Page 1460 – RTO Insider

April 4, 2016

NYISO Management Committee Briefs

New York’s natural gas demand set a single-day record in February, although the winter was much milder than the average over the past 30 years.

The winter operations review presented at the NYISO Management Committee meeting on Wednesday showed that only three relatively brief cold snaps occurred over the winter, with the worst one in mid-February. Cold snaps in December and January, when daylight hours are shorter, have greater potential to stress the electric system, said Wes Yeomans, NYISO’s vice president of operations.

On Feb. 13, during the coldest three-day period of the winter, the ISO set a 6.6 Bcf single-day record for natural gas demand, exceeding the previous mark of 6.4 Bcf set in February 2015. Yeomans said 100% of the natural gas system’s capacity was reached that day, for both heating and electricity generation.

The record was as much a function of the low cost of natural gas as power demand, Yeomans said. “Gas prices remained below oil prices for the day,” he said.

NYISO relies heavily on dual-fuel capable generation, so when natural gas supply becomes constrained — or when it becomes uneconomic relative to the cost of oil-fired generation — fuel-switching becomes more widespread. That did not occur during this stretch.

The peak load in mid-February was 22,951 MW. No demand response resources were called upon this winter.

“Our winter peak was below the 50/50 forecast by quite a bit,” Yeomans said. The peak of 23,317 MW on Jan. 19 was the lowest winter peak since at least 2004. The forecasted peak was 24,515 MW.

Yeomans said the fuel-monitoring platform the ISO created to improve reliability also appeared to be “working well.”

ICAP Demand Curve Reset

The committee voted to set the capacity market demand curve every four years with an annual reset, an increase from the current three-year cycle. The demand curve was introduced more than a decade ago.

“The change is recognizing calls from stakeholders,” said Paul Hibbard, vice president of the Analysis Group, the consultant hired by NYISO.

The changes more accurately reflect the New York wholesale market as generation assets enter and leave, Hibbbard said. The annual reset would consider the gross cost of new entry and forecast energy and ancillary services revenues, as well as adjusting historical revenues to reflect market conditions.

Another factor in extending the cycle is the 18 to 20 months needed for setting the demand curve.

The change needs to be ratified by the NYISO Board of Directors. Further refinements would be performed over the next several months, in advance of a filing with FERC by Nov. 30. NYISO anticipates an operational date of May 1, 2017.

— William Opalka

April 4, 2016

Grid 2.0 Asks DC PSC to Reconsider Merger Approval

By Suzanne Herel

One party to the Exelon-Pepco Holdings Inc. merger case has asked the D.C. Public Service Commission to reconsider its approval, and the People’s Counsel said she’s considering doing the same.

Sandra Mattavous Fry (Twitter) - Exelon-Pepco Merger — Mattavous-Fry *Source: Twitter*

Grid 2.0, which advocates for distributed generation, and did not sign on to any proposed settlement in the case, said in a March 25 filing that the commission failed to give adequate notice of public hearings and did not provide support for its finding that the settlement it crafted itself was in the public interest.

“The commission … failed to make any independent finding that the revised settlement agreement is in the public interest,” it said, calling the PSC’s conclusion “arbitrary and capricious.”

The nine settling parties, who approved an initial agreement that was later amended by the commission, have until April 22 to file an application for reconsideration with the PSC. Four other groups that intervened but did not sign on to the settlement also have the opportunity to appeal the decision.

The joint applicants responded to the filing, saying “every part of Grid 2.0’s argument is wrong.”

“The commission approved the merger after two years of the most exhaustive consideration that the commission has ever given to any issue, and it did so based on one of the most extensive records the commission has ever compiled,” they said.

D.C. People’s Counsel Sandra Mattavous-Frye said last week on the Kojo Nnamdi radio show that she is reviewing the ruling with an eye toward issues that might warrant her office taking action.

“I do have some major concerns about the process throughout the case. You didn’t really know what to expect or how the commission came to its determination,” she said. “It’s not over until it’s over. But I do admit that the lift is going to be heavier at this junction.”

Exelon and Pepco closed the $6.8 billion transaction just hours after the PSC approved the deal on March 23. (See Exelon Closes Pepco Merger Following OK from PSC.)

