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November 3, 2024

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PJM OC Briefs: Feb. 8, 2024

Stakeholders Endorse TO/TOP Matrix Revisions 

The Operating Committee endorsed revisions to the Transmission Owner/Transmission Operator (TO/TOP) Matrix, which defines the tasks TOs and PJM are accountable for to comply with NERC reliability standards. Gizella Mali, TO/TOP Matrix Subcommittee chair, said the changes reflect several new NERC reliability standards including EOP-011-4 (Emergency operations), FAC-014-3 (Establish and communicate system operating limits), IRO-017-1 (Outage coordination) and TOP-001-6 (Transmission operations). (See NERC Board Approves Cold Weather Standards.) 

Operating Metrics

PJM’s daily peak forecast error exceeded its targeted 3% two days last month, with actual loads Jan. 9 and Jan. 12 being between 3% and 4% higher than forecast, according to Markets Coordination Manager Stephanie Schwarz. The RTO experienced one shared reserve event and three spin events in January, and the winter storm that spread across the region in the middle of the month led to one conservative operations alert, two cold weather alerts and 22 post-contingency local load relief warnings. 

Security Update

PJM Director of Enterprise Information Security Jim Gluck urged members to keep computers and networked devices, particularly home routes for out-of-office employees, updated to reduce the risk that attackers can use old vulnerabilities to gain access to critical infrastructure and remain dormant. He said attacks from the Volt Typhoon group have targeted critical infrastructure software and attempted to fly under the radar by not installing malicious software to instead take advantage of any existing vulnerabilities. One of the group’s tactics has been using unsecured routers of employees working from home. 

A separate recent attack he highlighted used a company’s software development sandbox environment to gain access to a wider range of internal systems, including a portion of the company’s email accounts. He also gave the perennial advice that members be wary of suspicious communications that may be attempting to gain sensitive information or designed to trick employees into opening malicious files.  

Other Committee Business

    • Stakeholders endorsed revisions to Manual 38, which pertains to operations planning identified by PJM during the document’s periodic review. The new language would specify that the studies conducted by the Operations Assessment Task Force will use generation outage data selected from three previous seasons rather than comparable seasons. The changes are scheduled to be voted on by the Markets and Reliability Committee on Feb. 22. 
    • The committee endorsed revisions to Manual 40, which defines training and certification requirements, to update the titles of programs that have changed, clarify the responsibilities of different PJM positions and add detail to how rollover hours are calculated. The MRC is set to consider endorsing the changes Feb. 22. 
    • Stakeholders endorsed a PJM quick-fix proposal to remove the Compliance Bulletin 14 in Manual 3A and add language pointing to NERC’s bulk electric system (BES) element definitions. The compliance bulletin details how PJM members are to notify the RTO of any changes to BES elements resulting from NERC’s BES definition. The proposal is set for an endorsement vote at the MRC on Feb. 22 and at the System Operations Committee on March 1. 
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Report Outlines Cost Savings of All-electric Buildings in Mass.

New all-electric buildings will likely save Massachusetts homeowners thousands because of increasing gas system maintenance costs and the effects of a shrinking gas rate base, according to a report released Feb. 8 by Groundwork Data. 

The report said construction costs for all-electric residential buildings are now within 1% of buildings that rely on fossil fuels, while electric heating operating costs are lower than those for oil and propane but slightly higher than natural gas. 

“All-electric new construction is poised to quickly become much more cost-effective than gas under expected emissions regulations and increasing average gas delivery costs,” the report said. 

The analysis was commissioned by ZeroCarbonMA, a climate advocacy group that has pushed to ban fossil fuels in new buildings in the state. 

The report estimated that the state will hit an inflection point around 2030, when electrified heating customers will start to see cost savings relative to gas customers, with the savings steadily increasing in the coming decades, reaching $4,000 annually around 2055. 

Projected GSEP capex costs to ratepayers | Groundwork Data

“The three key drivers behind this inflection in energy costs are the increasing cost of gas pipeline maintenance (largely to manage leak-prone pipe), the declining consumption expected with even modest levels of heating electrification and potential efforts to regulate emissions,” the report said. 

While building electrification is likely to shrink the gas rate base, maintenance costs are projected to accelerate because of the state’s Gas System Enhancement Program (GSEP), which encourages gas utilities to replace leak-prone pipes to reduce methane emissions. 

In an analysis presented to the state in 2023, Groundwork estimated that GSEP investments between 2022 and 2039 will cost ratepayers more than $34 billion, with costs peaking around 2040. (See Mass. Gas Working Group Finalizes Recommendations to Legislature.) 

