was chaired by then-Sen. Steve Hobbs (D), a moderate who sometimes crossed party lines. Gov Jay Inslee later appointed Hobbs as secretary of state to replace Kim Wyman, who joined the Biden administration as an election security expert. Liberal Sen. Mark Liias (D) replaced Hobbs as transportation committee chairman, and the bill sailed through that committee this year.

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Annual RA Survey Adjusted for MISO’s Seasonal Capacity Market

The annual resource adequacy survey conducted by MISO and the Organization of MISO States will become more frequent as the RTO moves to seasonal capacity auctions.  

“One thing you couldn’t help but notice is MISO is moving to a seasonal construct,” MISO adviser Stuart Hansen joked during a Resource Adequacy Subcommittee (RASC) meeting Wednesday. “The question has been, will the OMS-MISO survey follow suit? … The short answer is ‘yes.’”

Hansen said staff has begun conversations with OMS staff and regulators and is “hashing out details internally.” He said the organizations will update stakeholders at future RASC meetings and have a new process in place by the third quarter. The changes will affect 2023-24 planning year readiness.

Hansen said the RTO is strengthening its data import capabilities so market participants aren’t overwhelmed with requests for four times the amount of usual information. He said staff envisions market participants responding to the survey once per year for all seasons.

However, MISO’s plans for seasonal capacity auctions are in doubt following FERC deficiency letters on the grid operator’s minimum capacity obligation proposal and its bid for a four-season capacity market using a resource’s past availability for accreditation. (See related story, Deficiency Notices for MISO’s Seasonal Capacity Auctions Bid.)

MISO plans to post what could be its final annual auction results on April 14. The grid operator has 177 GW of installed capacity, 136 GW in members’ confirmed unforced capacity, a 122-GW coincident peak forecast and a 135-GW planning reserve margin requirement.

Eric Thoms, the RTO’s senior manager of resource adequacy operations, said that confirmed unforced capacity values could still rise as members verify capacity amounts with MISO.

Stakeholders are pushing staff to reinstate a brief stakeholder teleconference to discuss auction results. MISO has historically hosted a call to review auction results the day after releasing them, but it has decided to replace this year’s discussion with a presentation during the April 20 RASC meeting.

Stakeholders said the day-after call is useful, particularly when zones clear at unusually high prices or capacity export limits bind.

“A typical, run-of-the-mill auction probably doesn’t need a workshop, but interesting results require one,” WEC Energy Group’s Chris Plante said.

MISO staff said they would reassess the need to schedule a call.

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SERC Gives Spring Checkup on Transmission Line Ratings

Maintaining bulk electric system reliability is similar to maintaining personal health, Tim Ponseti, SERC vice president of operations, said at the regional entity’s Spring Reliability and Security webinar Tuesday.

That begins with preventative measures, such as outreach and education about risks. SERC has “had 13 straight board meetings where we’ve highlighted the various issues, common failure modes, best practices and things to look out for regarding facility ratings,” Ponseti said.

Inaccurate transmission line ratings can cause a system operator to lose real-time situational awareness, or to operate equipment beyond its capabilities, damaging it or causing lines to sag beyond design, which could result in unplanned and potentially widespread outages.

Eighty-six percent of FAC-008 violations in SERC’s footprint are related to discrepancies between documented facility ratings and actual field conditions, said Dulce Plaza, SERC legal counsel, who offered a sneak peek at a report the RE will release later this month.

“If you give operators a rating, they’re going to operate to it, right or wrong, so it’s important they have good numbers and data to operate from,” Ponseti said in giving his own presentation. Planners use facility ratings to design capital projects and future improvements to the grid, so accurate facility ratings have a far-reaching impact. “Whether it’s every one, two, three or four years, we’ve touched base and given health checkups essentially covering almost 90% of our transmission models and generation megawatts in our footprint.”

Operations and planning audits often run into missing or altered equipment, or jointly owned equipment, said Heath Martin, SERC senior O&P auditor, who closed the session with a presentation on “things to think about.”

Road Debris (SERC) Content.jpgSERC

Equipment might need special consideration when applying the facility ratings methodology, generally older equipment that has older construction practices and clearance thresholds, perhaps older equipment in general that may not meet current standards, Martin said.

He showed a picture of a painted white line marking the edge of a country road that curved around a fallen branch.

“‘It’s not my job to remove that limb, so I’m just going to paint around it and keep going’; that is not the correct attitude when it comes to jointly owned facilities,” Martin said.

