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December 19, 2024

Industry Seeks Flexibility on New Supply Chain Reliability Standards

Electric industry participants asked FERC for flexibility in setting the new supply chain risk management (SCRM) standards the commission suggested in a notice of proposed rulemaking issued in September (RM24-4).  

Edison Electric Institute, Electric Power Supply Association and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association filed joint comments Dec. 2 saying they support efforts to improve supply chain risk management practices but have qualms with FERC’s specific proposals. 

“As FERC states in this NOPR, while the global supply chain introduces risk to the security and reliability of the BPS by creating potential attack surfaces for threat actors to exploit, it also provides the opportunity for significant customer benefits such as low cost, product variety and rapid innovation,” the joint trade groups said. 

As the technology to operate the grid evolves, grid owners and operators will continue to be responsible for security, but that responsibility is shared by suppliers, vendors and manufacturers. Revisions to mandatory standards need to strike the proper balance between the responsibilities of industry and suppliers, the trade groups said. 

FERC’s proposed rule would require responsible entities to evaluate equipment and vendors to better identify supply chain risks, requiring NERC to establish a maximum time frame between when an entity performs its initial risk assessment during the procurement process and when it installs the equipment. Responsible entities would have to take steps to validate supplier claims around any risks. (See FERC Proposes Further Cybersecurity Measures.) 

The trade groups said they don’t support the commission’s recommendation that entities should reevaluate the risks of installing any piece of equipment that has sat in storage for a long time.  But they did agree with a proposal to perform periodic reassessments of vendors that consider the criticality of a service or product and changed circumstances, such as a merger or a security event associated with a supplier. 

Forcing such reassessments could prove difficult contractually with overseas suppliers, who might not be required to go through reviews, the groups said. 

While FERC stopped short of requiring responsible entities to guarantee the accuracy of information they get from vendors, the trade groups oppose overarching requirements for vendors to supply supporting evidence or independent certifications. 

“Mandatory Reliability Standards should use a risk-based approach that allows entities to determine when and what validation is required for vendor-provided supply chain risk management information based on entity-defined criteria,” the groups wrote. “This approach allows entities to focus on products and services that represent the greatest risk to reliability while minimizing the increased workload associated with validating vendor responses.” 

The trade associations asked FERC to support a risk-based approach to developing future supply chain standards, which, given the growing number of suppliers, will require scalable mechanisms to identify and address risks. 

‘Continuous Monitoring’

Amazon Web Services (AWS) also weighed in on the NOPR, urging FERC to use a risk-based approach on any requirement to restudy equipment in storage before it gets installed. AWS advised against a blanket requirement for reassessment, saying it should only be triggered by events such as a change in supplier ownership, geopolitical events or new security exploits. 

Rigid time frames could lead industry participants to miss important risks that arise right after a reassessment, while adding costs with no major benefits, AWS said. 

“Continuous monitoring of assets in production is a more effective approach to supply chain risk management by increasing visibility into potential risks and the ability to respond to emerging risks,” AWS said. “NERC should credit programs that include continuous monitoring to complement periodic full reassessments.” 

AWS urged FERC to accept the use of third-party certifications and technology solutions to help responsible entities stay on top of supply chain risk management. 

“Use of third-party certifications should be explicitly supported as a valuable aspect of risk assessment because such use leverages high-quality risk analyses and security practice verification provided by disinterested third parties,” the company added. 

‘Aggressive Approach’

The ISO/RTO Council said it supports robust supply chain risk management practices and argued that any directives to NERC should recognize that responsible entities are best suited to determine how and when to evaluate risks. 

“Neither NERC nor a NERC standards drafting team will fully understand or appreciate each individual responsible entity’s unique supply chain risks,” the IRC said. “Although NERC can develop a requirement that responsible entities identify risks and specify the timing requirements for equipment and vendor evaluations, each individual responsible entity is in a better position to understand the risks related to its unique supply chain.” 

