NEW ORLEANS — Sunny Wescott, chief meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, opened her presentation at SERC Reliability’s March 26 Members meeting by promising, “It’s only going to get worse.”
And while she was referring to the font size of the many text boxes crowding her slides, she could just as easily have meant the content of her talk about the growing risks that climate change poses to the electric grid and other critical infrastructure around the globe.
Wescott has made several appearances at ERO events in recent years, delivering speeches filled with so many warnings about developing dangers that NERC CEO Jim Robb joked at 2024’s GridSecCon security conference that he wanted to find her parents and “ask what they were thinking when they named her ‘Sunny.’” (See Weather-security Connections Highlighted at GridSecCon.)
The presentation to SERC members followed this pattern, with Wescott — who emphasized that she was there as “Sunny the scientist” rather than in her official capacity — emphasizing that the world faces unprecedented changes to weather patterns. Operators will need to prepare for an era of uncertainty that will challenge the assumptions under which all human infrastructure has been constructed.
Wescott started by laying out the basics of the changing climate, using a chart based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that showed 2024 and the 10 warmest years on record — all from the last decade — in terms of monthly differences from the average temperatures in the 20th century. She warned that this trend is pushing conditions beyond what existing atmospheric models were meant to deal with.
“When we see abnormal temperatures like this, the models could not have been trained on it. It’s impossible, because this is superseding all prior years,” Wescott said. “The 10 hottest years on record all having occurred in the last decade means that this is a continuous growing trend.”
Scientific models aren’t the only things being pushed past their limits, Wescott continued. All of the materials used to build infrastructure facilities — concrete mixtures, adhesives, metals and others — were formulated to work in climate conditions similar to those that prevailed in earlier decades.
Those assumptions all need to be re-examined now, she said. Certain formulas for concrete may not set as quickly, or at all, in hotter temperatures. Epoxies may need longer to cure and not be as flexible when they do, leading to cracks. Some chemicals may begin to produce harmful vapors in higher temperatures. Extreme heat can cause metals to expand and weaken the structures of which they are a part, in addition to affecting their electrical resistance and magnetism.
More dangers will come from the winds and precipitation fueled by the increased evaporation of water. Wescott said that “super cell [storms] are now … covering more area [and] staying on the ground longer,” and went on to mention “a fivefold increase in straight line winds” and hail stones more than 8 inches in diameter recently seen in South Dakota. Hailstones also contain less air than they did 20 years ago, meaning they are heavier and more damaging.
The problems extend beyond the infrastructure equipment itself. Sustained high heat will create hazards for repair crews: They may dehydrate; their equipment may become hot enough to burn them; and their cell phones may overheat and malfunction. Extreme heat is even known to make animals and humans more aggressive and violent, meaning security could become more of a problem.
Effects may even be seen below the surface, Wescott said. She explained that aquifers around the world have run low in recent years, with heat causing both accelerated evaporation and increased use for drinking and cooling. Depleting this water leaves large voids underground, which makes these regions more vulnerable to seismic stress.
Wescott shared a map of the country based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey, showing areas of increased seismic risk. She overlaid this map with dots representing nuclear reactors, noting that multiple reactors were located in areas the USGS marked red, indicating highest risk.
“I’d heard it was a killer presentation. I just hadn’t realized it was actually a killer presentation,” SERC board Chair Lee Xanthakos joked after Wescott’s presentation. He asked Wescott for her opinion of the best ways to build infrastructure that could withstand the climate changes of the future. She replied that “it’s both the materials and the shape.”
“Look at the structures that we have chosen. This room is a great example,” she said, gesturing around the rectangular conference room where the meeting was held. “We know that flat edges do not sustain [wind and water] well [and] domes do. I’ve always [said] that … the future is domed, not doomed.
“If we were able to go back and choose different shapes, different material types — what does it look like to take a structure like this, not scrap it and say that the structure is weak and needs to be completely redone, but create an exoskeleton that can go over it to increase the tensile strength of the building in full? There are mitigation strategies like that. … There is no reason for most of our sites to be as under the thumb of these weather events as they are. They don’t need to take as much damage.”