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Deficiency Notices for MISO’s Seasonal Capacity Auctions Bid

FERC doled out two deficiency letters to MISO Wednesday over the grid operator’s plans to institute a four-season capacity market, availability-based resource accreditations and a 50% minimum capacity obligation.

The commission said it lacked several specifics on the resource adequacy overhaul, including a fuller defense from the RTO of the minimum capacity rule’s new accreditation and deadline information.

MISO late last year sought FERC’s approval to perform four seasonal capacity auctions with separate reserve margins by 2024 and apply a seasonal accreditation based on a generating unit’s past performance during tight system conditions (ER22-495).

The RTO also made a related filing to establish a minimum capacity obligation that requires a load-serving entity to demonstrate it has secured at least 50% of the capacity required to meet their peak load before the voluntary auctions (ER22-496).

Stakeholder reactions have been mostly negative. They have said a stricter accreditation based on risky hours that can’t be predicted with certainty would result in volatility and unfair penalties to generation. Others also have said staff hasn’t explained the reliability problems the minimum capacity obligation is meant to correct. (See MISO’s Seasonal Capacity Proposal Opposed at FERC.)

The commission told MISO “quantitative evidence” that demonstrates historical performance of units is “more indicative of future performance during emergency periods” than the existing unforced capacity accreditation process.  

FERC said it was interested in seeing analyses that show the need for a higher reserve margin requirement in the winter than the summer in some zones during certain years. It asked why MISO intends to clear four seasonal auctions simultaneously instead of conducting sequential, single-season auctions. The commission also said it needed a rationale as to why the RTO would allow clearing prices in a single season to exceed generation’s cost of new entry.

The commission asked MISO to explain why it wasn’t similarly ascribing seasonal variability to its planning reserve margin analysis and local clearing requirements within resource adequacy zones. It also asked what steps the RTO will take to establish a seasonal planning reserve margin and how the new availability-based resource accreditation will factor into loss-of-load calculations.

FERC said it was unclear whether MISO intended to use different predicted risky hours across different units for accreditation. It also asked whether a unit’s performance in other seasons would be used as a basis for accreditation in another season.

The commission said it did not understand why the grid operator didn’t extend the availability-based accreditation beyond thermal resources to its solar and wind resources, which are under an existing accreditation that’s also based on availability during times of system need.

FERC also asked for justification in requiring its demand response resources to increase their availability for more calls in a seasonal paradigm versus an annual construct.

Finally, the commission asked MISO to more fully explain its requirement that units replace their capacity if they’re on outage longer than 30 days when there is a requirement for a 120-day period between a unit’s planned outages.

On the minimum capacity obligation, FERC wondered why the RTO said it will initially apply the obligation on a systemwide basis and then transition to a subregional application of the rule in 2025.

The commission asked MISO to explain how it settled on a five-month period for a market participant that receives an obligation before submitting proof it will meet 50% of its load before. It also asked the grid operator to describe the health of its bilateral market and the ability of market participants to secure excess capacity.  

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MISO: 2021 Member Savings Exceeded $3B

MISO said Wednesday that it saved members more than $3 billion over the course of 2021.

The grid operator said its value proposition analysis showed a range of $3-$3.8 billion in savings for members that participate in the markets only through bilateral contracts.

The value proposition measures the collective annual savings for members. Last year, MISO estimated it saved its members around $3.5 billion in 2020. (See MISO Touts $3.5B in 2020 Savings for Members.)

The grid operator said on average, it saves its membership about $3.4 billion annually.  

MISO said it quantifies benefits through the more efficient use of generation, reduced need for new generation, and the stronger reliability that comes with a resource sharing pool. The grid operator said it has tracked about $36.3 billion in savings since 2007.

The diverse geographic footprint offered the biggest value to members in 2021, saving them $1.7-$2.3 billion, the RTO said. It said differing loads and diverse generation sources has allowed it to operate with a reserve margin of 17.9%. It had been more than 20%.

The grid operator said the system’s additional wind generation has yielded $467-$530 million in savings. MISO also said its ability to optimally dispatch the most economic energy in its real-time and day-ahead markets saved members anywhere from $471 million to $521 million over the year. It estimated savings from heightened reliability at $285-$310 million.

“Our grid is changing at a rapid pace, and MISO is working closely with our member utilities to better understand how their plans will impact the MISO grid,” Wayne Schug, vice president of strategy, said in a press release accompanying the report. “We are committed to ensuring MISO’s value proposition evolves and aligns with the changes impacting our members and MISO.”

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Massachusetts Startup Pitches Event Waste Management for Cleantech Accelerator

The startup G Force Waste Sorters is trying to disrupt the waste industry and reduce greenhouse gases by recovering high-value, post-consumer recyclables from trash at major sports and entertainment venues.

