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November 18, 2024

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FERC Enforcement Report Details One Closed Probe into Winter Storm Uri

WASHINGTON — FERC on Thursday released its 17th Annual Report on Enforcement, which showed that it has closed down one market manipulation probe into the events around February 2021’s Winter Storm Uri.

The commission still has open, nonpublic investigations into the events around Uri, which led to massive blackouts in Texas where hundreds died and roiled natural gas markets around the country, leading to billions in extra costs for consumers.

“I cannot talk about them,” FERC Chair Willie Phillips said at his post-meeting press conference. “But hear me: For those people who had market manipulation, who committed market manipulation, or if there was any fraud that was imposed upon our consumers — the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Office of Enforcement … will find you, we will punish you, and you will pay the price.”

The investigation FERC closed without action came from a referral of Enforcement’s own Division of Analytics and Surveillance about a gas marketing company that curtailed supply to customers to whom it had delivery obligations by citing force majeure and then sold gas to a different customer at a higher price, the report said.

Enforcement staff reviewed documents and took sworn testimony from employees and determined it lacked evidence to move forward. The firm’s decision to sell gas to a different customer appeared to have been made during a small window of time when the marketing company believed its curtailments would be less substantial.

“Enforcement staff also did not find evidence that the marketing company actively sought out buyers to sell gas to at an elevated price,” the report said. “To the contrary, the purchaser unilaterally reached out to the marketing company requesting gas.”

DAS is regularly watching the electric and natural gas markets that FERC polices, with the report saying in fiscal 2023, its surveillance led to 567,000 screen trips in the electric markets, leading to 43 surveillance inquiries and six referrals for investigation. On the gas side, it had 24,000 screen trips on the year, leading to 27 surveillance inquiries and three referrals for investigation.

The division engaged in enhanced surveillance during “disruptive market events” related to December 2022’s Winter Storm Elliott and a period of high energy prices in the West during the winter of 2022/23. It is continuing to analyze both market events and has already referred some matters related to last winter’s weather events to investigative staff.

Overall, Enforcement opened 19 new investigations and closed nine pending probes without further action. Staff also negotiated 12 settlements that were approved by FERC for a total of $33.4 million: $11.7 million in civil penalties and $21.7 million in disgorgement.

Three other settlements resolved litigation in federal District Court for $4 million in disgorgement, one order to show cause for $4.4 million in civil penalties, and one U.S. Court of Appeals matter for a $10.75 million civil penalty.

Enforcement staff also completed nine audits of public utility, natural gas and oil companies that resulted in 68 findings of noncompliance and 332 recommendations for corrective action. They directed $33 million in refunds and other recoveries.

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Washington’s 2nd Cap-and-trade Reserve Auction Raises $259.5M

The state of Washington’s second cap-and-trade Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) auction raised almost $259.5 million, the state’s Ecology Department said Nov. 15. 

The auction held on Nov. 8 cleared all 5 million carbon emissions allowances put up for bid at a Tier 1 price of $51.90, which represents the soft cap price that triggers the need for the secondary APCR auction. August’s quarterly auction blew through the cap when it cleared at $63.03. (See Wash. Allowance Prices Surge Again in 3rd Cap-and-trade Auction.) 

The APCR auction is a mechanism intended to keep carbon prices in check by releasing a reserve of allowances only to “compliance” entities — those organizations that need to cover direct emissions. The APCR is not available to financial traders of allowances.  

Thirty entities participated in the second APCR auction, including oil refiners, natural gas companies, electric utilities and the state’s two largest public universities. 

The state’s first APCR auction took place in August, raising $62.5 million. (See Wash. Raises $62.5M from Cap-and-trade Reserve Auction.) 

That take from the latest auction translates into more than $1.72 billion collected so far in 2023, the first year of Washington’s cap-and-invest program. Most of the money will go to climate change-related projects. 

The state legislature last spring appropriated roughly $300 million from the state’s first auction in February. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) next month likely will unveil his proposals for the funds in preparation for the 2024 legislative session scheduled to begin in January.  

Washington has one auction left to conduct for 2023, which will occur in December.  

