In filings submitted to the Department of Public Utilities (DPU) on April 16, the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office (AGO) and Department of Energy Resources (DOER) expressed concern about the climate effects of proposed utility supply contracts to keep the Everett Marine Terminal (EMT) LNG import facility operating until 2030.
Despite their concerns, the AGO and DOER did not recommend the DPU reject the utilities’ petitions, noting that the contracts may be needed to support the short-term reliability of the state’s gas distribution network. Instead, the AGO and DOER called on the DPU to make any approvals contingent on additional transparency and long-term planning requirements (DPU 24-25, 24-26, 24-27 and 24-28).
The contracts between four Massachusetts gas utilities and EMT owner Constellation are intended to keep the facility open through the winter of 2030. Everett’s main customer, Constellation’s Mystic Generating Station, is set to retire at the end of May of this year. (See Constellation Reaches Agreements to Keep Everett LNG Terminal Open.)
With Mystic’s impending closure, Constellation can void the contracts if the utilities do not gain final approval from the DPU by May 1. This has led to expedited regulatory proceedings, in which state agencies and environmental groups have voiced concerns about the agreements’ projected $946 million price tag, as well as their alignment with the state’s decarbonization mandates. (See Everett LNG Contracts Face Skepticism in DPU Proceedings.)
In initial briefs filed April 16, the AGO and DOER expanded on their cost and emissions concerns and recommended additional guardrails to ensure the agreements do not hinder the state’s emissions reduction efforts.
“While the companies claim that the agreements are GWSA [Global Warmings Solutions Act] compliant, they have not provided any specific analysis to support these claims,” wrote the DOER.
National Grid, one of the state’s two major gas utilities, projects its gas demand to increase by about 11% by 2030, and its agreement with Constellation would allow the company to buy increasing amounts of LNG over the course of the contract.
The company argued in its initial brief that its agreement is needed to address “a deficit in the company’s available peak day and peak season resources.”
“The proposed agreement will not trigger any additional demand for gas,” National Grid wrote. “Any changes in demand in the commonwealth are independent of this proposed agreement, and customers will have the same demand for energy regardless of whether this proposed agreement is completed.”
Given the potential for gas demand to increase by the end of the agreements, the AGO stressed the need for the utilities to plan to develop an “exit strategy” from their reliance on Everett.
“Since 2015, [National Grid subsidiary] Boston Gas has taken no overt actions to address its readily apparent dependence on EMT,” the AGO wrote. “The company’s appetite for EMT LNG is only forecasted to burgeon four-fold over the next six years.”
Similarly, the DOER argued that “if the department approves the agreements, it should only be a short-term bridge to ensure reliability and must include a pathway to obviate each company’s need for EMT by the end of the contract terms in 2030.”
Throughout the proceedings, climate advocates have voiced concerns that the timing of the agreements lines up with the in-service date of a major pipeline expansion proposal for the Northeast. (See Enbridge Announces Project to Increase Northeast Pipeline Capacity.)
The DOER recommended the DPU require the gas utilities to detail plans to “eliminate their reliance on EMT” in their Climate Compliance Plans due in the spring of 2025. The DOER also urged the DPU to mandate annual reports on gas costs, volumes, and third-party sales associated with the agreements.
These provisions are “essential in safeguarding consumers against the possibility that the companies would continue to be dependent on EMT in six-years or petition the department for approval of gas infrastructure alternatives that run counter to the Future of Gas principles or GHG emissions reduction mandates,” the DOER wrote.
Meanwhile, the AGO recommended annual reports from the utilities on their efforts to eliminate reliance on Everett, as well as on whether the agreements have aligned with the state’s decarbonization laws and the DPU’s recent “Future of Gas” orders, which discourage additional investments in gas infrastructure. (See Massachusetts Moves to Limit New Gas Infrastructure.)
Without such requirements, “ratepayers will again helplessly succumb to petitions by these LDCs [local distribution companies] for ongoing LNG supply from Constellation because, currently, these LDCs have no plan, obligation or intention [to] end their dependence on EMT,” the AGO wrote.
HOUSTON — The Gulf Coast Power Association’s 37th annual Spring Conference tackled the vexing assignment of how to reliably serve Texas’ unprecedented surge in demand with a cleaner energy supply.
The April 16-17 event featured experts from organizations trying to rise to the challenge and the companies behind the soaring demand.
“I just got to say it loud and clear: Since Uri, we’re too much talk and not enough cattle,” Hunt Energy Network CEO and former FERC Chair Pat Wood said during a keynote speech. “The fundamental fact is: We have told the world that Texas is ‘open for business.’ Everyone in this room believes it, and the world is responding. Companies are moving here in droves. People are flooding the state from both coasts.
“We’ve said we’re open for business, but we haven’t stocked the shelves. … We’ve invited gigawatts of new business and residential demand to come to our store, but we are woefully short on serving them.”
Wood said ERCOT needs to build a system that won’t “fail catastrophically from the center” but one that’s “redundantly resilient” to protect from overlapping risks. And Texas needs to unveil an “ERCOT 3.0” that adopts a “wartime-level sense of urgency,” upgrade the grid, streamline the interconnection queue and design pricing that inspires investors to build dispatchable generation without taxpayer subsidies. “Trucks and cranes from the Red River to the Rio Grande,” he said.
Wood also said Texas risks its “envy of the world” status in industry if it cannot employ creative solutions, including energy efficiency, load participation, and multidirectional flows on the transmission and distribution systems to unlock behind-the-meter generation.
“To paraphrase my old boss, we want no electron left behind. Let’s get back to work,” he said.
Wood said ERCOT’s future supply will be “digitalized, decentralized, diversified, democratized, dependable and decarbonized.” He said it’s ironic that Texas is at the vanguard of clean energy in a state that’s “almost embarrassed to talk about” climate change.
Outgoing Calpine CEO Thad Hill said it’s obvious Texas’ load is growing from data centers, manufacturing, natural gas and “maybe hydrogen.”
“This is more big-load-driven than it’s ever been. We’re talking about 300 to 400 MW hooking up to the grid at a time,” he said.
Hill said, however, he isn’t anxious over the future.
“What you’re going to hear from me is more hopeful,” he said. There’s cause for optimism because additions of price-responsive load are outstripping traditional load additions, and solar-and-storage combinations are blossoming, helping to solve ERCOT’s summer reliability issues.
Hill said ERCOT’s “major to do” should be creating a formal program for price-response load, more comprehensive than its existing Emergency Response Service. The hot summer and high prices in Texas in 2023 prodded new investment in dispatchable resources. He said gas plant plans in the ERCOT queue have doubled, with battery storage rising fivefold.
“Capital is flowing to dispatchable resources. … Gas is up; batteries are up. But man, we’ve got to find a way to institutionalize price-responsive load as a resource,” he said.
Hill also acknowledged that additions of short-duration battery storage have a ceiling on their usefulness.
“What happens when reserve events outlast the resources?” he asked, noting that ERCOT experienced two events upward of seven hours in which it needed consistent reserves, once in early September and once in early November. He said ERCOT should evaluate the duration it needs its ancillary services to last.