Mattavous-Frye cited “uncertainty created by the commission’s plan,” specifically how it plans to use $32.8 million of the $72.8 million customer investment fund that commissioners “redirected … for themselves without any clear explanation of how those funds will be used.”

If the commission stands by its decision, parties may turn to the D.C. Court of Appeals.

The acquisition, approved on a 2-1 vote with Chairwoman Betty Ann Kane in opposition, creates the country’s largest utility by customer count.

In an interview last week with the Washington Business Journal, Exelon CEO Chris Crane and new Pepco head David Velazquez said they would work to prove themselves to merger opponents and will be active in district affairs.

April 4, 2016

GridEx III Shows Vulnerability of Power Grid to Cyberattack

By Ted Caddell

GridEx III, a drill to test the emergency response capabilities of the North American high-voltage power grid, highlighted several vulnerabilities in the face of a simulated cyberattack. The lesson: Responding to a wide-scale computer malware attack is completely different from overcoming a monster storm.

“Electricity system recovery and restoration would be delayed or may not begin until the nature of the cyber risks are understood and mitigation strategies are available,” said NERC’s final report on the November drill.

GridEx III drew 4,400 participants from grid operators, federal agencies and local, state and federal law enforcement. The two-day scenario hit the grid with cyber and physical attacks resulting in blackouts in several cities. Organizers sent waves of simulated malware to grid operators by email. Throughout the beginning stages of the drill, operators were also notified about simulated attacks on physical plants such as transmission lines and substations.

“We wanted to challenge the coordinators to be on that ragged edge … [to see what they need to do to] protect the reliability of the system,” Bill Lawrence, NERC associate director of stakeholder engagement, said during a press conference Thursday.

The scenario employed email delivery of simulated malware — a tactic used by hackers who attacked three utilities in Ukraine in December. (See How a ‘Phantom Mouse’ and Weaponized Excel Files Brought Down Ukraine’s Grid.)

The after-action reports showed that secure sharing of communication between parties and reporting methods remains a problem.

“Industry needs to coordinate with local law enforcement to identify and assess the physical risks to electricity facilities and workers,” the report said. “Unlike how industry responds to major storms through mutual assistance, industry’s capability to analyze malware is limited and would require expertise likely available from software suppliers, control system vendors or government resources.”

Another observation was that the information-gathering tools may be capturing too much. The NERC-run information portal captured reports in real time, but participants said they and the system quickly became overwhelmed.

NERC, the report said, “should continue to enhance the [information] portal to support real-time, searchable, urgent communication and collaboration.”

Another major observation gleaned from the simulated cyber and physical attack was that recovery would be prolonged and expensive. “Utilities will need unprecedented levels of financial resources in order to restore their facilities and eventually resume normal operations,” the report said.

The massive expense of a widespread restoration effort raised a question: Where is that money going to come from?

“There are certain regulations and laws out there that could be useful for grid restoration,” Lawrence said. “For example, the Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act is designed to deliver relief and funding to individuals that are impacted by a disaster.”

But the law doesn’t provide relief for private corporations, such as investor-owned utilities. “Obviously if the utility isn’t generating power, they can’t pay their employees, and that would be a severe impact,” Lawrence said.

GridEx III featured the first use of social media for communications purposes. The report also recommended lengthening the planning time for the next exercise.

April 4, 2016

ISO-NE Again Defends Capacity Auctions

By William Opalka

ISO-NE CEO Gordon van Welie last week again defended the RTO’s capacity auction to congressmen who say market practices have led to inflated electricity rates for New England ratepayers.

In an eight-page, single-spaced letter sent Monday, van Welie reminded the New England congressional delegation of his testimony three years ago that highlighted the dramatic shift in the region’s market.

“Since then, 4,200 MW of resources have either announced plans to retire or have actually retired. Importantly, since 2013, the region’s Forward Capacity Market (FCM) has procured over 4,700 MW of new capacity resources — demonstrating that the FCM is procuring new, economically competitive resources to meet the region’s energy needs,” he wrote. (See Prices Down 26% in ISO-NE Capacity Auction.)