IRC also urged FERC to tread lightly on requiring confirmation of vendor’s claims about supply chain risks because that is difficult and potentially cost-prohibitive. Any rules should give responsible entities flexibility to pick a validation process — such as a direct or third-party audit, it said. 

“This flexibility will assist compliance in the short-term,” IRC said. “Any commission directive to NERC should also encourage and drive further consideration of a longer-term evolution that would take validation responsibilities off of each responsible entity and allow for the development of third-party verification and other means to more efficiently undertake this important validation task.” 

While many in the industry argued for flexibility, the Secure the Grid Coalition, which calls itself “an ad hoc group of policy, energy and national security experts,” argued the NOPR is a small step and said FERC should do more to secure the industry’s supply chain risk management (SCRM). 

“The continued reliance on generic improvements to SCRM standards without targeted action against known risks from Chinese-manufactured transformers and other critical grid equipment leave significant vulnerabilities unaddressed,” the conservative group told FERC. “To ensure the reliability and safety of the U.S. electric grid, FERC must take a more comprehensive and aggressive approach.” 

Utilities should be incentivized to buy American products, something FERC can encourage with an aggressive messaging campaign that it is no longer satisfied with the “status quo of its entities purchasing vital assets — particularly transformers and other critical grid equipment — from hostile nations,” the coalition said. 

NY Contracts for $4.7B of Wind, Solar Projects

New York state has executed contracts for proposed onshore wind and solar projects totaling 2,341 MW of capacity at an expected cost of over $4.7 billion.

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) reported the contracts Dec. 3, a little over a year after it launched the state’s 2023 Renewable Energy Standard solicitation.

The 23 contracts are intended to get New York closer to its decarbonization goals and are expected to generate about 5 million MWh of electricity per year. The nominal weighted average strike price of the projects over their lifetime is $94.73/MWh, which would average about 70 cents on the average customer’s monthly utility bill.

All the projects are in upstate New York, and all but one is far removed from the New York City area, where the need for clean energy is greatest. Thanks to upstate nuclear and hydropower generation, a high percentage of northern New York’s electricity already is emissions free. The densely populated downstate area still relies heavily on fossil-fired generation.

Eliminating transmission bottlenecks to move the clean power north to south is another priority for the state.

NYSERDA President Doreen Harris said in a news release: “Today we celebrate 23 more projects that will deliver clean, sustainable energy to our state’s electric grid. New York continues to provide a reliable market for renewable energy projects, and by facilitating responsible development of these projects, we are protecting our natural resources and creating healthier communities.”

The word “celebrate” is appropriate, given events of the past 13 months.

Developers holding New York Tier 1 renewable energy certificate (REC) contracts sought inflation adjustments after the contracts became financially untenable. The state rejected the request in October 2023, prompting a mass cancellation of contracts and evisceration of the state’s renewable energy portfolio.

The 2023 Tier 1 solicitation, launched Nov. 30, 2023, was one of the state’s efforts to recover.

Importantly, the 23 contracts awarded in this solicitation are going to later-stage projects, which should limit the delay and cancellation risks that face early-stage projects. NYSERDA said several of the contracted projects already have started construction, and all are expected to be operational by 2028.

This will help the state get closer to its statutory 2030 target of 70% renewables; earlier this year, officials acknowledged they are likely to miss that goal, perhaps by a wide margin.

The upfront investment to build these 23 projects, expected to surpass $4.7 billion, will be borne by the private sector. The REC money does not start flowing to the developers until the projects are fully permitted and fully operational.