“Storage is doing great things for this market,” Hill said, but he urged market designers to be realistic about how long it can deliver. He said storage in ERCOT already has been found short of state of charge when called upon.
Hill advised Texas lawmakers to “take a legislative breather and let the experts work.” The legislature, which has been active the past two sessions, now needs to allow the Public Utility Commission’s and ERCOT’s plans to “take root.”
“We’ve got a good thing, though there’s been trauma along the way,” Hill said, referencing Winter Storm Uri. “I think we’re going to be just fine.”
On a panel concerning the “insatiable” demand for power, Entergy Texas CEO Eliecer Viamontes said his territory is seeing “once-in-a-generation load growth” that must be met with aggressive capacity buildout to elude load shed.
“This is game changing. We cannot propose incremental generation,” he said.
“I’ve been astounded at load growth. It’s something [that] 10 years ago, I wouldn’t have predicted,” said Jack Farley, HIF USA’s executive vice president.
Farley predicted about “one in five” of the approximately 60 GW of flexible load projects lined up in ERCOT’s queue will reach commercial operation.
“Nonflexible loads will have to become somewhat flexible going forward,” said Jeff Hanson, Digital Realty’s senior director of energy supply chain. It’s the “only way to address” infrastructure expansion failing to keep up with climbing load, he said.
Hanson said industry will remain drawn to Texas because of the welcoming regulatory climate that allows renewables to be built quickly, the “deep, deep pools” of sunshine and wind, the vastness of the state and the “lack of NIMBY-ism.”
Farley said behind-the-meter generation can help moderate runaway demand. Hanson added that large loads might consider adding their own onsite generation.
CenterPoint Energy Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Jason Ryan said Texas needs to employ an “all-of-the-above” strategy “to the max” to meet demand. With Houston’s energy needs set to double by 2050, he said the state already is behind in mounting major infrastructure buildouts. He asked the audience to consider the “100-plus years” it took for Houston to assemble its current grid.
Hanson predicted ERCOT will “be dancing on the edge” for a few tough years until infrastructure expansion can catch up.
Bryan Fisher, managing director of climate aligned industries at RMI, said industrial decarbonization alone could double the nation’s demand for power.
“Texas and the Gulf Coast are ground zero for industrial decarbonization,” Fisher told attendees. He said the Houston area alone has the potential to serve not only national demand for hydrogen, but the world’s market as well. He said RMI’s preliminary analysis shows Houston could be confronting 2.5 times its peak demand today by 2050 because of the added demands of industrial electrification, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and sequestration.
Calls for ERCOT Transmission Planning
Priority Power Director of Development Brian Hudson said a decade ago, forecasters talked about 300 to 500 MW of load growth. He said those figures exploded in recent years to gigawatts.
“It’s got to be stuff that we haven’t tried before to keep up with the pace,” he said.
He said in addition to dynamic line ratings, Texas should consider making it easier for behind-the-meter generation projects of 10 MW and above to interconnect to the distribution system and lighten load.
Kip Fox, president of Electric Transmission Texas (ETT), an American Electric Power and Berkshire Hathaway Energy partnership, said he’s trying to energize a new line but can’t get approval from ERCOT for the necessary outage of nearby equipment because of current levels of demand. He said if ERCOT doesn’t give the go-ahead for an outage soon, ETT likely will have to wait through the summer moratorium to energize the line.
“We’re not fast enough to build. … It’s not like we haven’t submitted ideas to build transmission. But at the end of the day, someone in the regulatory space is going to have to realize we need it,” Fox said.
Kris Zadlo, chief commercial and technology officer at Grid United, said it’s no longer the pandemic causing supply chain woes, but skyrocketing load growth.
“We have unprecedented demand for equipment, and that’s not dawning on some,” Zadlo said. He said data centers are even procuring transformers, making it more difficult for a small Texas electric cooperative to secure equipment.
Multiple panelists said ERCOT should move away from planning for spot solutions and examine what transmission will be needed longer term.
“Long-term transmission plans have been shelved, and we need to act on them today,” Zadlo said. He also said someone needs to “challenge the utility mindset” and say, “‘Look, what you built yesterday will not work.’”
“Data centers go up faster than transmission does,” noted Ali Amirali, senior vice president of Lotus Infrastructure Partners.
Amirali said developers should prepare lines today to be high-voltage-ready, with insulation and right-of-way procurement, and find “patient” investors who see the value in having the option to easily size up transmission capacity.
Zadlo said the mindset that HVDC lines are novel and untested should be scrapped.
“It’s not that complicated,” Amirali agreed. He joked that he became a power systems engineer when he was young because he was “lazy,” and he figured the last great technological advancement in the field was transformers. Now he lamented that he was proven right and there haven’t been more advancements.
“We cannot solve today’s problems using yesterday’s technology, and to be honest, we’re still in the ’60s,” he said. He later laughed and added a disclaimer that his views are “mine and mine alone.”
The Lure of Gas
In an earlier panel, CPS Energy Chief Supply Officer Benjamin Ethridge said there are opportunities in the future for zero-emission dispatchable generation. For now, he said gas plants will be the dominant on-demand power source for growing load, and gas infrastructure needs major expansion.
“It’s great to have 2035 or 2040 goals, but we need to be able to weather the next winter storm, the next Uri,” said Michael Enger, Austin Energy’s vice president of energy market operations and resource planning.
Rockland Capital co-Managing Partner Scott Harlan said his company is interested solely in gas-fired facilities to bolster dispatchable resources. However, he said gas supply can be uncertain with intrastate pipeline companies that function as unregulated monopolies without transparency.
All agreed that the Texas Energy Fund, which provides as much as $10 billion in subsidies to fund dispatchable resources, is a welcome development.
Kathleen Smith, president of Aegle Power, said she was “very pleased” to see the subsidized loans approved by Texas voters and is excited to see what projects are submitted next month.
Smith also predicted the Texas Legislature will be relatively quiet on the energy front this session barring any new emergency events.
“I really hope the legislature stands down, maybe does a few tweaks but not anything massive,” Harlan said. He added he’s also concerned about EPA’s power plant emissions rule, expected to be released at the end of the month. He said if gas facilities are required to install carbon capture, it would add years to commercial operation dates.
“I’m hoping they take a more tempered approach. If they’re aggressive and require carbon capture on gas plants, there are going to be lawsuits,” he predicted.
Enger said he hopes for a trouble-free, windy summer. Ethridge said that though Austin is gearing up for another hot summer, his utility has more wind, solar and storage, and he’s “bullish” on ERCOT market dynamics.
Martin Pasqualini, managing director and partner of boutique investment firm CCA Group, said Texas law shouldn’t be hostile to wind and solar project financing.
“I think the renewable market can deal with neutrality but not outright antipathy,” he said.
Pasqualini pointed out Texas no longer is the only market experiencing load growth. It might be more difficult to build in other regions, he said, but it’s possible for renewable developers to withdraw from ERCOT.