Increasing gas rates will likely be most burdensome for low- to moderate-income ratepayers who have less ability to switch to electric heating when gas rates accelerate, the report noted. Because a portion of the costs associated with new hookups is spread throughout the rate base, new gas connections could exacerbate affordability issues for existing customers. 

Groundwork’s Mike Walsh, the author of the report, said there is limited public data about how much of the cost of new gas hookups is covered by the general rate base. The formulas utilities use to determine the breakdown of costs between new customers and the rate base assume that these costs will eventually be recovered from customers over the extended life of their gas connection, he said. 

Walsh noted that the researchers did find data from one of the state’s smaller utilities that indicated that the rate base was on the hook for about 80% of the cost of a pipeline extension to connect a new customer. 

“Most of these homes that are being built in new construction, whether it’s commercial or residential, are for more affluent customers,” Walsh said. He added that if the new customers leave the system before the full costs can be recovered, “that’s an equity concern. We don’t know if that’s happening here because we don’t know what those formulas are.” 

For customers looking to electrify and exit the gas system, retrofitting existing buildings is not cheap. Electrification retrofits could cost $16,000 to $17,000, which could be avoided entirely if the building was built all-electric in the first place, the report said. 

“The state is going to be on the hook for more and more retrofits,” said Lisa Cunningham of ZeroCarbonMA. “We’re going to have to spend even more money retrofitting the gas infrastructure that’s going in today.” 

Cunningham emphasized that as gas costs accelerate, the costs of maintaining the system could increasingly fall on ratepayers who can’t afford the expensive retrofits needed to exit. 

The scope of retrofits looming over the state is significant. The final 2021 report from the state’s Commission on Clean Heat estimated that the state will need to electrify 500,000 residential homes by 2030 and 1.3 million homes between 2030 and 2050. 

Over the past few years, the state has passed several laws encouraging fossil fuel-free buildings. In 2021, the legislature created a municipal opt-in specialized energy code that incentivizes the construction of all-electric buildings, and in 2022 it created a pilot program to allow 10 municipalities to ban fossil fuels in most new buildings. 

However, all-electric buildings are far from a mandate for most of the state, and gas utilities have continued to add new connections in recent years. In the current legislative session, top lawmakers have been hesitant to expand the 10-town pilot program to include additional municipalities, citing the need to evaluate the data from the pilot. 

At the Feb. 7 deadline for the joint committees to report on bills, the legislature’s Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy (TUE) Committee declined to favorably report several bills to expand the pilot. 

The Senate side of the committee did favorably report several bills targeting the gas system, including S.2105, aimed at promoting and facilitating the transition to clean heating technologies, and S.2135, which would establish a moratorium on new or expanded fossil fuel infrastructure in the state. (See Mass. Lawmakers Aiming for an Omnibus Climate Bill in 2024.) 

The recommended bills from the House side do not include much to “move the needle on building emissions. … It’s more in the Senate,” Larry Chretien, of the Green Energy Consumers Alliance, told NetZero Insider. “Things like the report coming out of ZeroCarbonMA, I hope, will inform that discussion.” 

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SPP Regulators Settle Their Leadership Structure

SPP state regulators last week filled a leadership vacancy within the Regional State Committee by approving the Nomination Committee’s selection of Oklahoma Corporation Commission Chair Todd Hiett as its vice president.

He replaces Minnesota Commissioner John Tuma, who was to serve as the commission’s vice president this year until incoming President Will McAdams resigned from the Texas agency and the RSC last year. McAdams was elected as president during the state regulators’ October meeting, but Tuma said McAdams called him three hours after the meeting and told him he was planning to resign.

“I was elected vice president but immediately became president,” Tuma mused during the committee’s Feb. 5 meeting.

The Nebraska Power Review Board’s (NPRB) Chuck Hutchison remains the RSC’s treasurer and secretary, with Texas Commissioner Lori Cobos replacing McAdams.

McAdams officially resigned from the Texas commission in December and has since joined an Austin, Texas-based lobbying firm. He also agreed to consult with the RSC, focusing on the Resource and Energy Adequacy Leadership (REAL) Team under its chair, South Dakota Public Utilities Commissioner Kristie Fiegen. If time allows, McAdams also will work on interregional planning issues.

“He’s rolled up his sleeves and dived right into work already,” Tuma said. “I know that for a fact, because I’ve already approved the first invoice a couple of days ago.”

“I sincerely appreciate the work of the RSC leadership and of the REAL Team to allow me to continue to work on these important issues for the [load-resource entities], those utilities and stakeholders,” McAdams said. “I look forward to being able to work with you and members of the REAL Team to continue to address our large and important calendar.”

