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November 18, 2024

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MISO Trims Minnesota Line Route in JTIQ Portfolio

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO announced this week that it has shortened one of the 345-kV lines contained in its $2 billion Joint Targeted Interconnection Queue (JTIQ) portfolio with SPP, which will lower costs.

At a July 19 Planning Advisory Committee meeting, Director of Resource Utilization Andy Witmeier announced that MISO will replace the Brookings County-Lakefield 345-kV project in Minnesota with the shorter Lyons County-Lakefield 345-kV project. He said MISO was making the change because it approved Northern States Power’s proposal to install a second 345-kV circuit between the Brookings County and Lyon County substations in Minnesota for reliability reasons as part of the 2022 MISO Transmission Expansion Plan. That nearby project negates the need for a full-length line.

Witmeier said the “much shorter line, as the crow flies,” represents a significant savings for customers. He said the new line will solve all the same constraints as the original design but with a better benefit-to-cost ratio. MISO has already performed economic and reliability analyses on the shorter route. Transmission owners Xcel Energy and ITC Holdings will still build the line.

Witmeier said the JTIQ portfolio, which was finalized in 2021, is subject to revisions as MISO and SPP perform their annual transmission planning. He also said since the revised line remains wholly in Minnesota, it won’t require a change in permitting jurisdiction.

MISO has yet to reveal how much ratepayers can expect to save on the shorter line. Last month, the RTOs announced that the portfolio’s cost estimate had nearly doubled to $1.9 billion from a little more than $1 billion in 2021 due to the rising cost of materials and labor and more accurate line route estimates. (See JTIQ Portfolio Cost Estimate Nearly Doubles to $1.9B.)

Witmeier said he didn’t think the more economical line would affect the states’ application for the JTIQ portfolio to receive up to a 50% funding match from the Department of Energy’s Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships program.

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FERC OKs Incentives for Republic Transmission on MISO’s 1st Competitive LRTP Project

FERC approved LS Power’s request for rate incentives for the first competitive project surfacing from MISO’s long-range transmission plan (LRTP).

On Tuesday, FERC allowed LS Power’s Republic Transmission an abandoned plant incentive if the $77 million Hiple 345-kV line at the Indiana-Michigan border is canceled or abandoned for reasons beyond Republic’s control (ER23-1924). The commission’s approval elicited a rebuke of transmission rate incentives in general from Commissioner Mark Christie.

The Hiple line is the first competitively bid line segment to emerge from MISO’s LRTP and could be taken from Republic through Indiana’s new right of first refusal law, which gives incumbent developers the right to build projects recommended by RTOs. MISO awarded Republic the right to construction in June. (See MISO Picks Republic Transmission for 1st LRTP Competitive Project.)

Republic acknowledged that its status as selected developer could be in jeopardy in its request for the abandoned plant incentive. It said it “faces risks from incumbent utility opposition to competitive transmission” and that “even though the law did not take effect until July 1, 2023, the incumbent transmission owner may litigate and oppose Republic’s construction and ownership of the project in other ways.”

Competitive developer NextEra Energy lost its bid to construct what would have been the first competitive transmission project in MISO South because of Texas’ ROFR law. FERC recently denied NextEra’s request for a stay on MISO’s termination of the project. (See FERC Briefs: Orders Addressing Arguments Raised on Rehearing.) Next Era this week filed a petition for review with the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Republic also said it faces uncertainty over “significant regulatory and permitting, financial and construction risks,” including the unpredictability of the future fleet transition, which is the onus behind the line. The point of interconnection with Michigan transmission developer METC at the Indiana-Michigan border also is uncertain and will be determined by the route approved by the Michigan Public Service Commission.

FERC said Republic “demonstrated a nexus between its requested incentive and its planned investment.”

“We find that Republic has demonstrated that the Hiple project faces certain regulatory, environmental and siting risks that are beyond Republic’s control and could lead to the Hiple project’s abandonment,” FERC said.

Commissioner Christie said that while he agreed with FERC’s decision, it is time to “revisit the array of incentives offered to transmission developers, including the abandoned plant incentive … as well as the [construction work in progress] incentive and the RTO participation adder.”

Christie said FERC granting rate incentives of late “has become nothing more than a check-the-box exercise,” with no real examination as to whether developers are shouldering substantial challenges and risks.

He said while the construction work in progress incentive “effectively makes consumers the bank” for transmission projects, the abandoned plant incentive forces them to be insurers as well.

“This incentive allows transmission developers to recover from consumers the costs of investments in projects that fail to materialize and thus do not benefit consumers,” Christie wrote. He asked that FERC reevaluate the incentives to “ensure that all the costs and risks associated with transmission construction are not unfairly inflicted on consumers while transmission developers and owners stand to gain all the financial reward.”

Finally, Christie said he supported limiting the RTO participation adder to the “three years following a transmitting utility’s initial membership in an RTO.”

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MISO Creating Means to Gauge Impacts of DER Interconnections

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO says it will add a study to its planning process early next year to identify transmission reliability issues caused by distributed energy resources.