Conservative critics of Washington’s cap-and-trade program have blamed it for the state’s high gasoline prices. When the program was approved in 2021, Inslee’s administration contended it would add only a few pennies per gallon to prices at the pump. This has prompted intense criticism from Republicans. 

Washington this month said it tentatively will seek to link its cap-and-trade system with the California-Quebec market in an effort to reduce the impact on gas prices. (See Wash. Looks to Join California-Quebec Cap-and-Trade Market.) In its last auction, the California-Quebec program cleared allowances at roughly $36.  

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NYISO Braces for the Coming Winter

Winter Operating Study Report

NYISO’s Operating Committee on Nov. 16 approved the winter 2023/24 operating study report, which found New York’s bulk power system can operate reliably this winter based on calculated transfer capabilities.

The report by the ISO’s Operating Studies Task Force estimates internal and external thermal transfer capabilities for the upcoming winter season based on forecast load and dispatch assumptions, as well as any generation or transmission changes since last year. The external analysis covers NYISO’s adjacent balance areas of ISO-NE, PJM and Ontario’s IESO.

The task force reported an increase in internal thermal transfer limits for the Total East (1,525 MW) and Central East (1,825 MW) interfaces due to Segments A and B of the Alternating Current transmission project, which was designed  to increase the deliveries of renewable power to downstate New York.

Changes in cross-state and inter-state winter thermal transfer limits for 2022/23 | NYISO

Changes to external transfer limits also were seen. The ISO-NE-to-NYISO interface saw a decrease of 225 MW due to the reactivation of the Sprainbrook-East Garden City (Y49) 345-kV line. Meanwhile, the NYISO-to-PJM interface increased by 250 MW due to changes in PJM’s dispatch assumptions and the PJM-to-NYISO interface increased by 75 MW due to the redistribution of flows from the Segment A and B project.

NYISO reported that 639 MW of fossil-fuel based generating capacity was deactivated and that 336 MW of renewable generation was added since last year’s study. The appendices are posted online.

Winter Capacity Assessment

Aaron Markham, NYISO vice president of operations, informed the OC that while NYISO expects sufficient capacity for 50/50 peak forecast winter conditions, there is a risk of shortfalls during extreme weather events if non-firm fuel resources become unavailable.

The assessment projects winter generation capacity of 39,668 MW, approximately 750 MW lower than last year’s assessment, due primarily to the retirement of peaker units.

“Over the last approximately five years, we’ve seen about a 2,400-MW reduction in the margin as a result of retirements,” Markham said. “Continued reductions in winter capacity, disruptions in fuel supply or other concerns might result in operational challenges, especially during extreme cold weather events.”

2022 and 2023 winter capacity assessment and comparison | NYISO

Projected winter capacity margins for normal and extreme weather conditions with only firm fuel resources available:

    • 2,641-MW surplus capacity margin for 50-50 peak forecast conditions
    • -161-MW deficit capacity margin for 99-1 peak forecast conditions

Projected winter capacity margins for normal and extreme weather conditions with non-firm fuel available:

    • 9,135-MW capacity margin for 50-50 peak forecast conditions
    • 6,333-MW capacity margin for 99-1 peak forecast conditions

Projected firm fuel generation potentially unavailable at high load or temperature conditions (NYISO 2023 Gold Book, Table I-20):

    • 114 MW lost for 90-10 daily average temperature (5 F)
    • 707 MW lost for 99-1 daily average temperature (-2 F)
    • 707 MW lost for 90-10 daily minimum temperature (0 F)
    • 3,441 MW Lost for 99-1 daily minimum temperature (-8 F)

Markham said NYISO will continue monitoring winter conditions and communicate any emergencies to stakeholders. The ISO is continuing to review the 11 recommendations from the FERC and NERC joint inquiry into the electric outages caused by Winter Storm Elliott. (See Déjà Vu as FERC, NERC Issue Recommendations over Holiday Outages.)