Revised RCAR Endorsed

The RSC approved the lessons learned from SPP’s third regional cost allocation review (RCAR), long a bone of contention by Missouri utilities that have felt the review’s methodology results in their benefit-to-cost ratio being unreasonably high.

The most recent RCAR, completed in 2022, left City Utilities of Springfield and Empire District Electric with B/C ratios of 14.87 and 7.99, respectively. Post-review adjustments lowered those ratios to 3.82 and 3.82, respectively.

Fiegen, who chaired the Regional Allocation Review Task Force, said after the first two reviews used “future theoretical models,” RCAR III used actual market data and compared it to the market without highway/byway projects.

“It had some unique opportunities to probably get more precise, but it also created some challenges,” she said.

Fiegen said the task force dug into years of daily market data to analyze the issue. Eventually, it determined the production cost runs in the base case and change case were accurate, but those liable for the costs were not as accurate as they were in the actual market.

The task force adjusted some of the benefits for the two utilities that “felt their benefits were overstated in our original report … to be more realistic,” Fiegen said. “Both of those entities have acknowledged these changes and found that they meet their needs.”

Commissioners unanimously approved seven recommended changes to the RCAR’s methodology and the updated RCAR 3.1.

JTIQ Backstop Funding OK’d

The committee unanimously agreed to a policy that the Department of Energy’s Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships (GRIP) funds be applied to offset capital costs’ allocation to load for SPP’s Joint Targeted Interconnection Queue (JTIQ) transmission portfolio with MISO. Using the DOE funds to cover the 10% allocation to load, with the balance going to generator interconnectors, the RTOs’ interregional load share will be eliminated.

NPRB’s John Krajewski, speaking for the RSC’s Cost Allocation Working Group, said subscriptions to fully fund the JTIQ projects are inadequate. He said conversations he’s had with transmission owners reveal a risk — and who bears it — if there’s not enough JTIQ participation.

“If the subscriptions don’t materialize, it’s the region that will be the backstop for any shortfalls that may occur,” he said. “For the first time, this would be a situation where we’re building projects without a guarantee of funding. The way that the tariff is currently written, the risk ends up falling back on the customers of this transmission owners who are building the projects.”

The DOE in October awarded $464.5 million in GRIP funds to MISO and SPP for their JTIQ portfolio. (See DOE Announces $3.46B for Grid Resilience, Improvement Projects.)

Last January, the RSC approved proposed cost allocations for the five projects in the portfolio. (See “Commissioners Approve 90-10 Split on JTIQ Cost Allocation,” SPP Regional State Committee Briefs: Jan. 30, 2023.)

The RSC also endorsed a pair of policy proposals related to availability and outage policies to avoid “paper resources,” Tuma said.

“We’re trying to … make sure that units that are in the workbooks, or outages that are done, are done in a way that we know what’s happening,” he said, “and that we have actual resources we know that we can count on when we’re doing our planning.”

SPP staff and the CAWG are collaborating on an “availability” definition (RR605) requiring load-responsible entities submitting deliverable or firm capacity to meet their resource adequacy requirement to certify the resource will be available and ready to perform at the accredited capacity level for the applicable season.

The REAL Team recommended prioritizing an outage policy for the winter planning resource margin while delaying additional components. The proposed policy will require any outage that is either taken or extended into the resource adequacy season without SPP’s approval to harm the LRE’s performance-based accreditation.

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NEPOOL Markets Committee Briefs: Feb. 6, 2024

Resource Capacity Accreditation Impact Analysis 

ISO-NE on Feb. 6 presented the NEPOOL Markets Committee with the initial results of the RTO’s Resource Capacity Accreditation (RCA) impact analysis modeling, providing a preliminary look at how the changes will affect the accreditation values and capacity market revenues of different resource classes. 

The initial results showed that the accredited capacity value of the entire resource mix decreased by about 17%. The resource classes generally boosted by the RCA updates include wind, energy efficiency and hydro. Accreditation values also increased slightly for dual-fuel gas and oil resources, as well as for a broad category of nonintermittent resources including nuclear, coal, wood, municipal solid waste and landfill gas. 

In contrast, the RCA changes would significantly decrease the accredited capacity of oil-only, battery storage, active demand response and solar resources. Gas-only resources would also take a modest hit. 

ISO-NE’s Dane Schiro noted that the resource class impacts are aggregations. He highlighted some of the main factors that could impact an individual resource’s accredited capacity. 

For thermal resources, having a high rate of historical forced outages was generally a significant factor in the loss of accreditation. Resource size also plays a role: Smaller thermal resources typically have higher accreditation values, because a forced outage of a smaller resource is less likely to cause shortfalls. 