The study will mimic the style of its affected system study process with other RTOs.

MISO said it will create a technical screening process for interconnecting DERs to test for reliability impacts to the bulk electric system. The grid operator said it will begin screening for when it will need to perform studies on interconnecting DERs in October and initiate the first DER affected system study cycle Feb. 22. MISO asked its transmission owners to submit information on the potential for DER injections at their substations by Dec. 1.

Speaking at a July 19 Planning Advisory Committee, MISO’s Patrick Dalton said the RTO and its transmission owners will evaluate the need for a review of DERs when they can inject 5 MW of power at the substation level during system peak load and if they can force a 1% change in line loading. TOs will screen for the 5-MW injection capability, while the RTO will ascertain whether the DERs could influence a 1% line-loading change.

If the DER is shown to impact both reliability criteria, MISO will issue a report that will trigger its existing facilities study and could lead to network upgrades.

“MISO has not identified reasons that a DER affected system study would trigger the need to open new regulatory proceedings or to modify existing state-based interconnection rules,” Dalton said.

The RTO is updating its business practice manuals to incorporate the new study. It said it doesn’t require FERC permission to add the new study process.

ITC Holdings’ Ruth Kloecker said many of MISO’s transmission owners lack a “cohesive format” for communicating with distribution companies on DER reliability.

“I think that’s a big problem for MISO kicking off these studies,” she said. “We won’t have the data that’s necessary to do these studies.”

MISO staff said it’s important to move ahead with any information it can glean.

Meanwhile, MISO is also working on how it will incorporate more DER aggregations into its planning.

Currently, owners of DER aggregations aren’t required to submit modeling information to MISO. The RTO may make modeling submittals mandatory for larger DER aggregations sometime beyond 2023.

MISO reports that members are providing more details on DERs than in the past. For 2022 modeling, MISO recorded 411 MW of DERs at 651 locations, up from 30 MW at just eight locations in 2019.

In April, Planning Modeling Manager Amanda Schiro said DER “volumes are low and scattered throughout the system,” making planning impacts negligible thus far.

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X-energy, Energy Northwest to Develop up to 12 SMR Nukes

X-energy and Energy Northwest will partner on the development of up to 12 of X-energy’s Xe-100 small modular reactors to be located at a site in Central Washington, according to a Wednesday announcement from the two companies.

Under the joint development agreement, the 80-MW SMRs will come online in phases near Energy Northwest’s Columbia Generating Station, a 1,207-MW nuclear reactor 10 miles north of Richland, Wash. The first of the reactors is scheduled for completion by the end of 2030, with additional reactors added after, based on demand, according to Jason Herbert, Energy Northwest’s senior director for external strategy.

The company intends to apply to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to license 12 reactors even though “right now, based on our utility, interest and offtake, we’re looking at probably … a four- to eight-module plant to start with,” Herbert said in an interview with NetZero Insider. “But we want to license for 12, so that in the future, let’s say, a utility comes to us and says, ‘Hey, we need 160 MW in three years.’ We can add in two more.”

If all 12 were built, the total capacity would be 960 MW, according to the announcement.

Energy Northwest is a Washington state public power joint operating agency, providing electricity to 28 public power utilities in the state. Other generation includes hydroelectric, wind and solar, and storage.

“As the Northwest region of the United States pursues a future clean energy grid, it is clear it will need new sources of dependable, carbon-free power,” said Bob Schuetz, CEO of Energy Northwest. “X-energy’s Xe-100 advanced reactor technology possesses many attributes ideally suited to a carbon-constrained electric system, and this agreement reflects our determination to deliver the technologies to meet growing clean energy needs.”

Under the Clean Energy Transformation Act (SB 5116) signed in 2019, Washington is committed to a carbon-free electric power system by 2045.

For X-energy, the announcement represents a critical step in building a pipeline of projects for the Xe-100, which the company has developed with $1.1 billion in funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act as part of the Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program.

The program is supporting two advanced reactor demonstrations, the Xe-100 and the Natrium reactor developed by TerraPower, the company started by Microsoft founder Bill Gates.

The Xe-100 is a high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor, which uses small “pebbles” of graphite-covered nuclear fuel and can produce steam for high-heat industrial processes, with temperatures of 750 degrees Celsius, or close to 1,400 degrees Fahrenheit. At 80 MW, the X-energy reactor is designed to be modular so two or more units can be combined for heat or power or both.

As part of the DOE program, the company’s first four Xe-100s will be sited at a Dow Chemical plant on the Texas Gulf Coast, where they will be used to provide the high-temperature process heat the company needs to produce chemicals. The Dow reactors are being built to provide both power and high-temperature process heat, which X-energy will be able to use in Washington, said Ben Reinke, X-energy’s vice president of global business development.

Speaking at an industrial decarbonization event in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Reinke said the Energy Northwest reactors are being planned as “most likely [an] all-electric play. However, when you have low-cost electricity, you start to draw a lot of industry to the area. So, I think what we’ll see over time is an ecosystem built around energy units in Central Washington, hopefully decarbonizing not only electricity, but also potentially process heat as well.”