The contracts announced Dec. 3 are for the following projects and developers:

    • Dog Corners, Cordelio Power, Cayuga County.
    • Scipio Solar, Cordelio Power, Cayuga County.
    • ELP Granby Solar II, VC Renewables, Oswego County.
    • Garnet Energy Center, NextEra Energy Resources, Cayuga County.
    • Trelina Solar Energy Center, NextEra Energy Resources, Seneca County.
    • Cider Solar Farm, Hecate Energy and Greenbacker Renewable Energy Co., Genesee County.
    • Highview Solar, Cordelio Power, Wyoming County.
    • Heritage Wind, Apex Clean Energy, Orleans County.
    • Excelsior Energy Center, NextEra Energy Resources, Genesee County.
    • Little Pond Solar, Greenbacker Renewable Energy Co., Orange County.
    • Tayandenega Solar, Greenbacker Renewable Energy Co., Montgomery County.
    • Rock District Solar, Greenbacker Renewable Energy Co., Schoharie County.
    • Grassy Knoll Solar, Cordelio Power, Herkimer County.
    • Flat Hill Solar, Cordelio Power, Herkimer County.
    • Watkins Road Solar, Cordelio Power, Herkimer County.
    • Hills Solar, Cordelio Power, Herkimer County.
    • Flat Stone Solar, Cordelio Power, Oneida County.
    • Brookside Solar, AES, Franklin County.
    • Baron Winds II, RWE, Steuben County.
    • Canisteo Wind Energy Center, Invenergy, Steuben County.
    • Valley Solar, Cordelio Power, Tioga County.
    • Alle-Catt Wind, Invenergy, Allegany and Cattaraugus counties, Wyoming County.
    • Bear Ridge Solar, Cypress Creek Renewables, Niagara County.

SPP Stakeholders Endorse Need Dates for Delayed Transmission Projects

SPP stakeholders have endorsed a pair of winter-weather staging dates for transmission projects after two months of discussions and negotiations that delayed their approval by the Board of Directors. 

The Markets and Operations Policy Committee on Dec. 2 voted to endorse the need dates for a pair of projects from the 2024 Integrated Transmission Planning assessment, sending the issue onto the board and its Members Committee for final consideration during their Dec. 9 conference call. 

The board delayed a decision on the projects’ need dates — the earliest that staff identify that a project is needed — during its October meeting over a lack of consensus. (See SPP Board Approves $7.65B ITP, Delays Contentious Issue.) 

SPP staff met three times over eight days in November with the Transmission and Economic Studies working groups to iron out their differences over the staging issue. They held separate discussions on two winter storm-based models, reviewed staging data on the Year 2 Winter Storm Elliott model and agreed on an incremental staging concept to prevent Elliott-level load shed. 

Sunny Raheem, SPP’s director of system planning, said staff’s focus was ensuring stakeholders could review the two models and provide additional education on the staging approach used to determine the projects’ need dates and in-service dates. 

“There was a lot of involvement from the stakeholder groups and being able to make sure those meetings were progressing forward and accurately within the board’s direction,” he said. 

The discussions resulted in MOPC’s endorsement of a December 2028 date for the 345-kV Tobias-Elm Creek transmission line on the western side of SPP’s footprint, an 85-mile segment valued at $887.46 million. It cleared the two-thirds approval threshold with 71%. 

The TWG and ESWG recommended a 2028 need date for the 154-mile, $484.09 million 345-kV Buffalo Gap-Delaware project from Kansas into Southwest Missouri, but Evergy was able to amend the motion to move the need date to December 2025. MOPC eventually approved a motion that included the 2025 need date as resolving the remaining Elliott target area’s reliability needs, consistent with SPP staff’s incremental staging approach. It passed with 75% approval. 

The first project is expected to increase transfer capability from SPP North to SPP South and decrease the chances for load shed. The second brings a new extra-high-voltage source into Missouri to support system voltage and transfers from SPP. 

Evergy’s Mo Awad pressed for the earlier 2025 need date, saying a related 345-kV project with a 2025 need date would not resolve low-voltage issues experienced during Elliott. He said the 2025 date is consistent with staff’s “shorter lead time” approach referenced in an ITP staging process information paper. 

SPP defines projects needed within three years to be “short-term reliability projects.” SPP must explain the reliability issues and post them for a 30-day comment period before the board’s determination. Incumbent transmission owners hold the right of first refusal. 

Rebuild projects in a ROFR state and needed after three years are open to competitive bids under FERC Order 1000. 