The accredited capacity of storage resources depends largely on duration, Schiro said. For intermittent resources like solar and wind, higher accreditation values will go to resources that typically produce energy during the times it is most needed. 

As the resource mix and the timing of reliability concerns continue to shift, the capacity values and revenues for different resource classes will also shift. While ISO-NE assessed that about 80% of the loss-of-load risk occurs in the summer, the shift in risk toward winter will likely increase the annual accreditation values of resources that perform better in that season. 

In March, ISO-NE is planning to present to the MC the results of modeling sensitivities related to the resource mix and load profile and will detail how these factors affect accreditation values. 

Nonfirm Gas Modeling Concerns

Pallas LeeVanSchaick of Potomac Economics, ISO-NE’s External Market Monitor, outlined for the MC some concerns about the RTO’s proposed approach to accrediting non-firm gas capacity. 

ISO-NE said at the previous MC meeting that a “market constraint approach” that would limit the total amount of capacity available to gas resources would be its preferred method, but it said this method “is not implementable” for Forward Capacity Auction 19. (See NEPOOL Markets Committee Briefs: Jan. 11, 2024.) 

LeeVanSchaick said ISO-NE’s proposed interim “derating approach” will likely overaccredit nonfirm gas resources, reducing the incentives for firm fuel contracts that would increase winter reliability. 

He proposed that ISO-NE should instead “estimate the marginal reliability impact (rMRI) of nonfirm gas-fired units in the same manner as other resource types,” and accredit capacity using an rMRI floor “that would be sufficiently high to ensure available nonfirm gas is fully utilized in periods of reliability risk.” 

The Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office expressed concerns in a January letter to the RTO that its proposal would overaccredit nonfirm gas resources while showing interest in expediting work on a market constraint approach. 

“The opportunity to bypass ISO’s transitional derating approach would be a substantial benefit to the development of a seasonal capacity market proposal for FCA 19,” the AGO wrote. 

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OMS, OPSI Urge MISO, PJM to Invigorate Interregional Planning

The state regulatory organizations for both MISO and PJM have sent a letter to the RTOs asking them to redouble efforts around interregional transmission planning.   

The Organization of MISO States (OMS) and the Organization of PJM States, Inc. (OPSI) penned a joint letter to MISO and PJM, telling them the time is right to initiate long-term interregional transmission planning. The letter was signed by the presidents of OMS and OPSI and addressed to the RTOs’ Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee. MISO South state agencies didn’t participate in the letter.  

“The transition from dispatchable thermal generators to intermittent, clean energy resources, and a surge in electric demand raise challenges to PJM, MISO and their interconnected neighbors’ ability to reliably and cost-effectively support one another when called upon,” OMS and OPSI wrote.  

The organizations said their concerns are heightened by increasingly common severe weather. They said MISO and PJM were “heavily dependent” on one another’s resources while importing and exporting to other neighboring regions during the December 2022 arctic blast. They also said last August’s heatwave forced MISO to import roughly 8.5 GW from PJM and Manitoba.  

“While these events were managed, the growing frequency of these events and shrinking capacity reserves in each footprint [have] the potential to disrupt electricity supplies, which in turn disrupts the economy and may put public health and safety at risk. Expanding transfer capacity between regions can help to improve grid resilience and minimize the negative impacts of extreme weather events,”  

OMS and OPSI pointed to the U.S. Department of Energy’s recent National Transmission Needs study, FERC considering a rule to establish a minimum transfer capability between regions and Congress tasking NERC with studying interregional transmission capacity.  

“With these factors in mind, OPSI and the OMS urge PJM and MISO to begin to explore joint long-term interregional transmission planning between their footprints while maintaining a focus on affordability and identifying optimal solutions,” the organizations wrote. 

The two said MISO and PJM should jointly model their systems, work with state regulators to agree on reliability and policy objectives, and borrow from their existing long-term planning to devise an interregional process.  

“Both of our organizations have a renewed focus on interregional planning,” OMS Executive Director Marcus Hawkins said during a Feb. 7 MISO Advisory Committee teleconference. 

RTOs Respond

MISO responded that it’s always looking to improve its planning processes, including interregional planning.  

“MISO has a long history of performing coordinated interregional transmission planning with its neighboring grid operators. Interregional planning helps us identify projects that improve the system’s ability to mitigate constraints, respond to extreme weather and increase interregional transfer capability,” spokesperson Brandon Morris said in an emailed statement to RTO Insider.  

Morris said MISO appreciates the regulators’ input and looks forward to “enhancing our work with our neighboring transmission planning partners while balancing our staffing needs to identify and move forward the regional and interregional solutions needed to respond to the evolving resource mix.”  