On Time, on Budget

The challenge ahead for X-energy is delivering its projects for both Dow and Energy Northwest on time and on budget — a goal the U.S. nuclear industry has yet to achieve.

The 92 reactors currently online in the U.S. provide 20% of the country’s power and 50% of its carbon-free power, and both the industry and the Biden administration are framing nuclear energy as an essential source of firm, dispatchable, carbon-free power.

But the only new reactors built in the U.S. in the past decade are Southern Co.’s two Vogtle nuclear plants in Georgia, which are now seven years behind schedule, with a cost that has ballooned from $14 billion to more than $30 billion. The first unit, Vogtle 3, was scheduled to come online in June, but encountered yet another delay due to a problem in the hydrogen system used to cool the main electrical generator, according to an Associated Press report.

Reinke said X-energy is trying to plan ahead to avoid delays and cost overruns. For the Dow project, the company is “fully designing our reactor before we break ground on construction, something the nuclear industry has never done before,” he said. “For example, we brought key partners in on the design of components and systems. We’ve gone ahead and made awards early on, earlier than a typical project might, to be able to bring into our final design period in the process these key partners who will ultimately be manufacturing the components and systems to make sure that what we’re designing is something they can manufacture.”

X-energy has also included construction teams in the design process to ensure a workable “construction laydown plan,” Reinke said.

Fuel for the Xe-100 is yet another challenge. Like other advanced reactors, the Xe-100 uses high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU). The U.S. has historically depended on Russia for HALEU, but in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is working on standing up a domestic supply chain.

X-energy expects it will get the fuel it needs for the Dow project from DOE, Reinke said. He pointed to DOE’s HALEU Availability Program, which received $700 million from the Inflation Reduction Act to spur development of a domestic supply chain.

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NERC Committee Takes Action on Standards Projects

NERC’s Standards Committee moved forward on more than half a dozen standards projects during a busy meeting on Wednesday. While the committee usually meets by conference call each month, Wednesday’s gathering was held in person at the headquarters of the Midwest Reliability Organization in St. Paul, Minn.

Push for Formal Comment on SAR

First on the agenda at Wednesday’s meeting was a standard authorization request (SAR) to modify reliability standard MOD-031-3 (demand and energy data), in order to allow planning coordinators to obtain existing and forecasted information on distributed energy resources (DER) from distribution providers and transmission planners. NERC’s System Performance Impact of Distributed Energy Resources Working Group (SPIDERWG) developed the SAR, which was endorsed by the Reliability and Security Technical Committee (RSTC) in June.

NERC staff brought the SAR to the Standards Committee with a proposal to authorize posting it for an initial 30-day informal industry comment period, which raised eyebrows with some members. SPP’s Charles Yeung asked why the proposal was not for a formal comment period, which would require the SAR drafting team to address comments in the final draft SAR.

Latrice Harkness, NERC’s director of standards development, explained that under recent changes to NERC’s Standards Processes Manual, formal comment may not be required for SARs proposed by the RSTC. However, Yeung observed that the SAR actually was proposed by the SPIDERWG, and while that group does report to the RSTC, he asked whether the full RSTC had provided input into the SAR. Chair Amy Casuscelli of Xcel Energy confirmed that it had not.

As a result Yeung moved to modify the proposal to post the SAR for a formal comment period. After the motion was seconded, the committee approved it unanimously.

FERC Winter Weather Project Moves Forward

Next, the committee turned to FERC’s order to update TPL-001-5.1 (transmission system planning performance requirements), which the commission issued at its June meeting. (See FERC Approves More Extreme Weather Rules.)

FERC found that the current reliability standards do “not obligate transmission planners and planning coordinators to consider extreme hot and cold weather in their transmission planning assessments.” The commission gave NERC the choice of either updating TPL-001-5.1 or creating a new standard that contains such a requirement (RM22-10); the SAR submitted by NERC staff did not specify which option the project should choose, but left the decision to the SAR drafting team.

Like the previous SAR, the proposal that NERC staff brought to the meeting would authorize posting the draft SAR for an informal rather than a formal comment period of 45 days. In this case, the change was because the project was ordered by FERC, and NERC’s Rules of Procedure allow such projects to skip the formal comment phase.

Although members discussed changing this proposal to require a formal comment period as well, a NERC staffer noted that “many issues behind the directive were fully litigated in the FERC proceeding, so our hands are tied to some extent.” The staffer also reminded attendees that NERC must submit the new or modified standard by December 2024, and suggested that because “traditionally TPL revision projects have taken some time,” the standard drafting team’s (SDT) time would be better used focusing on the standard rather than replying to industry comments.

After this exchange, the committee voted unanimously to approve the proposal as written.