“I don’t see any of these projects being in service before the winter of 2028. That’s just the reality of building big transmission projects,” Kansas Power Pool’s Larry Holloway said. “It appears to me that this is just an argument to avoid the competitive process.” 

Awad responded during an extended back-and-forth between the two with several examples of 345-kV projects that Evergy has been able to complete on time and on budget.  

“Those are concrete examples that we complete 345-kV projects by the in-service data as accepted by SPP on the [notification to construct],” Awad said. “I would offer that if those projects go competitive, they’re not going to expedite the projects. They’re going to slow them down. If they’re not competitive, they’re going to go to the [designated transmission owner], and they’re going to start engineering and right-of-way acquisition immediately. If those projects go to the competitive process … it will take a year at least to award the project to an individual. That’s a year that could be used for engineering and right-of-way acquisition.” 

Power Market Costs Behind Rate Increases, PGE Says

Portland General Electric’s rate hikes largely stem from increased wholesale power market costs, the utility wrote after Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) voiced concern that customers are struggling to pay their electricity bills. 

PGE CEO Maria Pope responded to Wyden’s questions concerning increased electricity costs in Oregon in a Nov. 27 letter that described the immense growth the utility has seen in tech sector loads but stopped short of tying that development to the price pressures faced by residential ratepayers. 

The Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) approved 40% in price increases for PGE customers from 2020 to 2024, an annual average increase of 8%, according to Pope. 

“These customer price changes over the last five years have primarily been driven by the rising costs to purchase necessary power from the open energy market to serve customers,” Pope wrote. “Power costs, which PGE has limited options to control and are necessary to maintain reliable service to customers, have nearly tripled in the past five years.” 

Pope’s response follows Wyden’s contention in a separate letter that PGE customers’ electricity bills have gone up by at least 40% since 2021, while nonpayment shutoffs have increased.  

“For folks that are walking an economic tightrope, balancing food and medicine bills with electricity prices, the rising prices are unsustainable,” Wyden wrote. 

The lawmaker acknowledged that efforts to modernize the power grid have partly contributed to the price changes but added that “it is concerning to see the cost of electricity rise at this rate in such a short time frame.” 

Wyden sent a list of seven questions to Pope’s office, requesting a response within 30 days. 

Pope got back to the lawmaker two days later, highlighting various factors that have contributed to the price increases over the past four years. The CEO pointed to recent investments in energy facilities and infrastructure, wildfires, heat waves and inflation, among other things. 

Energy deliveries in 2023 were 9.2% higher on a weather-adjusted basis than in 2019. In the 10 years prior, the utility saw growth of 2.8%. Industrial energy deliveries increased by 34.3% in the past five years, mainly driven by semiconductor manufacturing and data center segments, according to the letter. Over the same period, residential load grew by 5.2%, while commercial deliveries declined by 2.7%.  

Wyden asked if PGE has taken steps to limit the cost increases to those sectors that have driven the most growth in the past five years and to explain whether and why residential customers could be bearing the costs for that growth. 

Pope responded that rates for all customer classes are determined through OPUC’s public rate review process based on the utility’s cost of service to each class.   

“Existing regulatory frameworks will need to evolve to appropriately reflect how investments serve different customers and how costs are allocated given the changes in the new large load demands,” she wrote. “Collaboration with regulators, policymakers and stakeholders is essential to help address these new realities and to keep the price of electricity as low as possible for residential and other business customers.” 

‘Keep Pressing the Case’

Wyden also asked about costs not covered under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The act aimed to cover 30% of the cost of new clean energy installations, the lawmaker’s letter stated. 

Pope responded that clean energy resources are not the main culprit behind rate increases, saying that “[t]he cost of power purchased on the market and through the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) to serve customer demand, address capacity constraints or … fuel thermal plants tripled between 2019 and 2024.” 

“These costs are beyond the utility’s ability to control,” Pope added. “Over that same time, PGE’s own operating expenses underran the rate of inflation by 7%.” 