PJM spokesperson Jeffrey Shields said PJM already engages in healthy collaboration with its neighbors to identify congestion-relieving and reliability-boosting projects, as outlined in the MISO-PJM joint operating agreement.  

In an emailed statement to RTO Insider, Shields said PJM has significant export capability, as evidenced by the 12 GW in exports PJM flowed to neighbors at the height of the mid-January arctic blast.  

“At the same time, PJM is committed to working with MISO and others to determine if more should be done with interregional transmission. That discussion is ongoing,” Shields said. “PJM believes that the best way forward is with analysis on how best to define whether and what level of transmission solutions are needed to ensure sufficient interregional transfer capability. We need to understand very clearly what the problem is that we’re solving for before committing significant investments that will be borne by customers.” 

Shields said while a minimum transfer capability is “sensible,” interregional planning should not become a substitute for RTOs maintaining adequate reserve margins.

“If all of our regions are hit with the same winter storm, the results could be very harmful to consumers,” he said.  

The grid operators will address the regulatory organizations’ request again at the March 1 teleconference of their Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee.  

MISO and PJM have approved one large interregional market efficiency project in 2020 and four sets of smaller transmission projects aimed at relieving congestion since 2017. The two haven’t completed an interregional transmission planning study since 2022.  

In a report last year, the American Council on Renewable Energy concluded MISO and PJM could save their ratepayers $15 billion over a little more than a decade if they dedicated more resources to planning interregional transmission. (See New Report Finds MISO, PJM Could Save Billions Through Interregional Tx Expansion.)  

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Early MTEP 24 Designates $5.5B in Transmission Spending

MISO revealed last week that its draft 2024 Transmission Expansion Plan calls for $5.5 billion in projects, with the South region again accounting for some of this year’s most expensive projects.

MISO has a $5.5 billion, 453-project portfolio in its hands thus far under MTEP 24, stakeholders learned over a series of subregional planning meetings last week. The draft MTEP 24 represents a more typical investment amount for MISO’s annual transmission cycle on the heels of the record-breaking, $9 billion MTEP 23.

However, MISO South transmission owners are continuing last year’s trend of recommending costly local projects.

MTEP 24 contains $793 million in generator interconnection projects, $904 million in baseline reliability projects needed to meet NERC criteria and almost $3.8 billion in “other” projects, or projects needed to address load growth, the age and condition of existing facilities and transmission owners’ self-imposed reliability criteria.

Draft MTEP 24 spending | MISO

MISO said the 10 most expensive projects account for 26% of the total proposed MTEP 24 costs, with seven located in MISO South.

MTEP 24’s costliest baseline reliability projects either rebuild or construct lines and substations in the South. The portfolio also includes projects to meet load growth in central Mississippi. The central part of the state is positioned for even more load growth, with Entergy announcing it will power two data centers totaling $10 billion for Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s cloud technology subsidiary.

“Again, we have a big year in the South,” Trevor Armstrong, manager of MISO South’s expansion planning, said during a Feb. 8 South Subregional Planning meeting.

Armstrong said most of the generator interconnection upgrades in the South region are intended to connect new solar farms.

Amanda Schiro, MISO senior manager of expansion planning, attributed some of the continued uptick in MISO South projects to load growth while working around the South’s webbing of load pockets.

Schiro said MISO will select some projects for project alternatives study, though it hasn’t decided which projects warrant further analysis. She said MISO will keep stakeholders informed on which projects are getting a second look.

“We are looking for more efficient solutions, potentially larger solutions to replace some local projects,” Schiro said during a Feb. 5 Central Subregional Planning meeting.

However, at a Feb. 6 West Subregional Planning meeting, Expansion Planning Manager Zheng Zhou said there are “limited opportunities” to devise alternatives for some project categories, such as load growth, age and condition replacements, and smaller projects, such as breaker replacements.

Some stakeholders urged members to upgrade to advanced conductors when completing age and condition projects. They said using state-of-the-art conductors on replacement projects will save money in the long run.

MISO will continue to evaluate part of a project Entergy submitted last year to meet load growth in the Amite South load pocket in southeast Louisiana under MTEP 24. MISO made a substitution on the first section of Energy Louisiana’s nearly $2 billion, three-part Amite South reliability project during MTEP 23 and delayed approval of the third portion of the project until it can vet project substitutes. (See MTEP 23 Catapults to $9.4B; MISO Replaces South Reliability Projects.)

So far, MISO hasn’t landed on a satisfactory alternative to part three of Amite South project, but it’s still searching.

“At this point, we’re performing longer-term studies to see how it fits in with the phase one and two portions of the project,” Armstrong said.