Other Standards Actions

The remaining items attracted little comment, though in some cases members asked NERC staff to make minor changes to wording for proposals that were going out for public comment. The approved items were proposals to:

    • Add members to the SDT for Project 2021-03 (CIP-002);
    • Accept the SAR for Project 2022-05 (modifications to CIP-008 reporting threshold);
    • Accept the SAR for Project 2022-04 (EMT modeling);
    • Post proposed reliability standards EOP-004-5, PRC-002-5, and PRC-028-1 (found on pages 69, 108, and 156 of the agenda) for 45-day formal comment and ballot periods; and
    • Post proposed revisions to NERC’s definition of Area Control Error Diversity Interchange for a 45-day formal comment and ballot.
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New York Seeks to Define Zero Emissions

New York regulators’ first steps to broaden the path to a zero-emissions future have drawn limited response from stakeholders.

The New York Public Service Commission received only five comments on its May 18 order to begin filling the power generation gaps likely to arise in the transition away from fossil fuels. It is part of Case 15-E-0302, the PSC’s implementation of a large-scale renewable energy program and a clean energy standard.

The issue is potentially contentious, as the order states that favored renewable technologies such as solar and wind may not provide enough power and that more controversial alternatives such as hydrogen, nuclear and biofuel may be needed.

But the issue is increasingly pressing: Less than two months after the PSC order, NYISO reported that the nation’s largest city could face a reliability margin deficit of up to 446 MW as soon as summer 2025 because of a wave of mandated fossil generation retirements and the slow pace of replacement power coming online. (See NYC to Fall 446 MW Short for 2025, NYISO Reports.)

Meanwhile, leaders are pushing to electrify the state to the greatest extent possible as they carry out the landmark Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019. But many renewable generation projects have been delayed or canceled, and the new generators that do come online are intermittent.

To start the process of addressing this, the PSC in its May 18 order asked stakeholders to address a series of questions, including:

    • how to define “zero emissions”;
    • whether advanced nuclear power, long-duration storage, green hydrogen, renewable natural gas (RNG), carbon capture and sequestration, virtual power plants, distributed energy resources and demand response resources can be considered zero-emissions sources;
    • what other resources should be considered;
    • whether efforts to achieve zero emissions by the 2040 target should focus solely on resource adequacy or include a broader set of technologies that could be integrated into the transmission and distribution systems;
    • whether lifecycle emissions should be considered when characterizing energy resources;
    • how RNG should be considered, given the limited feedstocks in the state; and
    • what re-examination and possible revision to the tiers of the Clean Energy Standard might be needed.

Some of these would seem to be red flags for environmental advocates and others who have pushed for climate mitigation measures in New York. But the only responses were from industry groups pitching their solutions, as well as from four members of the state Senate’s Republican minority pressing their existing agenda of an all-of-the-above approach to the energy transition. This includes splitting atoms and burning various combustible matter, two solutions that are opposed by many in the environmental movement.

Minority Report

Republican Sens. Mario Mattera, Tom O’Mara and Mark Walczyk, all members of the Energy and Telecommunications Committee, and Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt said the state needs an all-hands-on-deck approach as it decarbonizes, because it will need nearly 100 GW of new generation by 2040.

They pointed out that solar’s capacity factor is only about 14% in New York. Onshore wind is much higher, but still only 20 to 26%.

“Hydrogen, nuclear, renewable natural gas, bioenergy and sewer heat recovery provide more reliable sources of energy than wind and solar, as they would not be intermittent,” they wrote. “To be clear, New York state cannot meet the mandates in the CLCPA by solely focusing on wind and solar energy generation.”

The senators urged the PSC to consider as zero-emissions all types of hydrogen — regardless of how it was generated. Non-green hydrogen generation is another target of environmental advocates.

Making Gas

Berq RNG and Strategic Project Management submitted mostly identical comments with the American Biogas Council, urging the PSC to give greater consideration to the biogas sector as a means of achieving its goals.

They said New York does not use the full statewide potential of its waste-to-energy biogenic resources, such as landfills and manure lagoons.

Industry data show 191 active biogas systems in the state, they said, but indicate there is enough renewable methane available to power more than 500 systems. Buildout of these facilities is also a significant opportunity to divert organic waste from landfills and to reduce emissions of methane, they said.

They urged that “zero emissions” be defined to recognize any molecule and any system for converting it to energy that can deliver a lifecycle carbon emission profile of zero or below.

Water Flow

The Low Impact Hydropower Institute urged that when totaling up lifecycle emissions, a leveled impact assessment be used, taking into account the project lifespan.

For example, it said, building a hydropower facility generates a high upfront emission impact, but its impact may be less when considered over its very long lifespan.

It noted that old and new energy resources alike, including hydropower, have exacerbated environmental justice concerns, but the process laid out by New York will begin to address that. It suggested New York look to Massachusetts, where regulations try to recognize not just renewable energy but also, in the case of hydropower, resources that reinvest in their natural surroundings in an accountable, annual and transparent manner that meets specific outcome requirements.

LIHI offered itself as a resource, saying its criteria have “helped facilitate healthy river flows, vibrant aquatic communities, and accessible recreational opportunities across the state and region.”

Pumped Hydro

Serium Energy Storage, which is pursuing development of closed-loop underground hydroelectric energy storage, pointed out what others have flagged: the need for large amounts of long-duration storage to maintain reliability in New York when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.