Doug Johnson, a spokesperson for BPA, told RTO Insider the agency “makes transactions at prevailing market prices and competes in the wholesale market as both a buyer and seller of energy and capacity.” 

“BPA, similar to PGE, has witnessed the value of these energy and capacity products fluctuate with a propensity to rise over the last few years as the demand for clean and reliable power and dispatchable resources has increased,” Johnson said.

“BPA was somewhat surprised to learn it had been singled out in the response letter,” he added.

Meanwhile, Wyden’s staff has contacted the OPUC to ask what else can be done to combat the increases, which exceed national averages, according to Hank Stern, a spokesperson for Wyden. 

“[Wyden] appreciates PGE’s responsiveness to his letter and in addition to the fresh discussions with the PUC about available options, will follow up with PGE to keep pressing the case for fair rates that Oregon consumers can afford,” Stern told RTO Insider. 

Maryland Offshore Wind Plan Gains Final BOEM Approval

Federal regulators continue to advance offshore wind energy development, issuing a key approval for a Maryland proposal and smoothing the way for as many as six future projects in the New York Bight. 

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced the decisions Dec. 2 and Dec. 3. They are the latest in a long series of such announcements by an administration that made building the U.S. offshore wind industry a priority — and among the last before the transition to a president who has pledged to shut down the industry. 

BOEM on Dec. 3 announced approval of the construction and operations plan for the proposed Maryland Offshore Wind project.  

It is the final BOEM approval needed for the plan. It had been expected after BOEM on Sept. 5 issued a record of decision in favor of US Wind’s proposal to place up to 114 wind turbines rated at up to 2 GW off the northern Maryland coast, near the Delaware border.  

The two-phase plan — called MarWin and Momentum Wind — has secured contracts with the state of Maryland for the offshore renewable energy certificates that will help make the project financially feasible. 

In prepared statements, the developer and an industry association made no mention of the Maryland Offshore Wind’s prospects after President Donald Trump returns to office next month. They also made no mention of the ecological benefits of offshore wind power, focusing instead on energy security and economic benefits, both of which are stated priorities for Trump. 

US Wind CEO Jeff Grybowski said: “This is a proud moment for US Wind. After more than four years of rigorous and robust analysis, we are thrilled to have secured this final BOEM approval. US Wind’s projects will produce massive amounts of homegrown energy and will help satisfy the region’s critical need for more electricity, all while supporting good local jobs. America can achieve energy abundance and put many Americans to work building the power plants of the future.” 

Oceantic Network CEO Liz Burdock said: “Today, Maryland Offshore Wind became the 10th approved commercial-scale project, another significant achievement for the U.S. offshore wind industry. The first project for the state of Maryland, it will deliver a host of economic benefits while helping to meet our nation’s growing energy demand. Maryland Offshore Wind will create American jobs by harnessing a strong, local offshore wind supply chain. US Wind has advanced plans to bring steel fabrication back to the old Bethlehem Steel facility in Dundalk, and the project will support a variety of other industries throughout its life cycle.” 

A day earlier, on Dec. 2, BOEM announced a record of decision identifying 58 environmental measures expected to be applied to projects proposed in the six New York Bight lease areas off the New Jersey-New York coast. 

Wind energy lease areas in the New York Bight are shown. | BOEM

BOEM’s simultaneous review of the six lease areas is a first-of-its-kind attempt to streamline the regulatory process for projects that potentially would have similar impacts and proceed on similar timelines, given their proximity to one another and given that all six leases were awarded in the same 2022 auction. 

As part of this process, BOEM completed a programmatic environmental impact statement in October. The groundwork BOEM is laying now does not confer any approvals, nor does it lock in the process by which future approvals would be granted. 

The six lease areas total nearly 500,000 acres and offer the potential for more than 7 GW of installed generation capacity. 

$11B Transmission + Generation Plan Canceled in NY

An $11 billion package of transmission and renewable energy investments planned in New York has been canceled. 