Dean Tuel, vice president of Goldman Sachs-backed compressed air storage company Hydrostor, said his company takes advantage of low-cost excess and furnishes grid reliability — effectively capacity, though ERCOT doesn’t have a capacity market.
Tuel said he would like utilities to look further on the horizon for procurement plans. Utilities shouldn’t simply plan on erecting solar panels and short-term energy storage for the next few years but also should procure dispatchable resources for beyond 2030. He said for his company, whose assets have a 50-year lifespan, long-term offtake agreements are key.
OnPeak Power Managing Partner Ingmar Sterzing also said ERCOT no longer has the market cornered on fastest queue processing time.
“The load is coming in so quickly that it could definitely be a challenge,” he said.
Pranay Reminisetty, a lead interconnection engineer with DNV, said constraints on the ERCOT grid are piling up and the state needs new transmission so it doesn’t hamstring new generation.
“You have significant load growth in hours that you’re not really building generation for,” said Luis Lugo, head of ERCOT trading at Mercuria. He said April’s prices already have been high on unseasonably warm weather.
“Fundamentally, we’ve done nothing to build generation for hot weather,” Lugo said.
During a panel concerning corporate sustainability goals, Chris Dorow, regional manager of power and utilities for BASF, said that although some companies recently pushed out sustainability goals, those timelines always were “aspirational” because they were made when technology feasibility wasn’t fleshed out.
Tina Moss, senior director of net zero strategy for LyondellBasell Industries, said her company’s climate goals still boil down to matching the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Alex Beck, co-founder of renewable financial firm GoodLynx, said companies’ sustainability offices often are “kneecapped” and not bestowed the budgets or power to enact their goals. “Corporate America needs to reframe” how it incorporates zero-emission energy and buy tax credits to finance clean energy projects, he said.
New York’s offshore wind portfolio has collapsed, again. Three provisional contracts totaling 4 GW have been cancelled, wiping out a procurement 21 months in the making.
The offshore wind industry and its advocates say they view this as a temporary setback and will continue to push forward.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) announced April 19 the provisional contracts it awarded in its third offshore wind solicitation to Attentive Energy One, Community Offshore Wind and Excelsior Wind would not proceed.
All four contracts awarded in New York’s first and second solicitations — Beacon Wind, Empire Wind 1 and 2, and Sunrise Wind — also have been cancelled or are being cancelled.
Those four deals dated to 2019 and 2021. They were sunk by massive cost increases and supply chain constraints that developed after the terms were locked in, and by New York’s refusal in October 2023 to negotiate new terms on the grounds that doing so would undercut the competitive market. (See NY Rejects Inflation Adjustment for Renewable Projects.)
By contrast, the collapse of the third solicitation’s three provisional contracts is blamed on technical changes — notably, in the nameplate capacity of the turbines specified for the projects.
Some of the overarching problems that have dogged New York’s attempt to build an offshore wind industry have been addressed: The domestic supply chain and physical infrastructure needed to build offshore wind farms are slowly taking shape, and the provisional contracts in New York’s third and fourth solicitations carry much higher compensation for developers.
Given this, the offshore wind industry is putting the best face on this latest cancellation in a state that is one of the strongest champions of offshore wind development.
Will Brunelle, spokesperson for Community, said: “We look forward to evaluating upcoming solicitations in New York and to working with the state as it pursues its clean energy goals. As we move forward, a strong, local supply chain consisting of reliable partners will be vital to the success of the New York offshore wind industry.”
Andrew Doba, spokesperson for Excelsior developer Vineyard Offshore, said: “While this latest development is unfortunate, Vineyard Offshore looks forward to working with the [Gov. Kathy] Hochul administration and NYSERDA to advance the next solicitation process in New York. Together, we can deliver critical carbon reduction benefits, improve public health, and bring significant local investments and job creation to the Empire State.”
Missing Pieces
New York’s offshore wind contracts entail billions of dollars spread across a small army of contractors, subcontractors and suppliers, with baked-in ancillary goals such as workforce and supply chain development, environmental justice, and community benefits.
In its April 19 announcement, NYSERDA indicated that too many pieces of the puzzle began to change for the contract awardees and their partners to finalize the agreements.
NYSERDA singled out as a key factor the decision by GE Vernova to halt development of an 18-MW variant of its Haliade-X turbine.
Excelsior and Community expressed displeasure with GE Vernova.
“NYSERDA’s decision is warranted given GE Vernova’s failure to follow through on their commitment to deliver an 18-MW machine,” Doba said.
“Our commitment to offshore wind in the region is unchanged,” Brunelle said. “While we are disappointed that the wind turbine manufacturer was unable to fulfill its commitments and enable our provisional contract award to move forward, we believe in the fundamentals of the U.S. offshore wind market.”
GE Vernova will see a ripple effect from the contract cancellations: New York had committed to $300 million in subsidies for the company and subsidiary LM Wind Power to build two factories — one for offshore wind turbine nacelles, one for blades — along the Hudson River near Albany. That money instead will support offshore wind supply chain development in future solicitations, NYSERDA said.
Bigger Not Always Better
GE Vernova’s website indicates the Haliade-X is rated at 12-14.7 MW.
NYSERDA indicated the company was proposing to supply 15.5- to 16.5-MW variants for the New York projects that held provisional contracts, rather than the 18-MW version originally specified.
GE Vernova did not return a request for clarification for this story.
At GE’s 2023 Investor Day event, before the spinoff of General Electric’s power businesses as GE Vernova, an executive said the company was getting good industry feedback on a potential 17- to 18-MW variant of the Haliade-X.
A year later, the word “offshore” appears 42 times in a transcript of GE Vernova’s 2024 Investor Day conference call, often in the context of reversing its offshore wind business’ financial performance. At one point, an executive says the 14-GW Haliade-X is the workhorse that “positions us well to win.”
But there are zero references to a larger Haliade-X.
Shifting a 1,400-MW project from 18-MW to 16-MW turbines could boost its cost noticeably, requiring 13% more turbines and foundations and more time onsite for installation vessels that are exorbitantly expensive to charter.
The push for bigger turbines has been underway for years. The dozen turbines powering the nation’s first commercial offshore wind farm — New York’s South Fork Wind, completed last month — are rated at just 11 MW.
More power per tower is a lucrative prospect for developers but can carry significant hidden costs:
Manufacturers planning ever-larger models can get locked into an unending R&D cycle, creating quality-control risks; manufacturing facilities and installation equipment designed for a particular size of tower and blade may not be able to handle larger equipment; investing hundreds of millions of dollars for larger equipment comes with the risk that it, too, soon will become obsolete as customers clamor for even larger models; repairs are more difficult and costly to perform on the largest machines. (See Big Offshore Wind Plans Face Multiple Major Obstacles.)
Construction work nears completion earlier this year on South Fork Wind. | South Fork Wind
Positive Developments
Despite this latest development, there are positive signs in New York’s offshore wind sector:
Empire and Sunrise won provisional contract awards in February after they rebid into the fourth solicitation, and they both are close to construction-ready after years in development. (See Sunrise Wind, Empire Wind Tapped for new OSW Contracts.)