Closed-loop pumped hydro is the perfect fit for several reasons, Serium said: It is a proven and mature technology; it has a more-than-100-year history in New York; it is compatible with carbon-reduction and environmental stewardship; and it does not face the limits that batteries do.

Serium said the major drawbacks of surface pumped hydro, including environmental impacts, are not an issue with the underground systems it proposes. The company asked the PSC to add hydroelectric storage to its “zero emissions” list, and to begin procurement soon, given its long timeframe for approval.

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PJM Recounts Emergency Conditions, Actions in Elliott Report

PJM on Monday released a report detailing a litany of emergency actions taken on Dec. 23 and 24 as a severe winter storm sent temperatures plunging across the region and containing new data on generation and market performance.

The RTO’s analysis of the storm, commonly called Elliott, provides 30 recommended changes to forecasting, modeling, accreditation and market rules. It says that PJM was well positioned in the days leading up to the storm, but a series of unforeseen factors — including a sharper than expected drop in temperatures, an unprecedented amount of forced outages and abnormal consumer behavior around the holiday weekend — led to several emergency actions having to be taken to maintain reliability, including two blocks of performance assessment intervals (PAIs) in which generator underperformance led to $1.8 billion in penalties.

A workshop has been scheduled for July 24 to discuss the report.

“As documented in this report, PJM was prepared for the 2022/2023 winter, as well as Winter Storm Elliott, based on the information available, and conducted extensive preparations and communications with members, adjacent systems and the natural gas industry in advance of the storm, in addition to the regular steps PJM takes each year to prepare for winter,” the report said. “Despite numerous refinements to both the capacity market rules and winter preparation requirements that came out of the 2014 polar vortex, Winter Storm Uri in [February] 2021 and other recent examples of increasingly extreme weather patterns, Winter Storm Elliott created a convergence of circumstances that strained the grid.”

Recommendations

Many of the report’s findings have guided PJM’s recommended changes to the capacity market currently being considered under the Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) process, including shifting to a seasonal capacity market, an approach to risk modeling that lays more of the reliability focus on the winter and fuel security requirements. The timing of the report’s release has been viewed as critical by many stakeholders participating in CIFP meetings, with voting on proposals scheduled for next month. (See PJM Completes CIFP Presentation; Stakeholders Present Alternatives.)

The recommendations outside the CIFP process include increasing education and training for members around emergency procedures and reporting requirements; evaluating the expected load reduction that a voltage reduction could yield as load composition changes; and exploring ways of increasing synchronized reserve performance through procurement practices, compensation and the amount procured.

The report also includes several recommendations related to the intersection between the electric and natural gas industry, such as aligning when gas generators are scheduled in PJM’s markets and their fuel nomination cycles, as well as improvements to how they report unit-specific parameters to PJM to improve awareness of their availability. Those proposals are under discussion at the Electric-Gas Coordination Senior Task Force.

The report also states that PJM plans next month to open a stakeholder discussion on whether the reserve market design, including prices and performance incentives, aligns with operational needs.

Generator Performance

The forced outage rate for PJM capacity resources throughout the storm was one of the highest PJM has seen in a severe winter weather event, with 24% of resources being offline — exceeding the 22% forced outage rate seen during the polar vortex. Forced outages peaked at 46 GW at 7 a.m. on Dec. 24 and “remained at an unacceptably high level through Dec. 25.”

Many of the outages were not immediately reported, resulting in the RTO’s operators being told the unit would not be able to operate when they attempted to dispatch the generator.

“While generators are required to provide updates on their operating parameters, including operating status, ramp times and fuel availability, in 92% of generator outages, PJM operators had an hour’s notice or less — in most cases, PJM was informed of outages when dispatchers called generators to request them to turn on,” the report stated.

Gas-fired generators made up about 70% of the outages, with gas supply issues being the single largest cause, followed by freezing and problems with plant equipment.

Natural gas well freeze-offs were a major contributor to generators being offline, with production in Ohio halved and down by about 20% in Pennsylvania, with the impact particularly acute for larger gas generators that require a uniform supply of fuel at high pressure. The timing of the storm falling on a holiday weekend also meant that gas trading markets would not be open for a prolonged period, limiting the liquidity of fuel.

“Many gas buyers, especially [local distribution companies] and other customers with more predictable gas usage levels, purchase their gas supplies on Friday for the Saturday, Sunday and Monday gas days. Gas generators in many cases need to buy their gas supply each day of the weekend period based on their awarded or anticipated dispatch. With the majority of gas traded on Friday, the market for gas commodity can become less liquid, resulting in increased supply scarcity and potentially higher intraday gas prices,” the report said.

Several portions of PJM’s and stakeholders’ CIFP proposals are centered around improving gas reliability by revising their accreditation and creating new fuel requirements. On July 10, PJM presented a proposed dual-fuel status for resources that can start and operate on a backup fuel with at least 48 hours of storage. It also discussed creating additional data reporting around whether gas generators have firm fuel or not and potentially reflecting that in their accreditation.