Schiro said last year’s MTEP represented the largest investment in the South region since its integration 11 years ago. She also said MTEP 23 saw a record-breaking number of generator interconnection queue applications.

Over 2023, MISO developers struck generator interconnection agreements for 69 projects and withdrew 145 projects.

More withdrawals are all but certain. For the 2021 cycle of generation projects wishing to connect in MISO South, MISO’s studies show $14.5 billion in network upgrade costs is needed. MISO said South region generation projects currently face around $100 million apiece in interconnection costs.

MISO’s current generator interconnection queue consists of 1,379 projects totaling 237.1 GW. Those figures don’t yet include the 2023 class of project submittals. MISO has put those entries on hold until March while it implements new, stricter queue rules meant to discourage speculative generation projects. (See MISO to Try Again for Interconnection Queue MW Cap, Open Window for 2023 Requests.)

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Biden Drops ‘Acting’ from Phillips’ Title; Clements to Leave at End of Term

President Joe Biden on Friday removed “acting” before FERC Chair Willie Phillips’ title, as Commissioner Allison Clements announced she would not seek a second term.

Phillips had been serving as “acting” chair since the start of 2023 after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) refused to hold hearings for the renomination of former Chair Richard Glick, who had to step down at the end of 2022.

“I’m honored to continue to lead FERC as chairman and thank [the president] for his faith in my leadership,” Phillips posted on X. “I’m laser focused on securing a reliable, affordable and sustainable energy future for our nation.”

The “acting” title did not functionally change Phillips’ job at the commission; it signaled that the White House had intended to replace him with a new commissioner. (See Phillips Addresses Acting Status as FERC Awaits Nominees.)

The announcement came the same day that POLITICO reported that Clements would not seek another term, which her office confirmed to RTO Insider. But it would not comment on what she intended to do after her term expires June 30; commissioners whose terms have expired without a replacement can stay at their posts until Congress adjourns at the end of the year.

The opening means the White House and Senate will have up to three new nominees to process. Glick’s seat has been open since his departure, and former Commissioner James Danly’s has been since the end of last year, as he also stayed past his own June 30 term expiration. (See Secretary Bose and Commissioner Danly Honored at Their Final FERC Meeting.)

Failing to move any nominees before Clements departs would leave FERC short of a quorum and unable to vote out orders, which happened early in former President Donald Trump’s term.

Before joining FERC in late 2021, Phillips was chair of the D.C. Public Service Commission. He previously worked as assistant general counsel at NERC. He earned his law degree from Howard University School of Law and his bachelor’s from the University of Montevallo.

Clements came to FERC in December 2020 after a range of experience in energy law in both the public and private sectors with stints at Energy Foundation, Good Grid and the Natural Resources Defense Council. She earned her law degree from the George Washington University Law School and her bachelor’s from the University of Michigan.

The news about Phillips’ title was applauded by many, with Manchin, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chair, saying he looked forward to working with him on an “all-of-the-above energy policy.”

“Throughout the last year overseeing a very productive and bipartisan FERC, Chairman Willie Phillips has proven time and time again that he was the right person to lead this ever-important agency from the start,” Manchin said. “Amid the ongoing need to bolster our energy infrastructure, I have no doubt that Chairman Phillips will continue to lead FERC with his wealth of experience and consensus-building skills to the benefit of our country.”

Advanced Energy United Managing Director Caitlin Marquis also welcomed the news, noting it will allow Phillips to continue working on key issues like transmission planning.

“As FERC continues work on these issues and takes up additional priorities, Advanced Energy United asks that the Biden administration quickly nominate new commissioners eager to tackle the challenges and opportunities facing the electricity system, ensuring that FERC is wholly staffed and equipped to take on critical energy sector issues,” Marquis said.

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NERC Addresses Growing EV Risks in White Paper

In a newly published white paper, NERC warned that remaining industry “knowledge gaps” around electric vehicles and their charging systems may make it difficult for grid operators to maintain reliability. 

The Potential Bulk Power System Impact of Electric Vehicle Chargers report, released Feb. 8, examines the effect that the adoption of EVs — specifically, the widespread installation of EV chargers at homes and businesses — might have on the reliability of the North American electric grid.  

NERC has studied the topic before, releasing a report last April with WECC and the California Mobility Center on the performance of EV chargers during grid disturbances. (See NERC, WECC Outline EV Charging Reliability Impacts.) The new white paper was intended to build on this study, as well as a similar report by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory released in 2021. 