The Clean Path New York (CPNY) renewable energy certificate (REC) contract with the state was terminated Nov. 27, and one of the partners in the venture said Dec. 2 the project itself has been abandoned. 

No reason was stated for the cancellation, but CPNY likely encountered the same delays and cost escalations that have bedeviled other energy projects in New York. 

CPNY was envisioned as a way to break the densely populated New York City region’s heavy reliance on aging fossil fuel power generation. 

It was to transmit 3.8 GW of power from 23 new solar and onshore wind projects in rural upstate New York south to the New York City area via a 175-mile underground HVDC line. 

Public- and private-sector officials announced in November 2021 that CPNY and the Champlain Hudson Power Express had been chosen for the new Tier 4 RECs designed to help decarbonize the downstate grid. 

After more than a decade in development, and with an expected price tag now in the $6 billion range, Champlain Hudson is under construction. (See Champlain Hudson Power Project Receives Landmark Delivery.) CPNY, which had expected to start construction in 2024 and enter service in 2027, had not yet been approved. 

CPNY was a public-private collaboration of the New York Power Authority (NYPA) and Forward Power, which is a joint venture of energyRe and Invenergy. 

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) notified the Department of Public Service on Nov. 27 that it and CPNY by mutual agreement had terminated the Tier 4 REC contract (Case 15-E-0302). 

The three-sentence notice provided no details, and neither did NYPA or Forward. 

NYPA Vice President of Corporate Communications Lindsay Kryzak said Dec. 2 via email: “The Clean Path project was a public-private collaboration in response to the Tier 4 RFP by NYSERDA. We worked alongside energyRE and Invenergy to continue moving Clean Path forward in the face of changing conditions related to the economics of the project. NYPA will continue to work on modernizing the grid and addressing New York State’s transmission needs to support its long-term goals.” 

Forward Power spokesperson Amy Varghese said via email: “energyRe and Invenergy remain committed to New York’s energy transition. As we continue to advance our portfolio of renewable energy projects across the state, we will evaluate solutions for addressing the largest transmission bottlenecks facing New York’s electric grid in order to deliver reliable and affordable power, good-paying jobs and clean air for the Empire State.” 

CPNY is the latest in a long series of casualties in New York’s legally mandated effort to green its grid. 

In June 2023, the developers of most of New York’s large-scale onshore and offshore renewable energy proposals sought to renegotiate their REC contracts because the cost of construction had soared after they locked in their compensation with the contracts. (See OSW Developers Seeking More Money from New York.) 

CPNY followed up with a petition for more money as well, arguing that it was facing the same economic pinch: 14 of the proposals that made up the generation side of the portfolio already held Tier 1 REC contracts, and the other nine were Tier 1-eligible. (See Clean Path NY Joins Calls for Inflation Adjustment.) 

The Public Service Commission rejected the developers’ request to renegotiate the contracts in October 2023 and CPNY subsequently withdrew its petition. (See NY Rejects Inflation Adjustment for Renewable Projects.)

Developers soon canceled the bulk of the REC contracts New York had signed. They were allowed to rebid their projects into subsequent solicitations, but the state’s portfolio of contracted renewables remains stunted a year later, and state officials expect to miss the 70% renewables by 2030 mandate, perhaps by a wide margin. (See NY Expects to Miss 2030 Renewable Energy Target.) 

Varghese did not provide a requested update on the status of the 23 generation proposals. 

They were not a batch of new proposals drawn up for CPNY. Rather, they were a collection of pre-existing proposals gathered into the CPNY portfolio. And cancellation of a REC contract does not mean cancellation of the project itself, though it almost certainly pushes back the timeline. 

Meanwhile, the complex Tier 4 mechanism itself is gradually taking shape. NYSERDA submitted an implementation plan Oct. 11, four years after Tier 4 was added to the state’s Clean Energy Standard. 

And a new state law gave NYPA a new role as a renewable energy developer in mid-2023, more than a year after its CPNY collaboration was chosen for a Tier 4 contract. 