Coal resources made up about 16% of forced outages, largely because of issues with boilers.

Wind resources overperformed during the storm, contributing 13.7% of the bonus megawatts across the two PAIs, despite only making up 1.9% of installed capacity. Nuclear generators also exceeded their commitments, making up 34.5% of the bonus power while representing 17.7% of capacity.

The gas and coal units that did operate performed well throughout the emergency conditions, providing 29.2% and 17.3% of the bonus power.

Synchronized reserve resources also performed poorly throughout the storm. While the first deployment had a response rate of 86.4%, which PJM attributed in part to the short duration of that event, the average was 47.8% across the five deployments, some of which were hours long. PJM noted that deployments are uncommon, especially clustered in a short time frame.

“Five synchronized reserve events over a two-day period is extremely unusual. All five of the events on Dec. 23 and Dec. 24 exceeded 10 minutes in duration, which is again extraordinary. Since the start of 2021, there have been 47 synchronized reserve events, of which only 17 (36%) were more than 10 minutes in duration, and five of these 17 occurred during Winter Storm Elliott,” the report said.

Demand response resources provided significantly less than curtailment service providers (CSPs) anticipated they could provide when called upon. When PJM dispatched 4,336 MW of DR on Dec. 23, providers estimated they could provide the full amount, but PJM’s analysis of customer load data suggests that only 1.1 GW was delivered. When all available DR was dispatched leading up to the Dec. 24 morning peak, CSPs estimated they could deliver 7,400 MW of the 7,522 dispatched, but PJM said that only 2.4 GW was provided.

“The significant difference between the data provided to PJM about load curtailment capability and the actual performance clearly identify an opportunity and need to improve the rules and processes regarding load management capability estimates,” the report said.

PJM Operations

In the days leading up to the storm, the conditions appeared to be within the norms that PJM had experienced in the past: Temperatures weren’t forecast to be abnormal, and historically loads for the days leading up to Christmas had been overforecast. On the day before the storm’s arrival, PJM increased its load forecast for Dec. 23 from 124.6 GW to 127 GW and procured additional capacity and reserves above what was cleared in the day-ahead market. Actual loads came in at 136 GW and were nearly 10 GW above forecast the following day at 131.1 GW.

While providing exports to the Tennessee Valley Authority and other neighbors, some of whom were in emergency conditions, PJM entered its first of four synchronized reserve deployments at 10:14 a.m. in part from numerous generators tripping offline and failing to start, causing the area control error (ACE) to fall. As loads ramped up substantially higher than expected for the Dec. 23 evening peak, many of the generators PJM attempted to dispatch were tripping offline or failing to start, with a rate of 1.8 GW per hour at 2 p.m.

“PJM found that it was unexpectedly and rapidly exhausting its operating and primary reserves because of the unexpected generator outages,” the report said.

By 4 p.m. the ACE had fallen to nearly ‑3 GW, prompting PJM to begin curtailing exports. It also issued a pre-emergency load management reduction action to deploy DR resources and implemented a maximum generation action, directing generators to operate above their economic maximum outputs. This began the first block of PAIs, which would last five and a half hours, or 66 five-minute intervals.

PJM remained in emergency conditions until 11 p.m., but the nighttime load “valley” remained unprecedentedly high, 40 GW over the next highest valley in the past decade, limiting the ability for pumped hydro plants to be refilled. PJM provided some exports to neighbors that were in emergency conditions, and synchronized reserve events were called at 12:05, 2:23 and 4:23 a.m. on Dec. 24.

PJM began curtailing load again at 4 a.m. on Dec. 24 and issued a call for consumers to reduce their electric usage until at least 10 a.m. On top of forced outages, about 6 GW that was scheduled to come online for the morning peak failed to start and PJM re-entered emergency conditions at 4:20 a.m. with DR deployments and a maximum generation action five minutes later. At 4:52 a.m. it issued a voltage-reduction alert.

Approaching the morning peak at 8:30, which capped out at 130 GW of load, PJM was receiving emergency imports from NYISO and TVA, and Duke Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress were shedding load. The report states that forced outages around the morning peak amounted to 41 GW and 200 unit trips. PJM issued a voltage-reduction warning at 7:15 a.m. and remained in emergency conditions until it canceled the maximum generation action and DR deployment at 10 p.m.

At 4:58 a.m., an 850-MW generator tripped offline, causing the ACE to fall below 1,500 MW and prompting the start of a NERC Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) event, which requires that PJM recover ACE to at least ‑630 MW within 15 minutes. PJM called for an additional 500 MW of shared reserves from the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, having received 1 GW shortly before the start of the DCS, and was able to recover the ACE after 15 minutes and 52 seconds.

At the height of the emergency, the report said that if PJM lost emergency imports or another large generator tripped, a voltage-reduction action may have been necessary.

“If another large unit was lost or imports from NYISO into PJM were cut, PJM would have considered initiating a voltage-reduction action, which would have resulted in approximately 1,700 MW of relief. … If necessary, this action would have been followed by a manual load dump warning to communicate load dump allocations to transmission owners,” the report said.