Michelle Guiney, president of Massachusetts-based G Force, pitched the startup Wednesday at a virtual event for the Cleantech Open Northeast accelerator program, answering the question, “Why venue trash?”

Between 40 and 50% of trash at large event venues is recyclable and 20 to 30% is compostable, according to Guiney.

“To exponentially increase the volume of trash sorted, I designed a mobile mechanical waste-sorting system that will be able to defer up to 80% of the venue trash from landfill or incineration,” she said.

For context, she added, one venue with a seating capacity of 40,000 generates about 1,200 tons of trash annually. G Force could recover 600 tons of recyclables and 360 tons of compostables from the facility’s annual waste while also helping avoid 2,300 metric tons of carbon dioxide (MTCO2).

“It’s an unprecedented environmental benefit for just one venue,” Guiney said.

An Outdoor Media Buyers ranking of U.S. arenas and stadiums includes 141 facilities with seating capacities between 40,000 and 107,000, putting the minimum emissions avoidance potential for the G Force business model in those locations around 325,000 MTCO2/year. The yearly avoided emissions could equate to removing 71,000 internal combustion engine passenger vehicles from the road, based on EPA vehicle emissions estimates.

The anticipated environmental benefits of G Force’s business are what technology accelerator Cleantech Open looks for in companies applying to become a new cohort member. With the support of sponsors, the Northeast arm of the national program works in partnership with the Northeast Clean Energy Council to help early-stage startups that have an environmental focus.

Companies chosen for a cohort receive training, mentorship, investor connections and opportunities to compete for cash prizes.

The mentoring part of the program is a “great process” for mentor and mentee, said Mark Dockser, professor of practice at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business, and a Cleantech Open mentor.

“For the mentors, it’s a chance to meet and work with some great folks who have very similar interests and different expertise,” Dockser said during the event Wednesday. “For the mentees, it’s a chance to learn to analyze, to vet ideas, to do some problem solving … and get to market to find some of the right partners.”

Mentors for cohort members match the specific needs of the startup business model, according to Andrew Myers, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Northeastern. Myers and Jim Papadopoulos, a senior research engineer at Northeastern, won the 2020 Cleantech Open NE for their startup T-Omega Wind.

The team won for a redesigned floating offshore wind turbine that could reduce material costs and simplify manufacturing.

“The go-to-market strategy that we conceived of as part of the Cleantech Open in 2020 is the one that we are now fleshing out and including in our pitch deck for investors the spring,” Myers said during the event.

Startup applications for the 2022 Northeast cohort are due April 17. The administrators will select cohort members in May and announce program winners at an event in September, when the cohort’s top startups will have a chance to pitch in a public form.

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PJM Monitor: Prices, Coal Power Bounced Back in 2021

PJM energy prices last year surged to their highest levels since 2014, more than making up for declines from the pandemic-driven economic downturn in 2020, according to the Independent Market Monitor’s annual State of the Market report, released Thursday.

The RTO’s average load-weighted real-time LMP ricocheted to $39.78/MWh, up 82.8% from 2020’s record low of $21.77. While the increase was perhaps to be expected, real-time load only increased by 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels after falling by 4% in 2020.

Average short-run marginal costs (Monitoring Analytics) Content.jpgAverage short-run marginal costs in PJM since January 2014 | Monitoring Analytics

The increase in energy prices was mostly a direct result of increased fuel costs for generators, including higher natural gas prices. In a press conference Thursday presenting the report, Monitor Joe Bowring said that among the factors driving the increase in gas prices was reduced production in 2020 and severe weather events, including the February 2021 winter storm.

The Monitor did not measure the impacts of the storm on PJM separately, but Bowring said “it definitely had an effect, especially in the Midwest.” It also raised a concern that the Monitor has about the gas market.

“There’s no logical reason to have gas prices be $2,000/dekatherm, or even $1,000/dekatherm,” he said. “So we’re very concerned about market power on the gas side … during extreme conditions. That’s outside our purview, but it’s at least partly within FERC’s purview, so we think that needs to be looked at.”

In its report, the Monitor wrote, “The role of gas-fired generation highlights the importance of ensuring that PJM has real-time, detailed and complete information on the gas supply arrangements of all generators and that PJM consider rules requiring capacity resources to have firm fuel supplies. It is also essential that FERC consider and address the implications of the inconsistencies between the gas pipeline business model and the power producer business model and the issue of market power in the gas commodity market under extreme weather conditions.”