Citing a 2022 projection from online EV marketplace Recurrent Auto, NERC noted that EVs are now expected to account for more than half of new vehicle sales in the U.S. by 2030. This is more than double the expectation when Recurrent first performed the projection in 2018 and is based on market factors such as growth in consumer demand and supply chain improvements.  

An EV owner is necessarily also an EV charger, and grid planners will need to account for the load created by all these new sources of demand for electricity. This challenge comprises the main focus of NERC’s white paper.  

The ERO noted that “larger EV charging loads are anticipated to use higher charging levels that necessitate direct connection to the BPS to supply a large EV charging load.” At the same time, the mobile nature of EVs means they could conceivably charge at any location, whether they have the specialized equipment for faster charging or not. This adds an element of uncertainty to load forecasting. 

In addition, NERC pointed out that EV charging can be “grid-friendly” or grid-unfriendly depending on the approach used. Grid-friendly charging supports the stable operation of the grid by reducing voltage when grid voltage drops, while unfriendly charging increases voltage during such times, putting more strain on the grid. An overabundance of grid-unfriendly charging stations could have a negative effect on reliability. 

The white paper includes the results of a study performed by NERC to evaluate the potential effect of EVs on reliability. In the study, a single base connection represented the Western Interconnection, with the team altering elements of the scenario to simulate large-scale EV adoption. Four cases were developed: a long-term horizon under heavy summer conditions with and without high EV adoption, and near-term horizon under light spring conditions with and without high EV adoption.  

The study team found that EV chargers did exhibit some troubling behavior in their simulations. For example, some chargers appeared to exhibit a delay in sensing system faults and performing ride-through behavior or changing their tripping modes, which could slow system recovery. The team also noticed delays in returning to pre-disturbance consumption, which might also complicate operators’ visibility into the state of the system. 

NERC recommended that manufacturers of EVs and charging systems improve their collaboration with electric utilities and “establish performance criteria and standards regarding grid-friendly EV charging methods.” The ERO said that if such collaboration proves difficult, policy makers may need to intervene.  

The white paper also recommended that transmission planners incorporate charger performance into their planning criteria to indicate the performance types that are grid-friendly for their area. NERC suggested manufacturers could “address these criteria with EV charging software updates.” 

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ISO-NE Moving Forward with Prompt, Seasonal Capacity Market Design

ISO-NE told the NEPOOL Markets Committee on Feb. 7 that it is proposing a major redesign to its capacity market, moving from a three-years-ahead schedule to a prompt and seasonal design.

To accommodate the change, the RTO is also proposing an additional two-year delay of Forward Capacity Auction 19 for the 2028/29 capacity commitment period (CCP).

FCAs are currently held more than three years prior to each CCP. ISO-NE is proposing to break up the CCP into distinct seasons and hold the capacity auction just several months before its start.

ISO-NE has been contemplating the move with NEPOOL stakeholders for several months and commissioned Analysis Group to study the proposed changes. The consulting firm recommended that the RTO make the move, writing that it would “support the transition toward a grid of the future.” (See Analysis Group Recommends Prompt, Seasonal Capacity Market for ISO-NE.)

To provide time to complete the changes, ISO-NE is also proposing a “backstop” two-year delay of FCA 19 if the redesign is not approved by the time it is to be held in February 2026. FERC had approved a one-year delay of the auction to allow the RTO to implement its resource capacity accreditation (RCA) changes and contemplate the move to a prompt and seasonal market. (See FERC Approves ISO-NE’s One-Year Delay of FCA 19.)

ISO-NE expects the MC to vote on the delay of FCA 19 in March. The RTO did not comment on when it would put the redesign before stakeholders.

Chris Geissler of ISO-NE said the changes would better prepare the region for the changing resource mix and demand profile. A prompt market would better reflect “demand and resource capabilities used to determine capacity awards, thereby producing more cost-effective outcomes,” he said.

While New England’s grid reliability risks have historically been concentrated in the summer, ISO-NE anticipates that winter will surpass it in the coming years with the increase in heating and transportation electrification. Geissler said a seasonal market would help the region prepare for this shift because it “more accurately accounts for seasonal differences in resources’ supply capabilities and forecast energy demand.”

Geissler also highlighted some design components that have yet to be determined. These include when exactly the prompt auction would be held, the number and length of the seasons, and whether seasonal auctions would be held separately or all at the same time.

A prompt and seasonal market would also mean significant changes to the resource retirement process, which is currently connected to the FCM, Geissler said. While ISO-NE could decouple the retirement process from the capacity market to maintain the current retirement notice timeline, a shorter timeline could provide some benefits, he said.

“ISO plans to prioritize evaluating retirement process reforms, including tradeoffs between shorter and longer time frames, and to discuss its recommendations with stakeholders early in the prompt/seasonal design discussions,” Geissler said.