Van Welie’s letter was a response to a March 14 letter sent to FERC and the RTO by the delegation members after results of the 10th Forward Capacity Auction were filed.

“While these clearing prices were the result of a ‘competitive auction’ according to ISO-NE, the results are roughly equal to FCA 8, an auction that triggered administrative pricing rules due to lack of competition. They are also triple the capacity payments derived from the auctions prior to FCA 8,” the delegation wrote.

The congressmen acknowledged that prices declined more than 25% from FCA 9, but they noted that the previous year was a record $4 billion.

Ten senators and representatives joined in the letter, which was written by Massachusetts Democrats Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III and Sen. Edward Markey. The members have repeatedly complained to FERC, without success, about alleged market manipulation. (See Congressional Meeting Fails to Sway LaFleur on Capacity Results.)

Van Welie said that market participants respond to price signals.

“We share your goal of ensuring that prices in the capacity market are just and reasonable. The FCM must and does signal the true value of capacity in New England. Artificial prices (whether too high or too low) do not benefit regional electric reliability or New England residents,” he wrote.

April 4, 2016

ERCOT Stakeholders Agree on Lost Opportunity Costs Rule

By Tom Kleckner

AUSTIN, Texas — ERCOT’s Technical Advisory Committee last week agreed on a method for paying lost opportunity costs to generators ordered to ramp down for grid reliability, a solution that will now go to the ISO’s Board of Directors.

Stakeholders discussed three options brought forth by ERCOT staff to address Nodal Protocol Revision Request 649 (Addressing Issues Surrounding High Dispatch Limit (HDL) Overrides), which was remanded back to TAC during the board’s February meeting. (See LOC Rule Sent Back to ERCOT’s Stakeholder Process.)

Staff’s preferred option was the first of three it presented: rewriting the NPRR’s language to replace compensation for opportunity costs with “justified” losses suffered by qualified scheduling entities (QSEs) holding existing contracts. The QSEs would have to provide an attestation of loss, calculations and supporting documentation to recover a claim.

A second option proposed software changes to override the resource node’s LMP, which would have created difficulties at the 98 nodes with at least two generator connections. The third, and priciest option, at $200,000 to $300,000 plus ongoing support, would pre-position manual constraints associated with each resource node in the system model.

As the discussion wore on, it became apparent stakeholders were coalescing on the first of ERCOT’s options.

“This seems to be a quickly diminishing issue,” said Shell Energy’s Greg Thurnher, representing independent power marketers. “It looks like Option 1 is the remedy.”

Brandon-Whittle,-Megawatt-Analytics-web — Whittle

“We think Option 1 is the way to go for now,” said Megawatt Analytics’ Brandon Whittle, speaking for Odessa-Ector Power Partners and Koch Services. “It puts the onus on the people who might get hurt. No generator wants to be paid back for their losses because of HDL overrides. We’d rather adjust the LMPs.”

The proposal passed by a 23-5 vote, with two abstentions. The NPRR will go before ERCOT’s board April 19. Staff will revise the revision request’s impact analysis and better define energy bilateral contracts.

Odessa-Ector, a subsidiary of Koch Ag & Energy Solutions, initiated discussion of the issue when it claimed its combined cycle plant had lost $300,000 because of three days of dispatch overrides in November 2012. ERCOT submitted the NPRR to satisfy a settlement agreement with Odessa-Ector after the company filed a complaint with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (docket #41790).

Luminant’s Amanda Frazier expressed a preference for an earlier version of the NPRR, which failed to secure sufficient votes. But she said that in subsequent discussions, “ERCOT has eliminated a number of concerns we originally had.

“The damages are limited to those attested to by the resources, and compensating the actual damages rather than the opportunity costs is a good compromise,” she said.

Resmi Surendran, ERCOT senior manager of market analytics and design, highlighted staff’s efforts to reduce HDL overrides, which peaked at more than 348,000 minutes in 2011. The numbers have steadily dropped since then, with only 57 minutes of overrides recorded last year.

Surendran attributed the improved results to increased operator training, their ability to enter manual constraints, the availability of new generic transmission constraints and topology improvements.

Whittle sought reassurance from ERCOT that the NPRR’s cost can be reduced from its current staff estimate of $100,000 to $150,000.