NYPA is finalizing a strategic plan for 3.5 GW of wind, solar and storage capacity that it would develop on its own or in collaboration with the private sector. It has said the 40 proposals in the plan likely would suffer the same attrition rate as seen in the industry — 80 to 85% for early stage proposals and 30 to 60% for more mature projects. (See NYPA Enters Renewable Development with 3.5-GW Plan and NYPA Urged to Do More in New Renewables Role.) 

LBNL Report Quantifies Resilience Benefit of Distributed Storage Systems

Installing solar-and-storage systems at customer homes can improve grid resilience, according to a new study from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which found they cut loss of load by a mean of 96%.

The study crunched the numbers on the value of mitigating loss of load and regional differences in outages that last more than 24 hours from around the country. It calculated a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) using those data against the cost of solar-and-storage systems, which found the resilience benefits alone justify an average of 14% of the costs of storage.

The actual resilience benefit to adding storage to solar varies significantly around the U.S., ranging from zero to 58% of the costs. Roughly half of the 2,519 counties studied have a BCR under 0.1, and just 12% of counties have a ratio greater than 0.3, the study says.

Those benefits grow with the frequency of extreme weather events leading to significant outages, a higher value of lost load (VOLL) and in scenarios with lower costs of storage, whether from tax credits or cheaper technology.

“The results demonstrate that, in most counties, resilience benefits alone are insufficient to justify the economic addition of storage to existing PV systems,” the study says. “The coinciding occurrence of higher frequency of resilience events, higher VOLL and lower cost can substantially increase average BCR, but these conditions apply to a smaller set of customers.”

Customers get more than just resilience from solar-plus-storage systems, such as cutting utility bills and leveraging grid services, the paper notes.

VOLL can vary significantly among individual customers, with residents that have medical devices that need electricity, vulnerable household members or sensitive equipment placing a higher value on it than others. The paper accounts for those varying needs with a sensitivity analysis.

The findings indicate that solar plus storage can alleviate the impact of resilience events on customers, especially in areas with a high number of such events.

“In the future, we expect climate change to increase the frequency of extreme weather events and potentially the frequency of interruptions,” the paper says. “Increased electrification of end uses intuitively suggests that customers’ average VOLL will increase: Fulfilling any needs will require electricity, with few substitutes available.”

With the regional disparity of areas more prone to outages and relatively higher VOLLs seeing more benefits from solar plus storage, the paper says customers in those areas should have affordable options to mitigate those impacts.

Utilities can maximize the grid and customer benefits of distributed solar plus storage by offering more granular outage information: detailing specific locations, durations and customer impacts, and making anonymized data public. They can also improve the quantification of VOLL, with the paper suggesting that utilities at least break down the value by customer class and location.

“Hosting capacity analyses and publicly available maps allow developers to target specific areas of the distribution system with value-adding resources,” the report says. “A similar approach could be developed for resilience value, in which a utility would integrate its outage management system data and granular VOLL estimates to quantify areas of the grid in which storage may have a high resilience value.”

Stakeholders Skeptical of NYISO Performance Penalty Proposal

NYISO stakeholders Nov. 21 expressed skepticism of an ISO proposal to levy financial penalties against underperforming generators, saying it was not developed enough to be voted upon by the end of the year. 

While nonperforming generators must buy out the energy they did not provide in the real-time market based on its day-ahead operating reserves schedule, there is no penalty for nonperformance, NYISO said in presenting its proposed Operating Reserves Performance Penalty to the Installed Capacity Working Group meeting.  

Under the proposal, NYISO would use three metrics to identify consistently underperforming providers of operating reserves: 

    • resource response frequency during emergency conditions and audits;  
    • frequency of underperformance after being scheduled in the day-ahead market to provide operating reserves; and  
    • the real-time energy provided compared to the real-time energy requested, covering generators that are infrequently dispatched. 