Matt Cinadr, a power systems operations specialist with The E Cubed Co., revisited a stakeholder concern regarding the treatment of special case resources by NYISO, saying the assessment’s findings highlight that these resources should not be overlooked. (See Providers See ‘Mixed Signals’ on Demand Response in NYISO.) “I don’t think anything should be done to push SCRs further out of the market,” he said, “there is value in the [802 MW of SCRs] being shown in your assessment.”

OC Election

The OC elected James Kane, senior energy market adviser with the New York Power Authority, as the committee’s new vice chair. Kane co-chaired the Electric System Planning Working Group in 2021.

October Operations

Markham also told the OC that October’s load peaked at 21,735 MW on Oct. 4, recorded its minimum load of 11,890 MW on Oct. 8, and added 73 MW of behind-the-meter solar since the previous month.

He added that the Oct. 14 annual solar eclipse had a minor impact on BTM production, affecting only 100 MW, significantly less than the anticipated 700 MW. (See “Eclipse Preparation,” NYISO Business Issues Committee Briefs: Sept. 14, 2023.)

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DOE Offers $3.5B for Domestic Battery Manufacturing, $444M for Carbon Storage

The U.S. Department of Energy this week announced it will funnel up to $3.5 billion to strengthen domestic production of batteries and more than $444 million to help fund 16 carbon storage projects in the works. 

Both initiatives are funded through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. 

The battery funding opportunity is the second stage of the total $6 billion set aside for the advancement of battery manufacturing and materials processing. In the first phase last year, DOE selected 15 companies to receive awards. 

Concept papers for projects seeking grants are due Jan. 9, 2024; full applications are due March 19 for a shot at receiving a minimum federal award of $50 million and a maximum of $300 million. Projects should focus on battery-grade processed critical minerals, battery precursor materials, battery components, and cell and pack manufacturing, DOE said. The process is being administered by the department’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. 

The department said advanced batteries are “critical to national competitiveness” and will spur grid storage, increasingly resilient homes, and business and transportation electrification. The U.S. is aiming for electric vehicles to make up half of all new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030. 

Meanwhile the 16 CO2 storage project recipients across 12 states will “significantly and responsibly” reduce emissions, DOE said. Carbon management technologies are key to meeting the Biden administration’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions across all industries by 2050, it said. 

The carbon storage projects received funding under the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative, managed by DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Since the beginning of 2021, the office has released more than $816 million to advance carbon transport and storage. 

The U.S. needs a “concerted effort to build out the infrastructure” to store hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 each year in geologic storage facilities, DOE said. 

According to DOE, nine of the 16 carbon storage projects were selected for CarbonSAFE Phase II: Storage Complex Feasibility and will enter a feasibility study process. Those include potential CO2 storage reservoirs in regions that lack facilities in the Southeastern Illinois Basin, Virginia, California, Texas, South Florida, Mississippi, Alaska and Wyoming. Most projects in the feasibility study stage were awarded about $9 million apiece from the department. 

The other seven projects are in the planning and permitting stages and were recipients of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and Permitting. They received substantially more from the department. 

BP Carbon Solutions’ planned Project Crossroads, meant to decarbonize Northwestern Indiana through a storage hub at Whiting Refinery and wells in Indiana, Illinois and Michigan, received the most at $98 million. Tampa Electric received $88 million to perform a site characterization study for the proposed Polk Carbon Storage Complex located near an existing natural gas power station in Polk County, Fla. And the Southern States Energy Board of Georgia now has $55 million to work with to conduct a site characterization study of four geologic carbon storage systems for the Tri-State Carbon Capture and Storage Hub serving Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. 

Other projects intended for New Mexico, the Permian Basin and Louisiana received between $21 million and $41 million. 

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the battery investments will give a “boost needed to build a robust domestic battery supply chain that is Made-in-America,” and the carbon storage projects will “help slow the harmful effects of climate change all while revitalizing local economies and delivering cleaner air to the American people.” 

US, China Vow More Climate Action

The pair of funding announcements coincided with the U.S. and China refreshing a pledge to build up renewable energy and oust planet-warming fossil fuel resources. 

The two countries agreed to redouble climate mitigation efforts and resume a working group on climate cooperation ahead of a Nov. 15 meeting of U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders’ first face-to-face meeting in a year occurred at an estate near San Francisco and corresponded with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. 