“We try to implement [any changes] at the minimum cost we can,” said Kenan Ögelman, ERCOT’s vice president of commercial operations. “We’ll definitely go back and see if we can’t reduce the cost. I just can’t give you a number, right now.”

April 4, 2016

SPP Briefs: State of the Market, Study w/ AECI

The SPP Market Monitoring Unit’s State of the Market report for the winter months once again highlighted wind generation’s growing importance within the RTO’s footprint.

According to the report, which covered December 2015 through February 2016, wind generation accounted for 17.7% of SPP’s energy, a 43% increase from last winter. Wind generation accounted for 12.4% of energy production last winter and 10.2% during the winter of 2014.

As if to punctuate the point, SPP set a new wind peak during the evening hours of March 28, shortly after the market report was released. The RTO’s new wind peak of 10,809 MW at 9:22 p.m. CT broke the previous record of 10,783 MW, set March 21. Wind penetration reached 40.34% March 28, short of the 41.1% high set March 7.

Wind generation peaked in February, producing nearly 21% of SPP’s energy, according to the Monitor’s report. SPP has 12,397 MW of installed and available wind capacity in its footprint, with another 33,819 MW in various stages of development.

The increase in wind power came at the expense of coal generation, which saw the percentage of energy it produced fall to 46.3% for the month, down from 57% in February 2015.

The report said the increase in wind generation “comes [with] an increase in congestion.” Most congestion in the SPP footprint can be found in the “wind alley” of the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and western Kansas.

The Monitor measures congestion by a constraint’s shadow price, “which reflects the intensity of congestion on the path represented by the flowgate.” It said the shadow price “indicates the marginal value of an additional megawatt of relief on a constraint in reducing the total production costs.”

Shadow prices reached almost $60/MWh on one flowgate and topped $40/MWh on at least two other flowgates.

The Monitor report also said gas costs continued to drop during the winter, with an average Panhandle Hub cost of $1.98/MMBtu, more than 30% lower than 2015 ($2.90/MMBtu) and nearly two-thirds lower than 2014 ($5.68/MMBtu).

The average real-time balancing market’s winter 2016 LMP was $17.82/MWh, down from $25.20/MWh in 2015. The day-ahead market’s average LMP was $18.33/MWh, down from $25.73/MWh last winter.

SPP, AECI Begin Biennial Joint-Study Process

SPP and Associated Electric Cooperative Inc. (AECI) began their biennial joint-study process with a call for stakeholder feedback and input on a proposed scope last week.

The SPP-AECI Interregional Stakeholder Advisory Committee (IPSAC) has identified several voltage and congestion issues in Missouri and Oklahoma, but the committee said April 1 it is giving stakeholders two to three weeks to comment on the scope. A separate meeting will be scheduled for the study scope’s formal endorsement.

The IPSAC will evaluate the SPP and AECI transmission systems and determine whether “mutually beneficial” joint projects exist. A joint planning committee comprising a representative from each staff will determine cost allocations on a case-by-case basis, with responsibility “assigned equitably” based on the constraint being resolved — and subject to approval of each region.

The two entities have been performing joint studies every other year since 2010, as outlined in their joint operating agreement. The 2014 study identified 463 potential needs along the SPP-AECI seam but resulted in no joint solutions.

Stakeholders asked staff whether this study might solve long-standing constraints in the Lake of the Ozarks region in central Missouri.

“We studied some alternatives in the last joint-study process related to a 345[-kV line] across this lakes area, but we did not see a lot of economic value or immediate reliability concerns a line across that area would solve,” said David Kelley, SPP’s director of interregional relations. “But constraints obviously move around, so we’re always willing to look at an alternative.”

James Vermillion, a senior planning engineer for AECI, said the association’s latest 10-year Long Range Transmission Plan has identified almost $40 million in improvements to maintain grid reliability. Still, that is down from the 2009-19 plan, which identified more than $221 million in projects.

AECI, based in Springfield, Mo., is owned by and provides wholesale power to six regional generation and transmission cooperatives.

SPP.org Wins Best Energy Website Award

SPP’s recently redesigned website has been honored as the Best Energy Website in the 2016 Internet Advertising Competition (IAC) Awards.