Return of the King

While gas remained the dominant fuel source in PJM, coal-fired generation shot up last year.

Electricity generation from coal rose 17.8%, compared to a 2.4% decrease in gas-fired output. Coal also made up 22.2% of the fuel mix in 2021, compared to 19.3% in 2020. Oil-fired generation rose 11.5%.

Coal prices likely increased on the back of rising gas prices. But as coal mines continue to shutter unabated, supply continues to thin. “The changes in relative fuel prices slowed but did not change the long-term decline in the share of coal and the increase in the share of gas,” the Monitor wrote.

The Monitor’s report came after the International Energy Agency reported Tuesday that energy-related global CO2 emissions increased by 6% in 2021, mostly from the use of coal-fired generation.

“The recovery of energy demand in 2021 was compounded by adverse weather and energy market conditions — notably the spikes in natural gas prices — which led to more coal being burned despite renewable power generation registering its largest ever growth,” the IEA said.

While solar nearly doubled its output last year, increasing by 91.6% to 7,412.2 GWh, it still only makes up less than 1% of the fuel mix in the RTO. Renewable output — including solar, wind, waste, hydro and biofuel — only rose by about 10.2% and just barely increased its share of the fuel mix, mostly because of the increase in solar.

REC Market

The Monitor included 13 new recommendations for PJM in its report, but Bowring singled out an old one, dating back to 2010, in his presentation: a single PJM-operated forward market for renewable energy credits.

The recommendation has perhaps taken on more urgency as some states aggressively increase their renewable portfolio standards each year up to 2030.

“Given that states are going to continue to subsidize renewable energy through RPS standards and through RECs, the markets would work better for everybody” with a single market for RECs, Bowring said, with an agreed-upon definition for what qualifies for credits and a single clearing price. “Of course, all of that would be dependent on the states wanting to do it and agreeing to do it. But we think that would be a way to make the provisions of those subsidies … significantly more efficient.”

The Monitor still recommends a single, PJM-wide carbon price as the most efficient way to reduce emissions, but a single REC market would be the next best thing, it wrote. Such a market “would provide better information for market participants about supply and demand and prices, and contribute to a more efficient and competitive market and to better price formation. This could also facilitate entry by qualifying renewable resources by reducing the risks associated with lack of transparent market data.”

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Renewables Highlight 2021 PJM RTEP Report

PJM saw interconnection requests for solar generation more than triple since 2019, now making up more than half the interconnection queue, according to the 2021 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) report released Tuesday.

The annual report highlighting transmission projects approved last year by the PJM Board of Managers features several trends, including the continuing shift in the RTO’s generation mix driven by new natural gas-fired plants, the deactivation of coal-fired plants and the increasing volume of renewable generation.

PJM processed 1,351 new service requests in 2021, nearly triple the 476 requests made in 2018. The new service requests totaled 104,316 MW of nameplate capacity in 2021.

A total of 139,937 MW of generation interconnection requests was actively studied by PJM last year, a number nearly equal to the RTO’s all-time winter peak of 143,295 MW set on Feb. 20, 2015.

On the renewable energy front, solar generation currently makes up 58% of the interconnection queue, a total of 94,000 MW of the 160,000 MW of resources in the queue. In the 2019 RTEP, solar requests stood at 47% of the 75,432 MW in the queue.

“Previously, solar projects were smaller in size and limited to a handful of areas,” the report said. “Now, individual projects can reach hundreds of megawatts, driven by states’ renewable portfolio standards goals, and are seeking interconnection in every PJM transmission zone.”

Project Numbers

The PJM board approved a total of $920 million among 118 baseline transmission projects in 2021.

Total approved RTEP projects (PJM) Content.jpgTotal approved RTEP projects by the PJM Board of Managers as of Dec. 31, 2021. | PJM

Of the projects, 52% ($478 million) of them were driven by transmission owner criteria, 25% ($229 million) by PJM and NERC criteria and 23% ($213 million) by 52 generator deactivations or retirements.

PJM noted that large-scale transmission projects above 345 kV remain “uncommon” in the RTO, as load growth fell below 1% to a normalized 10-year RTO summer peak growth rate of 0.6%. The average 10-year-annualized summer growth rates for individual PJM zones ranged from -0.5% to 1.5%.

“Load forecasts from the past five years reflect broader trends in the U.S. economy and PJM model refinements to capture evolving customer behaviors,” PJM said in its report. “These include more efficient manufacturing equipment and home appliances and distributed energy resources, such as behind-the-meter, rooftop solar installations.”