Several complaints to FERC related to non-performance penalties accrued during the storm argue that PJM violated its tariff by continuing to export while implementing emergency procedures. The Elliott report laid out a series of instances in which PJM curtailed non-firm exports as conditions in the RTO worsened, but it stated that cutting all aid to its neighbors wouldn’t have prevented PJM from entering emergency conditions and would have likely worsened emergencies in surrounding regions that were in load shed. (See FERC Sends Elliott Complaints Against PJM to Settlement Judge.)

“Even if the operators had cut all non-firm exports, there would have been a deficit of at least 1,789 MW needed to satisfy PJM load and firm exports. Pre-emergency and emergency actions thus would have been necessary to satisfy capacity needs even if all non-firm exports had been cut,” the report said.

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FERC Accepts Results of ISO-NE FCA 17

FERC accepted the results of ISO-NE’s Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) 17 on Tuesday, ruling that the issues raised by a group of climate activists are outside the scope of the proceeding (ER23-1435).

ISO-NE held FCA 17 in March of this year, procuring resources for the capacity commitment period that extends from June 2026 through May 2027. A group of climate and environmental organizations including No Coal No Gas, 350 Mass, Lexington Climate Action Network and the Berkshire Environmental Action Team, along with 149 individuals, submitted comments protesting the auction, arguing that the design of the auction favors fossil fuels over renewables.

“ISO-NE’s Forward Capacity Market structure, particularly the continued payments to fossil fuel generators, poses extreme risk to ratepayers, the climate and grid reliability,” No Coal No Gas wrote in its initial comments. “FCA 17 awards hundreds of millions of ratepayer dollars to keep the oldest, dirtiest, least economical fossil fuel powered generators online for use as peaker plants. By propping up these failing fossil fuel powered generators as stand-by peaker plants and sending bonus payments to base load generators, ISO-NE is preventing a just transition on our dime.”

Meanwhile, ISO-NE argued that it conducted the auction in accordance with its tariff with no preference toward any type of resource, and that complaints about the structural design of the FCM are outside the scope of the FERC proceeding.

“We’re governed by federal law that requires our markets to be open to all resources that can provide the required services,” an ISO-NE spokesperson told RTO Insider. “These payments are not subsidies, but rather the result of a competitive market in which all resources compete to provide grid services at the lowest cost.”

Answering ISO-NE’s arguments, No Coal No Gas wrote that the public has not been provided with adequate opportunity to engage with and give input on the FCA process. No Coal No Gas disputed the results of the prior two auctions (ER21-1226 and ER22-1417), while FERC ruled both times the issues raised are beyond the scope of the proceedings.

“Community stakeholders have an extremely limited ability to contribute to the Commission’s responsibilities regarding the administration of our electric grid, and the ISO wishes to bar comments appropriately filed through one of our only opportunities to so contribute as outside the scope of the proceedings,” the No Coal No Gas coalition wrote, adding that the one ISO-NE forum dedicated to public engagement, the Consumer Liaison Group, has no direct effect on RTO policy.

FERC again sided with ISO-NE for FCA 17, agreeing with the RTO that the issues raised about payments to fossil fuel resources are outside the proceeding’s scope.

“No party has argued or provided evidence that ISO-NE failed to conduct FCA 17 in accordance with its Tariff,” FERC wrote. “The protests of NCNG, other organizations and Pro Se Commenters raise issues that are outside the scope of this proceeding because they do not bear on the sole question here — namely, whether ISO-NE conducted FCA 17 in accordance with its own Tariff rules. Instead, these protests focus on the FCM market design, as NCNG itself recognizes when it urges ISO-NE and the Commission to redesign the FCM to focus primarily on climate change in its decision-making.”

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No Shortfall Anticipated for Summer of 2027, ISO-NE Says

No energy shortfall is anticipated for the summer of 2027, ISO-NE told the NEPOOL Reliability and Transmission committees on Wednesday, adding that some reserve shortfall appeared in just one of the worst-case scenarios modeled.

The results are part of ISO-NE’s ongoing study with the Electric Power Research Institute looking at how extreme weather affects grid reliability, taking into account how climate change is projected to affect the probability and magnitude of extreme weather. The RTO noted that the expected growth of utility-scale and behind-the-meter solar, offshore wind and storage all contributed to minimizing reliability risks.

While results indicated the New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line would help reduce reserve shortfall in the worst case studied, the RTO found the presence of the Everett Marine Terminal (EMT) did not significantly impact the reserve shortfall.

“Results with and without EMT are similar, as there is minimal depletion of stored fuels in any cases,” said Stephen George of ISO-NE, adding the reserve shortfall seen in the study was manageable. “Cases where reserve shortfalls occur are representative of capacity deficiency conditions, which are managed through ISO’s Operating Procedure No. 4 (OP-4), Actions During a Capacity Deficiency.”

Aaron Patterson of The NorthBridge Group, representing Constellation Energy, the owner of both EMT and the Mystic Generating Station, EMT’s main customer, criticized how the winter iteration of the study modeled the availability of LNG with and without EMT. (See Limited Exposure to Supply Shortfall for ISO-NE During Extreme Weather.)