SPP.org was redesigned by Little Rock interactive agency Aristotle, which called the new site “a case study in responsive web design that combines great aesthetics and interactive technical features without sacrificing speed.”

The IAC Awards highlight the “best online advertising” in 96 industries and nine online formats, including video, newsletters, email and social media.

– Tom Kleckner

April 4, 2016

Company Briefs

Central Hudson Gas & Electric appointed Michael L. Mosher as CEO, effective April 1. He succeeds James P. Laurito, CEO since 2009, and who has been promoted to executive vice president of parent company Fortis. Laurito will remain on the Central Hudson board.

Central Hudson board Chair Margarita K. Dilley said Mosher has the experience, knowledge and vision to propel the utility to new heights of accomplishment in a rapidly changing industry.

“Mike’s substantial and diverse background in operations and regulatory affairs has prepared him to assume the leadership of Central Hudson at a critical time in its evolution,” Dilley said. “We are confident that he will continue the momentum that our company has achieved during Jim’s outstanding tenure.”

More: Central Hudson Gas & Electric

Wind Farm Developer Facing Bankruptcy

SunEdison, saddled with nearly $10 billion in long-term debt, is at risk of filing for bankruptcy protection, one of its affiliates said.

In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing last Tuesday, TerraForm Global said “liquidity difficulties” mean that “there is a substantial risk that SunEdison will soon seek bankruptcy protection.” The company is also reportedly being investigated by SEC for possibly overstating to investors how much cash it had on hand in November.

More: Portland Press Herald

Peabody, Arch Announce 465 Layoffs at 2 Wyo. Coal Mines

The two largest coal mines in the U.S., both in Wyoming, announced massive layoffs last week. Peabody Energy cut 235 people, or 15% of the workforce, March 31 at North Antelope Rochelle. Arch Coal said the same day it was cutting 15%, or 230 people, at its Black Thunder Mine.

Until now, Wyoming’s coal industry has largely avoided the massive cutbacks seen in Appalachian coal operations. The two mines, which produce about 100 million tons of coal a year, are generally regarded as among the most cost-effective mines in the country.

More: Billings Gazette

PacifiCorp to Close Coal Unit At Wyoming’s Kemmerer Plant

PacifiCorp has abandoned plans to convert a coal unit at its Naughton Plant in southwestern Wyoming to natural gas, saying it will now retire the unit at the end of 2017. The company said the move is a result of declining electricity demand and reflects the costs of installing environmental upgrades to meet federal haze requirements.

PacifiCorp’s initial plan had been to shutter Unit 3 for five months, starting at the end of 2017, and convert it to natural gas. The estimated cost of the conversion was $160 million. Natural gas had been a cheaper option for complying with regional haze requirements than upgrading the unit’s coal burning equipment under the Oregon-based utility’s initial calculations.

More: Casper Star-Tribune

AECC, Ouachita Dedicate 100-Acre Ark. Solar Farm

Aerojet Rocketdyne, Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp. and Ouachita Electric Cooperative Corp. formally commissioned a 100-acre solar project in southern Arkansas last week. The 12-MW array located in an industrial park will supply power to Aerojet’s nearby facility.

The facility was completed in late 2015 and is capable of generating enough electricity to power the equivalent of 2,400 single-family homes. Excess solar energy will be sold in the wholesale power market.

More: Magnolia Reporter

DTE Proposes 10-Acre Solar Farm in Vacant Detroit Parcel

DTE Energy is proposing the development of a 10-acre solar array on a former playground in Detroit, which the utility said “could be one of the largest urban solar arrays in the U.S.”

The project, in Detroit’s Grandale neighborhood on the former O’Shea Park, would produce 2 MW, enough for 330 residential customers.

More: MLive

Consumers Energy: Cheapest Natural Gas in Almost 2 Decades

Consumers Energy has reported that its natural gas commodity price has fallen to its lowest level in 18 years.

Consumers’ natural gas commodity price for April is $2.54 per 1,000 cubic feet, which represents the most inexpensive rate since March 1998. Consumers estimates that the average residential customer paid $250 less this winter on natural gas bills.