Community Offshore Wind 2 was waitlisted in the fourth solicitation — neither approved nor rejected as the state focused on the two mature projects.
State leadership remains firmly committed in word and deed to developing offshore wind as a source of clean energy and economic activity.
Equinor began work in early April on an offshore wind operations terminal in Brooklyn.
A wind tower factory originally planned for the Port of Albany has been cancelled due to delays and cost overruns, but Equinor and the port are pushing ahead with site preparation for an as-yet undetermined offshore wind manufacturing facility.
The Albany project is a microcosm of offshore wind development in New York, encountering multiple setbacks and pushing through them.
Port of Albany CEO Richard Henrick told NetZero Insider via email:
“The project is proceeding in a phased-approach to pad-ready status, to best position progress in preparation for offshore wind manufacturing on the Hudson River. This site is fully permitted and the most advanced site suitable for offshore wind manufacturing in the Northeast U.S. We are confident that it will be instrumental in fulfilling a domestic offshore wind supply chain in the United States.”
Latest Setback
The April 19 announcement was the second major collapse of New York’s offshore wind pipeline in six months. After the first, Gov. Hochul (D) and NYSERDA scrambled to get renewable energy development back on track, both offshore and on land.
This effort continues and the next steps will be announced soon, NYSERDA said April 19: “Amidst the evolving challenges faced by the offshore wind industry, NYSERDA is continuing to take proactive measures to respond to and address these issues head-on.”
Fred Zalcman, director of The New York Offshore Wind Alliance, said:
“We are disappointed with today’s news, but it is not surprising given GE’s recent reversal of its plans to make the new 18 MW wind turbines. That decision led to additional permitting challenges and costs for these planned New York offshore wind projects.
“This proves it is not easy to build an entirely new U.S.-based heavy industry, but we are confident that projects will continue to be planned, developed, permitted, and built off the shores of New York. Private industry remains committed to working with NYSERDA and other government partners to reassert New York’s leadership in the offshore wind space.
“There may be more setbacks in the future, but they will be far outpaced by the number of milestones for this industry.”
National trade group Oceantic Network directly blamed GE Vernova for the development.
CEO Liz Burdock said: “We are confident New York’s leadership will take the action necessary to maintain their market’s trajectory. The state has already shown its ability and willingness to move swiftly to secure projects on their timelines, and we fully expect the state will continue taking bold action in service of their 9 GW deployment goal.
“The U.S. market has been steadily building momentum, and while today’s announcement is disappointing, it is not unexpected and will not impact the market’s overall fundamentals.”
Advanced Energy United said:
“While project delay announcements aren’t welcome in any industry, and the offshore wind industry is no different, we view this as a minor detour on New York’s path toward a vibrant offshore wind energy future.
“When a building construction project doesn’t move forward, we don’t treat it as an indictment of the building construction industry, and it should be the same for offshore wind. This type of setback is very typical for construction projects of this size, particularly with the lasting impacts the pandemic had on supply chains, financing, and leasing.”
The return to demand growth around the country has the industry considering how to meet it, with many utilities and states considering new natural gas-fired units, while others are trying to avoid growing carbon emissions while maintaining reliability.
The Department of Energy on April 17 released a report on “The Future of Resource Adequacy,” which says firms investing in natural gas resources should make them able to be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage, or with the ability to burn clean hydrogen. (See related story, DOE Urges Utilities to Embrace ‘Holistic’ Reliability Solutions.)
“Building new natural gas plants without a strategy to address emissions risks infrastructure lock-in and stranded assets,” the report said. “To help address these concerns, new gas capacity should be capable of achieving and supporting clean electricity systems. For example, gas generators should be designed to operate flexibly and at lower capacity factors to effectively support systems with increasing amounts of variable wind and solar generation.”
Still, many utilities are trying to build new natural gas plants, with the Georgia Public Service Commission on April 16 approving Georgia Power’s request to add three new dual-fueled combustion turbine units at an existing generation site between integrated resource plans because of unexpected load growth in its territory. The commission also authorized the utility to invest in new grid-scale batteries.
The new capacity was needed because Georgia Power found its 2030/31 winter demand projections had gone up by 5,900 MW since it issued its 2022 IRP, according to a brief the utility filed early this month with the PUC. The firm found it would need new capacity by winter 2025/26.
“Given the continued increase, progress and pace of committed customer load, the commission should have an extremely high degree of confidence in the forecast and should approve the company’s load forecast as filed and agreed to in the stipulation,” the utility said.
Overhanging the regulatory cases around new natural gas plants are EPA’s looming rules under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, which are expected to restrict fossil fuel emissions in the future. Ultimately, the rule’s fate depends on the presidential election, as similar rules were overturned the last time Donald Trump was in the White House.
The Southeast in particular has been a hot spot for new demand from Georgia up to Data Center Alley in Northern Virginia, Luis Martinez, the Natural Resources Defense Council’s lead for climate and energy in the region, said in an interview.
Dominion Energy has proposed building a major new natural gas plant in Chesterfield, Va., just south of Richmond.
“The troubling trend is the rush to build gas to meet it, which is what we’re hoping won’t come to fruition … because it will derail our short-term and long-term, I’d say, climate emission-reduction goals,” Martinez said.
Moving to more and more natural gas in the region also makes it more prone to sudden price spikes because of the commodity’s volatile market, he added. North Carolina’s Duke Energy has expanded its gas fleet in recent years, and customers have been pinched by spiking prices from recent winter storms and generally higher costs in 2022, which now are being felt on their power bills, Martinez said.
One reason the Southeast is seeing a flood of new natural gas plant proposals is that it relies on traditional regulation, meaning that as long as regulators approve the plant, it will get built.
“This risk of potentially having this new gas generation become a stranded asset, or not cost competitive, which you could see in other regions, is not present,” Martinez said. “Once they’re approved in the Southeast, then it’ll be on ratepayers to pay for that whole thing, even if in 10 years these things are no longer useful because they have to add carbon capture and storage or they have to transition them to hydrogen, as the EPA 111 rule would require.”
NRDC wants regulators around the region to evaluate all of the options they have to address the demand and pick the least-regrets ones, such as energy efficiency, before natural gas, he added.
California has long used the “loading order,” where its Public Utilities Commission prioritizes efficiency and clean energy and places expanding natural gas capacity as a last resort to maintain reliability. While the different politics of the region mean that will never be a formal policy, it could serve as rule of thumb, Jackson Morris, NRDC’s director of state power sector policy, said in an interview.
“There [is] tons of untapped energy efficiency on the system that needs to get tripled or quadrupled in scale. That’s No. 1,” Morris said. “Then you go to both utility-scale and distributed renewables projects. You also invest heavily in transmission and distribution investments, including both on existing reconducting efforts and things like that, as well as new lines and distribution infrastructure to maximize the capacity to move power around.”