In a joint statement released Nov. 14 by the U.S. State Department, the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to meet the Paris Agreement’s target of holding global average temperature increase to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to “keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach.” 

The two largest carbon-emitting countries promised to ramp up renewable energy deployment through 2030, develop at least five large-scale carbon capture and storage projects apiece by 2030, and pursue reforestation. They expressed support for G20 leaders’ pact in September to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 

They also promised to restart the U.S.-China Energy Efficiency Forum “to deepen policy exchanges on energy-saving and carbon-reducing solutions in key areas including industry, buildings, transportation and equipment.” The U.S. and China vowed to “rise up to one of the greatest challenges of our time for present and future generations of humankind.” 

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MISO’s More Stringent Interconnection Queue Rules Go Before FERC

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO this month put its package of changes meant to downsize its crammed interconnection queue before FERC and plans to conduct a survey of its interconnection customers to gauge how many projects it should expect.

MISO split its package of stiffer interconnection rules into two filings at FERC. One tackles the increases to milestone payments and tighter land requirements, while the other proposes an annual megawatt cap on project submissions according to a feasibility formula (ER24-340 and ER24-341). MISO has determined there’s only so many potential generation projects it can simultaneously consider and still achieve accurate interconnection studies. (See MISO Relaxes Proposal on Stricter Queue Ruleset.)

To estimate how many submissions it might be facing when it finally opens its project application window in early 2024, MISO will conduct a survey of its interconnection customers on the number, size and type of projects they plan to submit.

During a Nov. 15 Planning Advisory Committee meeting, Director of Resource Utilization Andy Witmeier said MISO won’t publicly share the volume of projects it expects based off survey results. He said the idea is for MISO to have an idea internally of how many projects to prepare for.

Witmeier said MISO will publish a megawatt cap before it opens the 2023 cycle. He said even though applications have been pushed into the first quarter of 2024, MISO still will administer a 2024 queue cycle later in the year.

MISO delayed opening a queue application window this year because it wants the new queue rules in place first to deter another unmanageably large number of gigawatts from joining the queue.

Witmeier said the exact launch of the 2023 application window is contingent on FERC’s decisions on MISO’s pair of filings. MISO asked for a Jan. 22 FERC effective date. Stakeholders can comment on the filings at FERC through Dec. 4.

MISO has proposed that its megawatt cap be based on its ability to develop a reasonable dispatch based on the existing system with existing interconnection requests and the regional and subregional peak load in the study model.

A few weeks before it put its filings to FERC, MISO said a yearly megawatt cap on interconnection requests would be beneficial, incentivizing interconnection customers to submit their project request as soon as possible, instead of at deadline when the application window closes. MISO said that in turn would produce an earlier evaluation of the application, better coordination with transmission owners on selected points of interconnection and a public posting of accepted applications, allowing other developers to make more informed decisions regarding their own projects.

Witmeier said the package of stepped-up requirements would yield higher-quality projects, while the cap would allow a more viable study process for MISO.

“We do believe we need a backstop to limit the size of the queue study,” Witmeier said at an Oct. 11 Planning Advisory Committee meeting. He said scaled-back study cycles would result in more realistic modeling of potential system overloads and voltage support assumptions.

“I realize the package is not what everyone wants,” Witmeier said. But he said he views the more strict rules as becoming a “permanent fixture” of MISO’s interconnection queue.

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New England Transmission Owners Issue Draft Asset Condition Forecast Database

The New England Transmission Owners (NETOs) released a draft asset condition forecast database for the ISO-NE Planning Advisory Committee Nov. 15 and outlined updates to the asset condition project stakeholder review process.  

As the New England grid ages, the region has faced rising costs associated with asset condition upgrades needed to replace old, degraded or defunct transmission infrastructure. On multiple occasions earlier this year, the New England States Committee on Electricity pressed the NETOs for reforms and greater transparency to the asset condition planning process. (See States Press New England TOs on Asset Condition Projects.) 