Geissler noted that the proposal “includes language allowing resources with early in-service dates to submit qualification materials in 2025 and 2026” to allow them to quantify for earlier reconfiguration auctions.

In a public letter to ISO-NE issued in mid-January, Jamie Donovan, an analyst in the Energy and Environment Bureau of the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office, expressed support for a seasonal market but said the AGO is “still weighing the tradeoffs of a prompt market.”

Donovan added that the AGO is concerned “that the expanding scope of capacity reforms could increase project implementation risk and [about] the difficult situation that could arise if FCA 19 is further delayed for the development of a prompt/seasonal market design that is not completed in time or rejected by FERC.”

Once stakeholders have voted on the additional delay, “we encourage the ISO to release as much of its impending market design as quickly as possible for stakeholder review and feedback,” Donovan said.

Alex Lawton of Advanced Energy United said the organization is “concerned that this change is moving forward without sufficient stakeholder discussion.”

“There are several important concerns that will not be addressed until after stakeholders are asked to vote on the issue,” Lawton said. He added that the organization would like to see more analysis on how the transition would impact price formation and “whether a prompt market can adequately incentivize new resource entry without the three-year forward price lock under the status quo.”

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CEC Reduces Calif. Electricity Forecast on Lower Population Growth

Slower anticipated growth in California’s population has prompted state regulators to downwardly revise the electricity demand forecast used for grid planning. 

The reduced demand relative to a 2022 forecast is projected to continue to about 2033. But after that, the latest forecast shows a surge in demand compared to previous predictions, as the state’s potential new requirements for zero-emission appliances are expected to kick in. 

The forecast is part of the California Energy Commission’s 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). The proposed final IEPR will go to the commission for approval Feb. 14. 

The CEC calls its California energy demand forecast “foundational” to state energy planning. The California Public Utilities Commission uses the forecast in overseeing energy procurement, while CAISO uses it in transmission planning. 

Like previous forecasts, the CEC’s new projections show a steep growth in statewide electricity demand due to California’s rapid shift toward electrification of transportation and buildings. 

Climate change is also expected to increase load, as heat waves are projected to become longer, hotter and more frequent, CEC said. 

From the 2018 forecast to the 2022 forecast, the expected peak demand in 2030 increased by more than 5 GW. 

Population Trends

In contrast, the latest forecast has revised energy demand downward compared with previous predictions — at least through about 2033. 

The change is based on a statewide population growth of 0.2% a year, which is less than the previous projections of 0.4% annual growth. The slower expected population growth follows a state population decrease of about 0.5% in 2022. The population data come from the California Department of Finance. 

“The slowdown in population growth can be attributed to slow in-migration and steady out-migration on top of an aging baby boomer population and declining fertility,” the report said. 

Other factors that contributed to a lower load forecast are anticipated electric rates that are higher than previously predicted, and projections of greater growth in rooftop solar generation. 

But after 2033, projected load starts to rise above previously predicted levels. That’s partly due to the expected impacts of zero-emission appliance rules that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is considering. 

Last year, CARB started holding workshops on the potential rules, which would apply to new natural gas-powered space and water heaters for residential and commercial buildings. If approved, the regulations are expected to become effective in 2030. (See California Considers Zero-emission Appliance Rules.) 

2040 Peak Demand

The IEPR forecast shows CAISO peak demand growing by 1.8% a year and hitting 63,442 MW by 2040. CAISO’s record peak demand is 52,061 MW, set on Sept. 6, 2022. Peak demand in 2023 was 44,534 MW on Aug. 16, the ISO reported. 

The energy forecast also includes projections for managed electricity sales, in which customer generation is deducted from consumption. The figures also factor in the projected impacts of energy efficiency, building electrification and transportation electrification. 

Managed electricity sales are expected to grow from about 245,000 GWh in 2023 to 352,563 GWh in 2040. Solar generation is expected to hit 64,460 GWh by 2040. 

CEC continually works to improve its energy demand modeling. For the 2023 forecast, CEC moved away from relying on historical data for its weather forecasts. The agency worked with Lumen Energy Strategy to incorporate global climate models into its projections. 

CEC considers the impacts of regulations, policies and programs through an “additional achievable scenario” framework. Additional achievable load modifiers are applied for energy efficiency, transportation electrification and the fuel substitution that occurs with the shift to electric appliances. 

The forecast includes estimates of the impacts from planned data centers, as well as load growth from increased cannabis consumption. 

Port electrification is “partially accounted for,” CEC said. But electricity needed for hydrogen production is not included “because of the high uncertainty around the future of hydrogen,” the report said.