PJM said the projects approved in 2021 responded to “diverse needs” such as upgrades and replacement of aging equipment and facilities to meet reliability and resilience criteria, the “minimization” of system congestion for market efficiency, localized reliability needs and generator deactivations.

In preparation for new generation resources coming onto the grid, the board also approved 34 network system enhancement projects totaling more than $47 million. The board has approved network facility reinforcements totaling more than $6.5 billion since the inception of the RTEP process in 1997.

Offshore Wind

With the growing number of offshore wind projects coming into the interconnection queue, PJM said the injection of thousands of megawatts of power will change how power flows across the grid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. PJM said “efficiently harnessing” the new power source is going to require extending the existing transmission grid to offshore generation sources and deliver their energy to load centers along the East Coast.

Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia have established offshore wind targets totaling 14,723 MW with planned in-service dates of 2035.

In 2021, PJM planned for the offshore wind transmission expansion, partnering with NYISO and ISO-NE with the goal of achieving 30 GW of operational offshore wind by 2030. The RTO also worked with New Jersey under the “state agreement” approach to help identify the most efficient and economic solutions to accommodate offshore wind.

“Although offshore wind is on a longer planning horizon, the potential for development is substantial,” PJM said in the report. “Future system enhancements will solve the challenges that these locationally constrained resources present. Moreover, they will also address the interregional implications associated with wind lease areas that can also serve adjoining systems north and south of PJM’s RTO borders.”

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IEEFA: Blue Hydrogen not Clean nor Competitive

The private, nonprofit Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) argues that “blue” hydrogen, produced using natural gas, cannot be environmentally friendly or affordable.

In a report completed in February and discussed in a webinar Thursday, IEEFA analysts bluntly rejected the entire Department of Energy initiative to create regional hydrogen hubs producing and using blue hydrogen as a costly technological blunder based on “flimsy economic and environmental footing.”

Blue hydrogen production starts with high-temperature steam reforming of methane (CH4), splitting the hydrogen atoms from the carbon atoms. The resulting carbon dioxide is simultaneously captured and sequestered.

Gray hydrogen, in which the carbon split from the methane is not captured, has been produced for years as an industrial gas, frequently used in oil refining. It is significantly less expensive than green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis of water using renewable energy. Thus, blue hydrogen has been advocated by an avalanche of DOE and industry webinars and reports as a more environmentally friendly compromise.

But IEEFA is sharply critical of that argument. Because blue hydrogen is made from natural gas (which is 77% methane), any analysis of its environmental integrity must account for drilling, fracking and leakage at the well head and pipelines. Though methane only lasts about 12 years in the atmosphere, it is 25 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide.

IEEFA analyst David Schlissel said a major problem in making blue hydrogen as clean as green hydrogen is that at least 90% of the resulting carbon dioxide would have to be captured.

“Capturing 90% or more of the CO2 produced at a project is the holy grail for CCS [carbon capture and sequestration]. Proponents of blue hydrogen will say outright, or will more likely suggest or imply, that 90% carbon capture has been proven or demonstrated at existing projects.

“But this is not true. No commercial-scale project has captured 90% or more of the CO2 produced by the project over the medium or long term, by which I mean years and decades, which they will have to do if carbon capture and sequestration will be an effective tool for reducing CO2 emissions and concentrations,” he said.

“Achieving this goal sporadically clearly is not enough. Blue hydrogen combines the worst of two worlds. It uses fossil fuels and an unproven carbon-capture technology. What could possibly go wrong?”

Blue hydrogen’s reliance on CCS means it has “has very weak economic prospects,” IEEFA analyst Suzanne Mattei said. And sequestering carbon deep underground is another expensive technology that has not been proven to be economically viable, Schlissel said.

Mattei added another problem blue hydrogen producers will face: The cleaned-up gas is not as attractive to many corporate buyers as green hydrogen will be.

“The blue hydrogen projects are of limited value to investors who are looking to up their green credentials. Because they are pulling this fuel out of the ground, sending it through pipelines; and the leakage problems are significant, rampant really,” she said.

Proponents have asserted that they will use responsibly sourced natural gas, she said. But “a major theme of our report is that you have to look at the real-world experience … that the Environmental Protection Agency has been trying to control methane from drilling and pipeline transport for a long time,” she said.

EPA is currently trying to develop a new regulatory process, she added. If the agency is successful in forcing the gas industry to address the problem, the cost of gas will increase, she said.

Blue hydrogen “is both an environmental issue and an economic issue,” she said. “Not every invention makes it into the mainstream. And blue hydrogen has been trying to get into the mainstream for a long time; it’s just not happening.”