The NETOs’ draft database includes information on the issue targeted by the project and the proposed solution, along with the estimated project cost, in-service date, location and primary equipment owner. It includes projects that are under construction, proposed and in the planning stages. The total combined cost estimate for all projects in the draft database is about $4.5 billion.  

Dave Burnham, representing the NETOs (Avangrid, Eversource, National Grid, Rhode Island Energy, Vermont Electric Power and Versant Power), said that the transmission owners plan to provide the forecast annually.  

Burnham also outlined a series of updates to how asset condition projects are presented to the PAC, following feedback from stakeholders responding to the NETOs’ proposed changes.   

While the current standard requires that a project is presented to the PAC before construction begins, it has no defined stakeholder comment period.  

Under the new proposal, for projects with an anticipated cost greater than $50 million, transmission owners would present potential solutions to the PAC at least six months prior to the start of major construction. Stakeholders would have a chance to give feedback, and three months later the transmission owner would present to the PAC responding to any stakeholder feedback and detailing the preferred solution.  

For projects expected to cost less than $50 million, a presentation would be required three months prior to the start of construction detailing the preferred solution and soliciting stakeholder feedback.  

Proposed changes to the PAC asset condition stakeholder review process. | ISO-NE

Burnham said the proposal is aiming to “balance the need for increased notice and increased transparency but is also … something that we could commit to, given our own internal priorities and internal project development lifecycles.” 

If presentations to the PAC are required too far ahead of the beginning of construction, “sometimes we just don’t have the detailed information that’s necessary to really give stakeholders the full picture of a project,” Burnham added.  

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NECA Conference Focuses on Changes to ISO-NE Capacity Market

WALTHAM, Mass. — Representatives from ISO-NE, Massachusetts and industry groups met on Nov. 13 to discuss major changes to the RTO’s capacity market and the effects they could have on the region’s clean energy transition at the Northeast Energy and Commerce Association’s 2023 Power Markets Conference. 

The potential changes include significant updates to ISO-NE’s resource capacity accreditation (RCA) methodology, along with prompt and seasonal capacity market formats. A prompt auction format would reduce the time between the Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) and the capacity commitment period (CCP) from more than three years to just a few months, while a seasonal market would break the yearlong CCP into distinct seasons with separate auctions. 

ISO-NE recently filed for a one-year delay of FCA 19, which applies to the 2028/29 CCP. The RTO is planning to use the delay to finalize its RCA updates and consider the different formats. (See NEPOOL Votes to Delay FCA 19.) 

Chris Geissler of ISO-NE said the RCA updates are a key component of preparing for increasing amounts of variable resources and higher winter peak loads. 

“The concerns are no longer really about just the summer peak, but about a much broader set of cases,” Geissler said. “Because of that, we think it’s important to try to align how we credit resources for their contributions with what we actually expect them to deliver when we need it.” 

Bruce Anderson of the New England Power Generators Association said the RCA changes are “an effort to create a capacity product that is substitutable across all resource types,” and that updating the accreditation methodology “makes a lot of sense” at a broad level. Anderson added that the current methodology may improperly value certain resource types. 

The specific effects of the RCA changes on different resource types are not yet clear. Preliminary results released in April indicated that the updates would increase accreditation values for wind and passive demand response (such as energy efficiency), while significantly reducing the values for energy storage, solar and active DR. However, ISO-NE has stressed that the RCA project is ongoing, and the results are subject to change. 

Anderson noted that peaking resources like many oil generators have a greater reliance on the capacity revenues than resources with a greater reliance on energy markets. 

“For different resource types, these changes are more critical for their viability,” Anderson said. “Overall, the design creates a set of revenue opportunities where those resources can be viable.” 

Jeff Bentz of the New England States Committee on Electricity said ISO-NE and its stakeholders need to strike a difficult balance between states’ requirements for renewable resources and the need to preserve reliability. 

“I’m sure we’re going to find out with the new modeling that some of this may not be as favorable to the type of resources that the states want to see grow,” Bentz told the conference. He said that while the RCA changes might hurt the accreditation values of short-duration batteries, it could provide an incentive for longer-duration batteries with greater reliability benefits.  