Natural gas should be the last resort to solve resource adequacy issues, he said. And NRDC would prefer utilities build CTs at this time because even though on a unit basis they are less efficient than combined cycle, they run much less often.
Other states around the country are dealing with similar issues. Harvard Law School’s Electricity Law Initiative hosted a webinar this month with state regulators to discuss how to meet higher demand while staying on course for cutting emissions.
“I think the most important thing that we can do as states is to help to get the incentives right to balance the reliability and sustainability and clean energy goals that we’ve got,” Illinois Commerce Commission Chair Doug Scott said.
A big part of Illinois’ strategy is keeping its nuclear plants open. It pays them when natural gas is cheap, but customers actually received rebates in 2022 when the commodity’s price spiked, Scott noted. As far as new capacity, Illinois is working to expand renewables.
Minnesota Public Utilities Commission Vice Chair Joseph Sullivan noted the industry has dealt with even higher rates of demand growth in the past, such as when consumers adopted air conditioning en masse and demand grew from 7 to 9% every year.
“If you put on a data center, that’s 10% of the entire system; it’s a lot, and we’ve got to deal with that,” Sullivan said. “But if we plan for it, and we use the processes that we have, I think we’re going to get through it.”
The Organization of MISO States has named Tricia DeBleeckere, current MISO director of state policy and strategy, as its next executive director.
Before her two years at MISO, DeBleeckere spent nearly 14 years at the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, serving as a commission adviser and analyst and planning director focused on transmission and distributed energy resources integration. While with the commission, she was active in OMS.
“We are very excited to have Tricia return to the OMS team; she brings a wealth of industry expertise to OMS’ work and is already a known asset for many MISO states. Her previous experience working for a state commission, existing relationships with OMS, and her most recent experience at MISO will be an incredible resource for our members,” OMS President and Iowa Utilities Board Member Joshua Byrnes said in an April 19 news release. “Tricia brings a deep understanding of how to navigate complex regulatory and stakeholder processes, and her experience, knowledge and thoughtfulness will serve OMS and state commissions well.”
DeBleeckere holds a Bachelor of Science from the University of Minnesota and is finishing a Master of Business Administration from the University of Texas Permian Basin. Her new role becomes effective May 8.
“I am truly excited to be working with the OMS team again to ensure we are proceeding through the energy transition in the most cost-effective, reliable and efficient way possible. There are many challenges currently before OMS, state commissions and MISO — with many more to come in the years ahead,” DeBleeckere said in a statement.
DeBleeckere, who is based in Minneapolis, will lead the Madison, Wis.-based OMS remotely.
At an April 11 OMS board meeting, Byrnes reported that OMS leadership interviewed four candidates in early April. Michigan Public Service Commission Chair Dan Scripps said OMS was faced with a difficult choice among excellent candidates.
In March, MISO CEO John Bear said Hawkins was leaving a “hole” in OMS leadership but said he was cheered that MISO still can work with him as a Wisconsin Public Service commissioner.
Bear also thanked Minnesota Public Service Commissioner Joseph Sullivan and Byrnes for stepping up to share former OMS President and Wisconsin Public Service Commissioner Tyler Huebner’s duties after he was abruptly fired by the state’s GOP-controlled Senate. (See Wisconsin Senate Votes to Fire Commissioner Huebner 4 Years into Job.)
“It’s a critical, critical partnership with OMS,” Bear said.
Byrnes said Huebner’s exit was “unfortunate” and that he was grateful to learn from him while he had the chance.
Representatives from two groups that blocked past efforts to “regionalize” CAISO predict success for an upcoming campaign to change California law to allow the ISO to participate in the kind of independent RTO envisioned by the West-Wide Governance Pathways Initiative.
The reps from labor and California’s publicly owned utilities shared their views April 19 at a virtual meeting of the initiative’s Launch Committee. The committee discussed its recent straw proposal for a “stepwise” approach to transitioning CAISO’s state-run governance to an independent body. (See Western RTO Group Floats Independence Plan for EDAM, WEIM.)
“Frankly, I wouldn’t be spending this much time if I thought this was going to crash and burn,” committee member Marc Joseph, an attorney who represents the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), said during the meeting.
Step 1 of the straw proposal entails making the Governing Body of CAISO’s Western Energy Imbalance Market and Extended Day-Ahead Market as independent as possible “within the current CAISO structure in a way that presents little or no” risk to prompting challenges under California law.
Step 2 looks to fulfill the Pathways Initiative’s “primary goal” by “creating a durable governance structure with a fully independent board that has sole authority to determine the market rules for EDAM and WEIM.” A key action is creating a new “regional organization” (RO) separate from CAISO that would become successor to the WEIM/EDAM Governing Body.
That step would require changes to California law, which Joseph is confident will happen next time around.
That confidence stems in part from the fact that the powerful constituency he represents won’t oppose the bill, something Joseph shared in an interview with RTO Insider in January. (See Former Opponents Shift Position on CAISO ‘Regionalization’.)
In the interview, he explained the IBEW opposed the three previous legislative efforts to convert CAISO into a multistate entity because the plans, as proposed, would have expanded the boundaries of the ISO’s balancing authority area. Under California law, that could’ve meant the portion of projects that California’s renewable portfolio standard required to be interconnected directly to the ISO’s BAA could be built outside the state, reducing job opportunities for members.
But the Pathways Initiative plan would allow the ISO to preserve its BAA while still integrating more closely with the rest of the West.
Still, skeptics have continued to express doubts the initiative will produce the kind of California legislation needed to transform the ISO’s governance.
“So many people outside of California asked me, ‘So what’s different this time?’ Or more pointedly they ask, ‘Why should we expect any different result this time?’” Joseph said during the call.
He pointed to the makeup of the effort’s Launch Committee. In addition to Joseph, it includes public power representatives Jim Shetler, general manager of the Balancing Authority of Northern California (BANC), and Randy Howard, GM of the Northern California Power Agency (NCPA) — all of whom are “spending lots and lots of time and effort to craft a proposal that will succeed.”
A “more substantive” reason for Joseph’s confidence is that he sees the Pathways proposal as being “completely and fundamentally different” from past proposals in both “structure and detail.”
Prior proposals would have replaced CAISO’s Board of Governors with an independent body “not connected in any way to the state of California,” he said, providing “absolutely no guarantees” California consumers or policies would be protected.
In contrast, “we will know the details” about the outcome of the Pathways plan, Joseph continued.
“CAISO would remain intact, the CAISO balancing authority area would remain intact, the incentives to create jobs in California would remain intact,” he said. “And the thing that changes is the governance just of the market functions now currently housed within … CAISO, with the door left open for more incremental changes in the future.”
For those reasons, Joseph expects any future bill to alter the ISO’s governance will look much different from the past failed bills.
“Obviously, I can’t speak for the California legislature, but given the fundamental differences in both structure and detail [of Pathways], and the demonstrated benefits for California consumers and for workers … I think there’s every reason to think that the outcome can be different,” he said.
Legislative Approach
NCPA’s Howard said California’s publicly owned utilities opposed previous regionalization efforts for many of the same reasons laid out by Joseph. They’ve altered their stance in part due to their success in participating in CAISO’s Western Energy Imbalance Market, and they want to build on that.