“The price for natural gas that we’ll put into effect in April continues a decade of falling costs,” said Tim Sparks, the utility’s vice president of energy supply operations.

More: Consumers Energy

Solar Capacity Awarded to 4 Companies in Tenn. Project

The Tennessee Valley Authority, together with the Tennessee Valley Public Power Association, has awarded 16.7 MW of solar capacity to four local power companies for projects expected to generate enough electricity to supply more than 1,300 homes.

The projects were chosen from 11 proposals that are part of the Distributed Solar Solutions pilot project. TVA has more than 400 MW of solar power under contract.

More: Solar Industry Magazine

Duke Energy Asks to Upgrade Ohio River Hydro Station

Duke Energy is seeking permission to modernize its Markland Hydro Station on the Ohio River near Florence, Ind. The company wants to replace three hydroelectric turbines, generators and related equipment.

If the proposal is approved by the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, work on the hydro station could begin this summer and last until mid-2020.

“The generating units at Markland Hydro have served our customers well with clean, renewable energy since 1967,” said Melody Birmingham-Byrd, president of Duke Energy Indiana. “As we move toward increasingly cleaner energy, these modernized generation units will harness more of the renewable resources of the Ohio River for many years to come.”

More: Duke Energy

SandRidge Energy Flirting With Bankruptcy Decision

SandRidge Energy, an Oklahoma City oil and gas exploration company, has informed the Securities and Exchange Commission that it has talked with advisers about the possibility of filing for bankruptcy. Plunging natural gas prices and depressed energy demand have left a number of energy companies with onerous debt burdens.

The company laid off nearly 200 employees, including three executives, earlier this month. It has outstanding loans of nearly $600 million.

More: KOCO

Berkshire Power Pleads Guilty To Emissions Violations

Berkshire Power, the operator of a Western Massachusetts power plant, has agreed to plead guilty and pay $8.5 million for tampering with air pollution monitoring equipment and reporting false data about emissions levels.

Federal prosecutors say that employees at Berkshire Power in Agawam, Mass., manipulated the emissions monitoring system between January 2009 and March 2011 to conceal excess emissions. The actions were violations of the federal Clean Air Act.

The plant’s managers also violated the Federal Power Act for lying to ISO-NE about the plant’s availability to produce power, the first-ever criminal charges under that statute, according to the Justice Department.

More: The Boston Globe

April 4, 2016

MISO Proposes 3 New MTEP 17 Futures

By Amanda Durish Cook

MISO last week proposed the adoption of three new future scenarios intended to inform the development of the 2017 Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP 17).

Jenell McKay, a MISO senior analyst, told participants at a March 30 workshop that stakeholders are seeking a “range of modeling futures and some form of carbon reduction modeling” to assist in the planning cycle.

The three retooled “futures” include:

An “existing fleet” narrative in which MISO’s generation fleet is largely unchanged because of low demand and no carbon regulations are modeled. Already-planned coal retirements are factored into the scenario, and remaining coal units retire only after reaching their 65-year age limits. MISO also assumes renewable tax credits will expire in 2022, existing nuclear units will stay online and low natural gas prices and a stagnant economy curb renewable growth. As a result, gross aggregate demand grows at just 0.3 to 0.4%, and the energy growth rate is similarly low at 0.4 to 0.5%.
A “policy regulation” future based on the final Clean Power Plan rule, with a 25% reduction of carbon emissions across MISO, which drives 16 GW of coal retirements and increased reliance on mid-range-priced natural gas. MISO also assumes that nuclear units remain online and non-nuclear, non-coal generators retire according to 55-year age limits. Aggregate demand grows at the current 0.8 to 0.9% rate, while energy growth hovers around 0.7 to 0.9%.
An “accelerated alternative technologies” future in which a “robust” economy propels expanded demand, leading to a 35% carbon reduction and steering MISO to 24 GW worth of coal retirements. This future assumes high natural gas prices, retirement of non-nuclear, non-coal generators at 55-year age limits, license renewals for nuclear units and continuation of renewable tax credits beyond 2022. Aggregate demand and energy consumption growth rates both surpass 1% under the scenario.

To address stakeholder concerns about price volatility, all future scenarios assume a 30% variance between high and low natural gas prices during the study period. McKay said assumptions about storage technologies were not included in any of the narratives but could be inserted during an “R&D phase” over the next few months.