“The results of the ISO-NE/EPRI study with respect to the impact of EMT retirement are not credible,” Patterson said. “The assumption that the retirement of EMT would have no impact on regional LNG stocks over the course of a winter event is not supported by any data or analysis, and a review of history and the demonstrated capabilities of EMT compared to other facilities suggest that it is not accurate.”

Patterson said the ISO-NE assumption that the loss of Everett wouldn’t significantly affect the amount of LNG available to the region “drives the general conclusion of the study with respect to EMT that retirement of EMT has no material impact on regional electric reliability during extreme winter events.”

While ISO-NE’s modeling assumed the two other LNG facilities servicing the region would be able to make up for the loss of EMT, Constellation argued this assumption is overly optimistic.

Patterson said Everett historically has had an LNG inventory of 6 Bcf during the coldest 21-day periods of the past five years, equating to almost 60% of the available LNG projected by ISO-NE’s 2027 modeling.

“Given this outsize contribution from EMT, the unsupported assumption that the other two facilities would be able to effectively more than double their assumed contribution to LNG stocks without EMT is not credible,” Patterson said.

ISO-NE argued that the LNG assumptions used in the study are reasonable, noting they ran the winter analysis with a range of LNG inventories, including a low LNG scenario that reduced the starting inventory by 3 Bcf (from 6.5 to 3.5 Bcf total).

The study’s results for the winter of 2032 likely will be shared at the Reliability Committee meeting in August, while the summer 2032 results likely will be available in September, ISO-NE said.

Increased Regional Network Service Costs

David Burnham of Eversource told the committees the projected regional network service (RNS) costs for the next five years likely will increase annually by approximately $10 per kW-year. RNS costs are projected to reach $196 per kW-year by 2028, compared to $141.6 expected for 2023.

RNS costs are the costs of transmission service paid by transmission customers in New England. For 2023, asset condition projects made up more than $570 million of the $1.3 billion in total projected regional costs, while regional system plan projects are expected to cost more than $540 million. In 2024, asset condition costs are expected to increase to $890 million, while system plan projects are anticipated to cost more than $300 million, with total costs nearing $1.4 billion.

Eversource Project Costs Rise

Eversource presented to the committees about a series of ongoing projects, including a group of projects in the Greater Boston area, which have ballooned in cost to $921 million, compared to the original 2017 estimate of $572 million.

The utility company cited unanticipated underground interferences, work hour restrictions, soil management and groundwater treatment costs, and material costs as the drivers of the increase.

Eversource also presented on a series of projects in Eastern Connecticut, including upgrades at several substations and rebuilds of multiple 115-kV lines. The company requested a total transmission cost allocation of nearly $200 million, with the final components of the projects to be active by fall of this year.

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Avangrid, Utilities Reach Deal to Cancel Commonwealth Wind PPAs

Avangrid and three electric utilities have reached a deal to terminate the power purchase agreements for Commonwealth Wind, the 1,230-MW offshore wind farm Avangrid says it can no longer build under terms of the PPAs.

The developer would pay Eversource, National Grid and Unitil a combined $48 million under three proposals posted Monday by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities. (DPU 22-70/22-71/22-72.)

The issue has been percolating for nearly a year, after Avangrid said the project was no longer tenable under the terms negotiated due to rapidly rising costs and interest rates.

Avangrid sought a pause in DPU’s review of the PPAs, and when the three utilities refused to negotiate, it sought to terminate the PPAs. DPU refused, sending the matter to a state-level court, where it remains an open case, at least for now.

Commonwealth Wind is not the only project whose developers say they cannot go forward under terms negotiated. Developers of Beacon, Empire, Ocean Wind 1, Park City, SouthCoast and Sunrise also have sought concessions that would raise the cost of the electricity they produce.

Attorneys for Eversource, National Grid and Unitil on Thursday asked DPU to rule on the termination requests within 30 days.

The proposals, similarly worded except for the dollar amounts, call for Commonwealth Wind to pay Unitil $480,000, National Grid $21,619,200 and Eversource $25,900,800 after DPU approves the terminations.

Avangrid has said it remains committed to the Commonwealth Wind project and hopes to rebid it in Massachusetts’ next offshore wind solicitation.

The draft structure of that solicitation, announced in May, includes a provision for indexed pricing, allowing developers to hedge against unknown future inflationary effects during the yearslong development process.

New York offered a similar option in its latest offshore wind solicitation. Previous solicitations did not contain such a provision, and now some of the developers holding contracts issued previously — for the Beacon, Empire and Sunrise projects, 4,230 MW in total — want the option as well.

There was a bit of turnabout to Sunrise Wind telling New York regulators last month that it needed more money to go forward with the 924-MW project — Ørsted is a 50-50 partner in Sunrise with Eversource, which for months had been refusing requests by Commonwealth and SouthCoast in Massachusetts for more money.

Eversource is in the final stages of ending its partnership with Ørsted and exiting offshore wind development altogether.