“We like what we see in the [EDAM], but we know overall market conditions have changed dramatically throughout the West in the last couple of years, and we see that change continuing,” Howard said. “And so the do-nothing strategy, or staying as we are today, doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
Howard said the framework in the Pathways proposal resolves many of the issues the public had with earlier attempts to change CAISO governance.
He noted that while the Launch Committee won’t directly lobby California lawmakers, some of its members already are starting to engage with the legislature in their organizational capacities with the aim of moving a bill through the 2025 session.
“There’s already been an effort to get out and have some informational sessions with some key legislative staff [and] walk through what we’ve been working on [and explain] why it is different” from past efforts, Howard said, adding that he saw some of those staff listening in on the call.
Pathways backers will begin meeting with legislators in the fall to discuss the type of legislation needed and “hopefully work on draft language,” Howard said, with the expectation of having a bill submitted into either the California Assembly or Senate at the start of the next session in January.
“I agree with Mark. With the framework that’s here and that we’re proposing, I don’t see … difficulty … in moving this forward. But again, I can’t speak for [legislators]; they will have that opportunity to vote,” he said.
Funding Update
Launch Committee co-Chair Kathleen Staks, executive director of Western Freedom, updated meeting participants on the status of the Pathways Initiative’s financial status after the U.S. Department of Education rejected its January application for $800,000 in grants. (See Pathways Initiative Rejected for $800K in DOE Funding.)
Staks said DOE declined to select the project because the agency lacked details about the scope of the activities to be funded by the grants, which would have consisted of $400,000 annually for two years.
“Back in January, we were still very early in our work, and it was difficult to provide details at that point about the direction and the ultimate structure that we’re still frankly working to develop with input from stakeholders,” she said.
The funding assumptions for Phase 1 of Pathways, expected to conclude this month, did not include the DOE money.
Staks said DOE is putting out another round of funding for wholesale electricity market studies and engagements this spring and the Launch Committee “is evaluating potential proposals for that funding opportunity and how beneficial those funds would actually be.”
“We’re also pursuing other funding opportunities, and we’ll continue to provide information about the budget and the various tasks that we need to be able to fund and how much money and where that money is coming from,” she said.
State regulators voted 3-2 on April 19 to approve Entergy Louisiana’s hotly debated $1.9 billion grid-hardening proposal to be funded by ratepayers, four days after the utility submitted it.
The utility filed the first phase of its Entergy Future Ready Resilience Plan with the Louisiana Public Service Commission on April 15 and requested fast-tracked approval on April 19 during the commission’s Business and Executive Session (U-36625). The commission issued a supplemental agenda to its meeting to consider Entergy’s ask.
The quick turnaround elicited criticism from Commissioner Davante Lewis, who expressed concerns that the final draft of the plan wasn’t shared earlier with the public and commission staff.
“Like all Louisianans, I would love to see the kind of grid improvements that get us back on track faster after storms, but I need to be certain I am equipped to represent the public, who have no other choice but to buy their power from these companies from month to month,” Lewis wrote in a press release prior to the meeting. “Transparent, deliberative decision-making is already difficult to achieve when specifics of this proposal are deemed proprietary and confidential to Entergy’s outside contractors.”
Lewis also said “substantial details” of the plan “are obscured by contractor confidentiality agreements.”
“The public deserves to know more and have the chance to be heard in decisions of this magnitude,” he wrote.
An illegible list of projects contained in Entergy Louisiana’s grid-hardening plan | Entergy Louisiana
The 17 pages of potential transmission and distribution system projects listed in Entergy’s filing are nearly illegible (see picture) and provide few specifics on the projects.
Commissioner Foster Campbell joined Lewis in opposition. He said he could not vote in favor of the plan because it assigns the same costs to ratepayers over five years regardless of where they live, and the bulk of storm damages occur in the southern part of the state. He noted his district includes the “poorest place in America.”
“I can’t in good conscience vote to give them a higher utility bill when I don’t think they get a fair share,” Campbell said.
Entergy Louisiana insists the resilience plan has not been rushed through the regulatory process and was in the works at the PSC for about a year and a half. Spokesperson Brandon Scardigli said the utility first filed its resilience application in December 2022.
“The record in that proceeding is complete, as the company and intervenors have filed several rounds of testimony and discovery throughout those 16 months, engaging stakeholders and responding to questions and concerns,” Scardigli said in an email to RTO Insider.
He pointed out that the commission’s approval could have Entergy getting a jump on improvements before the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off.
“June 1 marks the beginning of hurricane season — in just 45 days. Now is the time to take the necessary steps to harden Louisiana’s electric grid, which will benefit residents and businesses by reducing the cost of future restoration and shortening the duration of outages following storms, allowing Louisiana to get back to normal faster,” he wrote.
Entergy did not address RTO Insider’s request to elaborate on which projects are in the proposal or how they might be prioritized. Scardigli said the plan includes “thousands of projects aimed at reinforcing critical structures on both the transmission and distribution systems.”
Prior to the vote, Lewis said taking up Entergy’s proposal could create a bad precedent in which utilities don’t have to “make good faith efforts” to negotiate with staff or address the public’s concerns. He said he received more than 90 emails in a single day from intervenors and constituents asking for more time to understand the proposal.
He said he saw no reason to address Entergy’s plan “this month [or] this week.” In fact, Lewis said the only reason he could fathom Entergy needing its plan addressed so soon is so it could deliver its shareholders some “good news” during an April 23 earnings call.
Campbell made a failed motion to defer Entergy’s application for a month; only Lewis joined him in the vote. Commissioner Eric Skrmetta advanced Entergy’s plan for consideration. Commissioners Craig Greene and Mike Francis voted with Skrmetta.
Skrmetta said he spent “an enormous amount of time” talking with Entergy in recent weeks about the plan, which he said embodies the phrase “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”
He emphasized that Entergy’s plan includes a pole performance metric that stipulates if 150 or more poles fail in a storm they were designed to withstand, a portion of the funds spent on them is returned to ratepayers. He called it “a de facto insurance policy” and said the plan is in the best interest of the company and ratepayers.
Public Criticism
Multiple advocacy groups spoke at the meeting to express disappointment at the hasty nature of the request and asked the commission to delay acting on the application.
Lake Charles resident James Hyatt said commissioners are “supposed to be looking out for ratepayers and not for shareholder value.” He pointed out that ratepayers still are paying for past storm damage while Entergy’s profits increase.
Erin Hansen, representing citizen nonprofit Together Louisiana, said decisions that are made “rushed, under the cover of darkness, tend to represent special interests.”
“We’re here, and we feel a little taken — put upon, if you will — because it looks like there’s a giant check that’s been written and the PSC is about to sign it, but that check is linked to our bank account,” Hansen said.
She said Louisianans want reliability improvements, but Entergy needs to allow time for public understanding. She added that a clear schedule, public input, transparency and examination are not “irritating delays to be pushed through.”
