FERC has approved a PJM proposal to limit capacity prices to between $175 and $325/MW-day for the next two Base Residual Auctions (BRAs), resolving a complaint from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro alleging there was potential for prices to soar above what is necessary to maintain resource adequacy (ER25-1357).
The commission found that PJM’s capacity market is facing conditions outside the bounds considered in the 2022 Quadrennial Review, noting the RTO’s filings highlighted a confluence of a tightened auction schedule, load growth, generation deactivations, a backlogged interconnection queue and external constraints to resource entry such as permitting and supply chain challenges.
FERC said in the April 21 order that PJM and the Shapiro administration proposed a temporary measure to add a “collar” to the clearing prices for the 2026/27 and 2027/28 capacity auctions while the RTO drafts long-term market changes in the current Quadrennial Review and implements a cluster-based approach to studying projects in its interconnection queue. (See PJM, Shapiro Reach Agreement on Capacity Price Cap and Floor.)
While the price band initially would be set at $175 to $325/MW-day, those values would be readjusted annually based on the accreditation of the reference resource — a dual-fuel combustion turbine generator — and therefore could change.
“We agree with PJM that the price cap and price floor will operate together to narrow the range of potential capacity price outcomes, which will reduce the price volatility under the existing” variable resource requirement curve, FERC said. “In accepting PJM’s proposal, we recognize that several commenters representing both suppliers and consumers support the proposal as a balanced, time-limited approach, and that several additional commenters do not oppose PJM’s proposal.”
The proposal was supported by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, as well as generation owners and utilities including Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, Calpine and Dominion Energy, who commented that it represents a temporary measure to keep costs reasonable while new market rules are developed through the Quadrennial Review.
In his complaint, filed Dec. 30, 2024, Shapiro argued that between a backlogged interconnection queue and an auction schedule that has been delayed repeatedly to the point the 2026/27 BRA is set to be conducted within a year of the start of the corresponding delivery year, developers would have no opportunity to respond to high prices by bringing new resources to market.
In line with PJM’s proposal and statements to stakeholders when it was presented to the Members Committee in February, the commission’s acceptance of the filing included the dismissal of Shapiro’s complaint as moot. (See PJM Presents Capacity Price Cap and Floor to Members Committee.)
A maximum price point has been a part of the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM) since its inception, but the proposal represents the first instance of a price floor being included in auction rules. The Independent Market Monitor and North Carolina Utilities Commission protested against the minimum price, arguing it could require consumers to procure unneeded capacity.
The Monitor also argued that curtailment service providers may seek to take advantage of the price floor by offering a large amount of demand response resources, which the commission found out-of-scope as PJM proposed no changes to DR rules.
PJM said the floor would counterbalance the diminished maximum price by providing revenue certainty to market sellers, which would support near-term investments in capacity. It also wrote it would be unlikely the marginal resource would clear at $175/MW-day or less given the tight market conditions and that the 2025/26 BRA cleared at nearly $270/MW-day.
Shapiro also supported the price floor, arguing it would address the market uncertainty sellers are likely to face over the next two auctions.
The commission wrote that PJM demonstrated the capacity shortage seen in the 2025/26 auction — when just 20.7 MW of offered capacity did not clear — is likely to continue for at least the next two years. It noted that PJM anticipates 4 GW of load growth in the 2026/27 delivery year and 6 GW the following year.
“Given the facts and circumstances presented in this record, we find that the benefits of PJM’s proposed temporary price floor outweigh the potential risk of over-procurement, and therefore find PJM’s proposal for a temporary collar is just and reasonable,” FERC said.
The commission rejected a protest from coal trade association America’s Power that the proposed maximum price would prompt planned resources to drop out of the queue and cause existing generation to deactivate or seek to offer capacity to other regions. It cited analysis of resources that have deactivated in the past after operating on reliability-must-run (RMR) agreements with cost-of-service compensation, finding that a $500/MW-day clearing price would make half of those resources economic, while a $325 clearing price would make them all uneconomic.
The commission wrote that cost-of-service is not comparable to the revenues a resource receives from PJM’s capacity, energy and ancillary service markets.
FERC’s order follows several others approving PJM proposals to rework elements of its capacity market, including requiring intermittent and storage resources to submit capacity offers, including the output of units operating on RMR agreements in the supply stack and reworking how gas resources are modeled in the winter.