“If that incentive is out there, innovation grows and we get to longer-duration batteries for example, and they’re rated highly in the new program, that will be good,” Bentz said, noting there is a lot of work left to understand all the tradeoffs of the changes. 

Prompt and Seasonal Implications

A seasonal market could be a way to differentiate between distinct reliability risks in the winter and summer periods, especially with the anticipated increase in winter risks, Geissler said, noting that ISO-NE has yet to make a recommendation on the potential move to prompt and seasonal formats. 

Geissler added that a seasonal approach is a way to “be more granular in the capacity that we procure, so we’re making sure we’re meeting both the summer peak as well as extended winter cold spells.” 

Regarding a prompt market, Bentz said the current Forward Capacity Market has faced issues stemming from new resources that clear the market but do not reach operations on time or at all. 

“Moving to a prompt market — from a consumer standpoint — you’re going to get what you pay for on the day you pay for it,” Bentz said. 

Anderson said these “ghost projects” bring down the market price in subsequent auctions. He added that delayed projects force ISO-NE to decide to either grant the resource an extension or file with FERC to terminate the contract. 

“Any resource coming into the market on a prompt basis, assuming it’s going to be something in the order of say three, or even six months ahead of its delivery period, that’s a resource that’s built and ready to go,” Anderson said. 

In contrast, Anderson said moving to a prompt market could hurt price formation by failing to give enough advance notice that a resource is retiring compared to the current three-year forward market. This dynamic would limit the time available to address any reliability or resource adequacy issues created by the retirement and could lead to an increase in reliability-must-run agreements to keep resources online. 

“You see the same issue of price formation in the market, it’s dragging the price down for a resource that’s being retained outside of the market, not pricing itself in the market,” Anderson said. 

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MISO to Focus on LRTP, Congestion for MTEP 24

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO this week said the bulk of its 2024 Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP 24) will look much the same as last year’s, with an emphasis on long-range transmission planning and near-term congestion studies in addition to its usual round of annual studies.

MISO took stakeholder suggestions in early fall on what additional planning studies it may undertake as part of MTEP 24. However, planning staff warned that MISO is limited next year in what it can accomplish because it’s performing extensive analysis under its ongoing long-range transmission plan.

The Municipals, Co-ops and Transmission-Dependent Utilities Sector requested MISO perform a study centered around the potential effects of widespread energy storage additions and analyze grid-enhancing technologies’ ability to provide flow control.

MISO said it will consider energy storage and grid-enhancing technologies over the course of its regular MTEP studies, but not under a dedicated analysis. The RTO said it’s always open to considering non-transmission alternatives to projects.

“We don’t see the need for a standalone study. We see where the annual MTEP process can address that,” MISO’s Jeremiah Doner said at a Nov. 15 Planning Advisory Committee meeting.

However, MISO said a continuation of this year’s near-term congestion study is on the table as part of MTEP 24. (See MISO May Use Inaugural Near-term Congestion Study to Plan Smaller Tx Upgrades.)

Doner said MISO hasn’t settled on a scope for the near-term congestion study.

“It’s too early to say what that study is going to produce,” he said.

MISO previously said the study again will be exploratory and likely won’t result in project recommendations.

Some members of MISO’s Environmental Sector have expressed disappointment that MISO will take another year of hypothetical testing before it recommends small projects that alleviate congestion.

MISO said it needs more time to refine its transmission planning model to solve congestion on a five-year horizon instead of in the long run. Planners said they are open to tweaking the scope and study assumptions based on stakeholder requests.

Some stakeholders have said MISO already has a template for studying regional congestion and cost allocation with its Targeted Market Efficiency Projects with PJM. But MISO said the MTEP interregional process is materially different.

MISO planners have said that if any market participant is concerned about congestion in the near term, they can pursue a market participant-funded transmission project.

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Winter is Coming; SPP Says It Has No Concerns

SPP says it has not identified any concerns within its 14-state footprint this winter that it is not capable of resolving. 

Bruce Rew, senior vice president of operations, told stakeholders Nov. 13 the RTO also does not expect any fuel-supply or resource issues across its fleet. 