“They are an essential part of your responsibility to your ratepayers,” she said.
Logan Burke, executive director of the Alliance for Affordable Energy, said that while her organization supports more investments in reliability, “we expected more process.”
“Louisianans expect this body, which makes decisions worth billions of dollars, to make them clear-eyed based on facts and in a way that is accessible to the ratepayers who will be impacted. The public’s trust depends on that,” Burke said.
Burke expressed concern that the plan’s intent is not resilience but a “single-minded investment in Entergy’s preferred solutions.”
Entergy Defends
Larry Hand, Entergy Louisiana’s acting vice president of regulatory and public affairs, said the utility already engaged extensively with parties to the docket to craft the grid-hardening plan. He said Louisiana PSC staff “reigned in” Entergy’s original plan.
“I wouldn’t characterize this as, ‘no one has supported this; no one agrees to it,’” Hand said. He added that the plan “is not something that fell out of the sky and should surprise intervenors.”
Hand also stressed that the plan needed expedited treatment before hurricane season but said “he couldn’t say” whether construction on any projects would begin prior to the impending storm season. He said the first projects likely would be of assistance during the 2025 hurricane season.
Hand said the average resident will see a peak $7.19/month increase by 2029, which gradually would decrease with depreciation.
Energy Louisiana CEO Phillip May said the plan would facilitate new growth and economic progress in the state.
“While we can’t say with certainty that any project will be started before June 1, what we can say is: The state has an enormous opportunity of economic development, and those folks who are deciding whether or not to invest in the state of Louisiana … want to see a sign that their concerns are taken seriously [that] we’re going to build a grid that gives them confidence to make those investments,” May said.
NEW YORK — Global investment in the energy transition grew 17% to more than $1.7 trillion in 2023 — a new high, BloombergNEF CEO Jon Moore told a standing-room-only audience at the opening session of the BNEF Summit on April 16.
Unfortunately, those topline figures aren’t “where we need to be,” Moore said.
“We need to be two-and-a-half times that number, so we need to be investing more on an annual basis than we are today, and that goes up to $6.5 [trillion] and $7.5 trillion in the subsequent decades,” the 2030s and 2040s, respectively, he said. “So, we really do need big numbers here.”
Finding new ways to get more investors to put more of their money into clean energy technologies — especially the startups providing new solutions to critical challenges — was a major focus of the two-day BNEF Summit. Moore’s opening remarks provided a high-level perspective on the transition, which, at present, is moving both fast and slow, he said.
Following Moore, David Crane, under secretary for infrastructure at the Department of Energy, drilled down into how looming predictions for demand growth could affect the existing momentum and financing of the transition.
Among sectors moving fast, Moore noted the lion’s share of new investment is streaming toward renewable energy, electric transportation and power grids, a category that has taken off in the past four years. Global investment in passenger electric vehicles (EVs) was up 36% in 2023, investment in energy storage jumped 77%, and investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) nearly doubled, Moore said.
Europe — specifically the Netherlands — is the main driver in CCS, with its Porthos project to store carbon dioxide emissions from oil and gas plants in depleted gas wells more than 1.8 miles down in the North Sea. Moore also zeroed in on global investments in solar, where he said “there is now enough [projected] solar capacity to support us where we need to be at net zero at 2030. … So we actually don’t need any more,” though installations will continue at a slower pace.
Investments in battery factories are also running ahead of projected demand, though not to the same extent as solar, he said.
But Moore also cautioned that exponential increases in global investment will be needed for some technologies. While investment in renewables, storage, the grid and EVs will need to increase two to three times by 2030, investment in hydrogen must jump sixfold, nuclear almost ninefold and CCS a whopping 45-fold.
Overall, he said, investment in clean energy supply is close to but has yet to surpass fossil fuel investments. In 2023, clean power supplies drew in $1,023 billion versus $1,098 billion for fossil fuels.
Looking at the global stock taking at the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties in the United Arab Emirates last year, BNEF is ranking climate progress overall at 3.8 out of 10, Moore said.
“If you added up all the [nationally determined contributions] and everyone achieved what they said they wanted to achieve by 2030, we would reduce CO2emissions by 5.3%,” he said, well below what will be needed to limit climate change to the 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election in November — and its impact on U.S. energy and climate policies — could be multiplied by upcoming elections in other countries, Moore said. India’s seven-phase parliamentary elections kick off on April 19 and continue through June 1.
Countries representing “two-thirds of global GDP” will have elections this year, he said.
‘Bursting at the Seams’
In the U.S., unprecedented federal investments in clean energy provided by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act have slammed into concerns about unprecedented demand growth, Crane said in an on-stage conversation with Thomas Rowlands-Rees, BNEF head of North America research.
“Our world is now bursting at the seams,” Crane said. From 2012 to 2022, demand growth was mostly flat and steady at about 0.5% per year, he said, but now “people are talking about 5 or 6% per year. … In the energy world, those are big numbers.”
The result is that “we’re solving for two different demand problems simultaneously,” Crane said: incremental demand growth from electrification of buildings and transportation, and the “big chunks” of new demand from data centers.
“With this data center thing, and the high-tech companies that are driving that, we need them to become energy companies because they have so many ways they could work with us,” he said.
Many of the projects Crane oversees at DOE, such as the hydrogen and carbon capture hubs, were intended to get first-of-a-kind projects online in the 2020s, to be followed by commercialization and scaling to help reach President Joe Biden’s goal of a decarbonized grid by 2035, he said.
BNEF projects clean energy investments will have to increase close to threefold by 2030 to get to net zero by 2050. | BloombergNEF
Such technologies are “cheaper [and] faster, and we can get somewhere between 20 and 100 GW more capacity on [an existing] system,” he said.
Crane sees a twofold challenge for wide deployment of grid-enhancing technologies: a lack of easily identifiable incumbents in the sector and the need for creative financing.
A decade ago, he said, “I’m looking at something like electric vehicle charging, and there are at least three big incumbent stakeholder groups” — oil companies, utilities and automakers,
“But suddenly, [with] these things like reconductoring, virtual power plants in particular, it’s harder to see who are the natural incumbents that should want to lean into that space, and so it leaves an opening for the more entrepreneurial companies, and we need to support those companies,” he said.
For creative financing, Crane called on the clean energy professionals at the conference to help develop the new approaches to investment that will be needed to get these technologies widely deployed. Upgrading transmission systems usually occurs within “an integrated utility system, so standalone financing of these things is an area for people in this room to pioneer. This is a business opportunity … and we need it.”
“The key partner at the table in this is the financial community that can find ways to get these things done,” he said.
The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities on April 17 approved eight projects with solar capacity totaling 310 MW in its second solicitation for grid-scale projects, nine months after declining to support any bids in the first solicitation due to cost.
The board received 14 proposals in response to its solicitation for 300 MW through the state’s Competitive Solar Incentive (CSI) program. The capacity selected includes 92 MW of storage that was paired with two of the projects. Five of the eight projects are for “basic grid supply” while the other three will be on contaminated sites and landfills. The BPU did not approve any projects in the “grid supply on the built environment” category, which includes rooftops, or the category for net metered residential projects larger than 5 MW.