In response to several questions about why MISO is not modeling a business-as-usual case for MTEP 17, McKay responded that industry uncertainties about carbon regulation, coal retirements and renewable penetration made a definite BAU scenario elusive. “We didn’t feel comfortable calling anything business-as-usual,” she said. “For instance, if the CPP is upheld [following court challenges], the policy regulation future will be the business-as-usual case.”

Matt Ellis, MISO manager of policy studies, said stakeholders can still weigh in on the futures. “Do they pass a smell test? Are they reflecting what’s already happening on your factory floors?” he asked.

MISO hopes to continue discussion about the futures at an April 20 Planning Advisory Committee before putting them to a vote at the May PAC meeting.

OMS Asked to Back Modeling Allowance Auction

Meanwhile, the Organization of MISO States could urge MISO to model a carbon emissions allowance auction after being approached by the Coalition of MISO Transmission Customers about the issue last week.

Coalition representative Robert Weishaar told a March 31 OMS meeting that he raised the issue with MISO staff, who he said were “reluctant” to model the net cost of CPP CO₂ allowances that are auctioned rather than allocated.

Weishaar said he was not advocating an auction over an allocation but wanted to see both hypotheticals in MISO’s CPP modeling. “We’ve taken a particularly critical interest in MISO CPP modeling to date,” he said.

Calling the omission a “gap in the MISO modeling approach,” Weishaar asked for OMS’ support in endorsing a future letter on the matter.

Libby Jacobs of the Iowa Utilities Board said she would support such a letter, but other OMS members expressed indifference.

Texas Public Utility Commissioner Ken Anderson said an auction may affect generator dispatches and the fuel mix, but those points were moot. “Because we’re in the ‘just say no’ camp to the CPP, we’re not particularly interested in MISO modeling,” Anderson said.

April 4, 2016

How Utility Conservatism is Hampering Tx Innovation

By Rich Heidorn Jr.

WASHINGTON — Risk-averse engineers and outdated utility ratemaking structures are preventing quicker deployment of innovative technologies that could avoid transmission line rebuilds and save money, speakers told the Infocast Transmission Summit last week.

The discussion came in a session on how technologies such as dynamic line ratings, phasor measurement units and HVDC can increase the capacity of existing rights of way.

McCall © RTO Insider (utility, transmission) — McCall © RTO Insider)

Jack McCall, vice president of sales for Lindsey Manufacturing, likened DLRs and PMUs to technologies that can increase vehicle speeds on a curvy highway: PMUs are like Ferraris, which can take curves at high speeds; DLR, he said, is like straightening the road.

Gregg Rotenberg, president of Smart Wires, quoted former Southern Co. CEO David Ratcliffe, who said there are three types of transmission organizations: ostriches, who choose to ignore change; deer, who are frozen in place by change; and lions, who will seek to capitalize on the change and “are going to eat a bunch of ostrich and deer.”

Ali Amirali, senior vice president of private equity fund Starwood Energy Group Global, offered a fourth type: cats, who are indifferent to change. He cited the Bonneville Power Administration, which he said views its mission as delivering hydropower to preferred customers and does not seek to maximize the capacity of the system because it’s not part of the agency’s “mandate.”

“And they curtail wind all the time,” interjected Hudson Gilmer, vice president of commercial markets for Genscape.

Gilmer © RTO Insider (utility, transmission) — Gilmer *© RTO Insider*

DLRs, which can measure conductor temperature, sag and line capacity, as well as detect icing and “galloping” — high-amplitude, low-frequency oscillation caused by wind — have been available for more than a decade, but early applications required scheduling an outage and deployment of bucket trucks and crews. “And once it was on a line, congestion is almost like whack-a-mole; it moves around on your network,” Gilmer said. “And then it’s very hard to get [operations and maintenance] dollars to move it to a new place.”

“If you look back over the last 10 to 20 years, there have been so many studies done both in North America and elsewhere in the world that show that dynamic line rating truly does expose easily 10% to 25% additional capacity on any transmission line almost on a regular basis,” added McCall. “It’s a very low-hanging fruit.”