“We are, however, continually performing studies to assess system changes and to develop ways to mitigate problems should any study indicate the potential for those to occur,” Rew said during SPP’s annual winter preparedness workshop. “Extreme weather can and has stressed our system from a capacity perspective, but we have procedures in place to ensure the grid remains stable.” 

He said SPP will take preemptive actions to prepare for worst-case scenarios should extreme weather occur, as has happened in each of the two previous winters. In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri forced the grid operator to shed load for the first time in its 80-year history. (See ERCOT, MISO, SPP Slough Load in Wintry Blast.) 

Rew said this year’s winter assessment forecasts a peak load of 46 GW, just below last December’s record peak of just over 47 GW. The assessment looked at typical load levels with normal expected outages. 

SPP staff are forecasting near-normal temperatures in the central and southern portions of its region and above-normal temperatures in the North. They say a strong Arctic outbreak is less likely but that there is an increased chance of winter precipitation in the South, thanks to the El Niño weather pattern’s strong subtropical jet stream. 

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MISO Says Overloads and Congestion Loom Without 2nd Long-range Tx Portfolio

CARMEL, Ind. — After completing its initial economic and reliability analysis, MISO has found that numerous overloads and congestion await its system if it doesn’t recommend a second long-range transmission plan (LRTP) portfolio.

“Keep in mind this is the start of the analysis. There’s much more work to do to translate these studies into transmission lines. So, expect to hear overloads today, not transmission projects,” Executive Director of Transmission Planning Laura Rauch told a Nov. 15 Planning Advisory Committee meeting.

That said, MISO found “significant” overloads and congestion on the system when it applies its envisioned 2042 resource mix in studies. Rauch said she expected the study results to show problems in the system.

Rauch said the second LRTP portfolio likely will shape up to be a “more complex solution” than the first, $10 billion LRTP portfolio. She said MISO’s analysis by 2042 found lines reach stability limits instead of just thermal limits and foresees a greater need for reactive power.

Rauch said MISO may have an idea of some projects by early spring.

“I would say at this point, all solutions are still on the table,” Rauch said of project sizes and voltages.

Rauch said MISO’s West Region — Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, North Dakota and portions of South Dakota, Montana and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula — showed a need for higher-voltage transmission facilities to “support large power transfers and enable generation resources from remote areas to be delivered to load centers.”

By 2042, MISO found 20% of the facilities in the West Region will be overloaded, with annual generation curtailments exceeding 15%.

On the other hand, MISO said its Central Region — most of Illinois and Indiana and portions of Kentucky and Missouri — will be instrumental to supporting system transfers. It said about 10% of the Central Region’s facilities will be overloaded by 2042 without significant transmission expansion.

Rauch also said she expects MISO will have “additional challenges to solve” in the Central Region based on anticipated weather patterns and expanded transfer needs.

Finally, MISO’s East Region —most of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula — will need increased import and export capabilities by 2042. By then, MISO said about 10% of the East Region’s facilities will be overloaded, with annual curtailments surpassing 15%.

Rauch said the overloads and binding constraint hours uncovered in MISO’s initial studies will form the foundation of its list of transmission needs for the second LRTP portfolio.

“We may not solve all of them, but all of them will be considered,” Rauch said.

Rauch also said MISO has been sharing the results of its LRTP analyses with the Independent Market Monitor, who has voiced concerns with the future energy mix MISO predicts by 2042. (See MISO Promises Analyses on Long-range Tx; Stakeholders Divided on IMM Involvement.)

The second LRTP cycle again zeroes in on MISO Midwest; the third portfolio will pay attention to MISO South needs, and the fourth will address power exchange limits between the Midwest and South regions. MISO has said while the first, $10 billion portfolio is an “important start, further work is needed to ensure reliability.”

Meanwhile, the Organization of MISO States again has hired RLC Engineering to independently assess future projects in the second LRTP portfolio. For the first portfolio, RLC arrived at a 1.4:1 benefit-to-cost ratio for projects, smaller than MISO’s overall projection of 2.6:1.

MISO will hold an LRTP workshop Dec. 1 to dedicate more discussion to its initial findings.

“We’re just getting started and looking forward to the journey,” Rauch said.