Four of the approved projects have a capacity of more than 50 MW, and the remainder are between 2.7 and 13 MW. The largest, the 95-MW Harmony Plains Solar, will be in Harmony Township in Western New Jersey and cover 383 acres.
BPU President Christine Guhl-Sadovy called the board’s decision “very exciting” in its ability to “bring solar through a competitive process, as well as this first energy storage project.”
“It was terrific result,” said Fred DeSanti, executive director of the New Jersey Solar Energy Coalition. After the first solicitation failed in July, DeSanti expressed skepticism that developers would be able to submit low enough bids for the agency. “The number of projects, the size of the projects; [we’re] very happy.”
He said he was especially surprised with the board’s decision to award more than the target combined capacity.
“This is a very positive signal for the solar community in New Jersey,” he said. “It shows the state is still very dedicated to moving forward and in a big way.”
Ed Potosnak, executive director of the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters, said the solicitation showed the state’s “ongoing commitment for a 100% clean energy future.”
The CSI program is seen by officials as a key element in reaching the state’s solar capacity goals of 12.2 GW of solar energy by 2030 and 17.2 GW by 2035. Those are well above the nearly 4.8 GW installed in the state as of Feb. 29, of which 815 MW — or less than 2% — is grid-scale, according to BPU figures.
The BPU designed the CSI program to set incentive levels for grid-supply projects — those selling into the wholesale markets — through market forces. Developers bid the lowest level of Solar Renewable Energy Certificates they would need to complete the project, and the BPU backs projects based on the highest bids.
In declining to award bids in the first solicitation, BPU officials said they exceeded their agency’s confidential price caps. They suggested at the time that the pricey submissions were because of the high level of economic and regulatory uncertainty nationwide, as well as higher-than-historic costs, which all impacted the development of larger-scale solar. (See NJ Rejects Solar Bids as Too Expensive.)
Lyle Rawlings, president of Mid-Atlantic Solar & Storage Industries Association, said the solicitation’s outcome is “good for the sector.” He said it is difficult to know whether developers submitted less expensive bids in the second solicitation or the BPU loosened its standards because the agency does not reveal what it considers acceptable.
“There’s no data to tell us and no way to find out definitively whether they raised the cap, or whether the developers sharpened their pencils and lowered the prices,” he said. “If I were to guess I would say a little of both. I suspect that the BPU adopted a more reasonable price cap, and the development community noted that they all lost last time.”
Bolstered by a nearly $5 million war chest, supporters of Washington’s cap-and-invest system have begun efforts to defeat a campaign that seeks to scrap the carbon allowance program through a referendum this fall.
Conservative group Let’s Go Washington placed Initiative 2117 on the November ballot to call on voters to repeal the program, which the state’s Department of Ecology implemented last year as part of the Climate Commitment Act. The effort comes as Washington moves to link the program with the larger and well-established cap-and-trade program shared by California and Quebec. (See Calif., Quebec, Wash. to Explore Linking Carbon Markets.)
Cap-and-invest supporters in February formed the No 2117coalition, which has collected about $4.7 million and spent around $365,000, according to the Washington Public Disclosure Commission (PDC).
Big donors include Microsoft founder Bill Gates and software developer Chris Stolte, who each contributed $1 million, as well as husband-and-wife software developers Craig McKibben and Sarah Merner, who together gave $1 million.
In a press release April 17, the coalition said pending donations would increase the total to about $11 million, with pledges from Amazon, Microsoft and former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and his wife, Connie Ballmer.
“We’re going to make sure we have the resources needed to defeat 2117,” No 2117 spokesman Mark Prentice told NetZero Insider.
The membership of No 2117 is dominated by environmental and liberal political organizations, but also includes the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, BP America and the Certified Electrical Workers of Washington union.
During its signature-gathering phase last year, Let’s Go Washington raised $7.37 million and spent $7.66 million, according to the PDC. The group has raised $765,488 and has spent $464,970 so far this year, and has $256,873 in debts.
Redmond hedge fund manager Brian Heywood provided roughly $5 million of the group’s 2023 donations to get I-2117 on November’s ballot.
“I’m not putting any more money into it,” Heywood told NetZero Insider. That $5 million also contributed to placing two other Let’s Go Washington initiatives on the November ballots: one that would repeal the state’s fledging capital gains tax and another that would allow residents to opt out of a tax that funds a state program to provide for long-term health care.
Cap-and-invest supporters “are going to have to raise $15 million to convince people of something that is not true. [The program] is not designed to remove climate change; it is designed to be a tax,” Heywood said.
Both sides said they expect many small contributors to donate to their campaigns.
“Other side is a bunch of big money. … They’re going to make me the villain. … This is the American Revolution army versus the well-financed British army,” Heywood said.
‘Catastrophic Blow’
Meanwhile, the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) — which represents four of Washington’s oil refineries, as well as others along the West Coast — plans to sit out the balloting.
“We do not oppose the [Climate Commitment Act] and believe the cap-and-trade program should be fixed rather than repealed. We are not involved in the campaign,” WSPA spokesman Kevin Slagle said in an email.
Washington’s fifth oil refinery is owned by No 2117 coalition member BP America.
Let’s Go Washington’s repeal campaign plans revolve around the rise in Washington’s gasoline prices, while No 2117’s efforts will stress the fallout for Washingtonians if the cap-and-invest program is revoked.
“We’re going to talk about the costs of what [cap-and-invest opponents] are imposing,” Prentice said.
“I-2117 would deal a catastrophic blow to efforts to reduce carbon and health-harming air pollution, and it would have a devastating impact on our state budget,” David Mendoza, director public advocacy and engagement at The Nature Conservancy in Washington, said in No 2117’s April 18 news release. “I-2117 would take away billions of dollars for needed investments in renewable energy, clean air and water, healthy communities, healthy forests and economic support for those most impacted by the climate crisis. That’s why a broad coalition of organizations and community leaders from across our state has come together to mobilize communities in Washington to defeat I-2117.”
Since being implemented last year, Washington’s cap-and-invest program has raised almost $2.1 billion. The state’s Legislature recently appropriated $816 million in cap-and-invest money to support programs during the fiscal year running from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025.
That spending is split between the Legislature’s transportation and capital budgets.
The transportation portion includes building hybrid electric-diesel ferries, buying electric school and transit buses, installing charging stations, bolstering Washington’s fledgling hydrogen industry, purchasing electric vehicles for several state and local agencies, and designing a hydrofoil for the Kitsap Transit system, plus several road, bridge and small boat projects.
The capital budget portion includes grants or direct appropriations for energy conservation at the state’s universities, forest land purchases, restoring landscapes destroyed by wildfires, restoring coastlines, salmon recovery, sewage treatment and EV chargers. It also covers energy conservation measures at juvenile detention facilities, decarbonization projects, energy conservation in other buildings, and modernizing conservation measures in small school districts and tribal schools.