Newer DLR technologies, such as those sold by Genscape and Lindsey, are easier to install but still face institutional inertia.

(utility, transmission) — Amirali *© RTO Insider*

“Why do we not have real-time monitoring? … It’s not the technology. It is the policies. It is the standards. It is the personnel and it’s the decision making,” Amirali said.

“The people who are running the grid — me included, [a] former operator — are about the most conservative people on Earth,” he continued. “We are trained to be conservative. Because [if] an engineer takes a risk and he’s successful, nobody really knows about it [because] the system operates the way it was supposed to. We take a risk and we fail: Chernobyl!”

The resistance to change also is a function of utilities’ organizational structures and revenue models, speakers said.

“Risk doesn’t stop us from doing deals,” Rotenberg said. “The bigger challenge is those transmission organizations who choose to look at all the risk in front of them in terms of how fast the world is changing, how fast generation and load are changing and say, ‘No I’m just going to keep building the lines and reconductoring every line possible because I think my ratepayers will keep paying it.”

“What a utility gets rewarded on is deploying capital,” agreed Amirali. “Why build one line when you can build two?”

Rotenberg said his company has proposed a $30 million deployment of its technology for a western utility as an alternative to a $175 million reconductoring.

“Every regulator who’s heard about this project is saying, ‘How can I make sure my utility does it?’

“Eight of 10 [utility] CEOs … do understand [the value of cheaper non-transmission alternatives]. Only six out of 10 vice presidents of transmission understand that,” Rotenberg said. The transmission vice presidents’ view, he said, is that congestion is “not my cost.”

transmission, utility — Jack McCall talks while Jeffrey Hein of Excel and Ali Amirali listen *© RTO Insider*

McCall said FERC should offer DLR compensation based on the difference in LMPs with and without constraints the devices relieve, similar to the way it designed the compensation scheme for demand response in Order 745.

Amirali said the commission also should reconsider its 2010 Western Grid Development ruling (EL10-19), which approved use of storage to defer a transmission upgrade but said such resources could not be used for any other purpose if they are receiving a rate of return. He said the ruling discouraged more widespread use of storage.

“You’re buying a Cadillac for one day a year,” he said. “It’s a wasted use of an extraordinarily dynamic asset.”

Bouchard © RTO Insider — Bouchard *© RTO Insider*

In a separate session, Philippe Bouchard, vice president of business development for Eos Energy Storage, praised Maine regulators for requiring utilities to evaluate untraditional transmission alternatives.

“It’s not a requirement that they go purchase energy storage or demand response or anything else. It’s just integrating that viewpoint into the methodology of looking at all available resources to meet their needs,” he said. “And there’s some really great opportunities, 15 or 20 miles of transmission lines that are stretching into the pockets of Maine that are ripe for [transmission and distribution] deferral.”

Jeffrey-Hein,-Xcel-Energy-web — Hein *© RTO Insider*

Jeffrey Hein, senior manager of regional transmission policy for Xcel Energy, said planning regions across the country have included non-transmission alternatives in their procedures. “This may now begin to introduce some competition, to …. pit technology against technology, old, new, what’s best to place where.”

Rotenberg said “one or two big wins” are all that’s required to change the mindset.

“Once we have one or two projects that everyone was certain were going to be a new line or rebuild and turn it into a non-wires alternative, everyone’s eyes will open up,” he said. “The hurdle [for building new lines or upgrades] is going to become much higher. The certainty … that that upgrade is required for a very long time is just going to keep going up and up.”

April 4, 2016

ERCOT Approaches 50% Wind Penetration Mark

ERCOT, wind — Roscoe Wind Farm at sunrise *Source: Wikipedia*

ERCOT continues to creep closer to the 50% mark for wind penetration, reaching 48.28% of load on March 23. The Texas grid operator said last week it generated 13,154 MW of wind energy at 1:10 a.m., when the overall load was 27,245 MW.

The ISO’s previous high for wind penetration was 45.14%, set on Feb. 18. Its wind peak remains 14,023 MW, also set Feb. 18.

ERCOT has 15,764 MW of installed wind capacity. Wind energy accounted for 18.4% of its system generation in 2015.

— Tom Kleckner