“We heard feedback from a number of folks that poor performers should be removed from the market and that folks would like to see us put some additional provisions on how we will effectuate removal from the market for poor performers,” said Nathaniel Gilbraith, NYISO’s manager of energy market design. “What we wanted to do … is lay out some illustrative metrics here today to start the discussion.” 

While no one at the meeting was opposed to the idea of penalties, some said that because the thresholds for the metrics were not well defined, it was hard for them to evaluate if they were fair assessments of poor performance. 

“I think you would want to provide some criteria so that people could understand at what level someone would be disqualified,” said Howard Fromer, director of regulatory affairs for Bayonne Energy Center. “I understand you have the authority today to do it, but there needs to be some distinction.” 

The proposal will be discussed again Dec. 11, with a final draft for stakeholders to vote on before the end of the year, Gilbraith said. 

“I’m struggling to understand why we’re moving forward with a vote on this in December when there seems to be a lot of outstanding questions that may or may not be answered during the manual revision discussions. … It sounds like we’re going to be working on this project next year. What’s the rush?” asked Matthew Schwall, director of regulatory affairs at AlphaGen. “As things stand, I’m inclined to vote ‘no.’” 

Another stakeholder chimed in that they also thought the proposal was “under-baked” and that while they appreciated that NYISO was “under the gun” to get a vote in by the end of the year, it was hard to support a proposal that was not clearly laid out. 

NYISO Publishes Final RNA Showing Reliability Need for NYC

NYISO announced Nov. 21 that it has published the final, approved version of the 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment, which identifies a reliability need in New York City beginning in 2033. 

The declaration of a reliability need triggers a process in which NYISO solicits solutions, including transmission-based from the local transmission owners, and generation and demand response from market participants. 

The NYISO Board of Directors had approved the final draft several days earlier. (See NYISO Board Approves RNA, 2025 Budget.) The RNA’s assumptions changed throughout the stakeholder process. It initially identified a statewide need, but staff revised their concerns downward after they identified “flexible” loads in the cryptocurrency sector. (See NYISO: Large Load Flexibility Eliminates 2034 Shortfall Concern.) 

Zach Smith, senior vice president of system and resource planning, elaborated on this shift with Kevin Lanahan, vice president of external affairs and corporate communications, on the ISO’s “Power Trends” podcast. 

“We learned partway through this process more details, more operational characteristics of some of these facilities such that we were able to make what we believe is a reasonable assumption that some of these facilities will reduce their demand during these peak demand periods,” Smith said. 

“The statewide reliability need was avoided, but it’s looming, fair to say?” Lanahan prompted. “It still kind of looms in the future.” 

“It sure does. … On a statewide level, we determined that we do not officially have a reliability need on a statewide basis over the next 10 years. … That’s the good news,” Smith said. “However, in 2034, our calculations show that on a statewide basis … we have a surplus of only 50 MW. That’s very small on a system that’s over 30,000 MW of peak demand.” 

With such a small surplus, any small changes in the assumptions about what generation is coming online, and the way that industries draw power, could lead to an official declaration in the short term, Smith said. 

Load Forecasting Task Force Updates

The Load Forecasting Task Force presented preliminary updates to its 2024 weather-normalized peak load for the 2025 ICAP forecast at its meeting Nov. 22. These included both the preliminary weather-normalized peak loads for this year and updated growth factors for each transmission zone based on economic data from Moody’s Analytics. 

This year’s weather-normalized peak load was 31,292.7 MW, which will be factored into next year’s ICAP forecast. It occurred July 8 during the 5 to 6 p.m. hour.  

Max Schuler, a demand forecasting analyst for NYISO, went over the economic indicators for the transmission zones, showing that across the board, real income, GDP, number of households and employment were trending upward, but population was trending downward in each, except in the Orange & Rockland Utilities zone. 

“If households are increasing but population is going down, what does that mean?” asked Howard Fromer, director of regulatory affairs for Bayonne Energy Center. 

“These are all very slight changes for household and population,” Schuler said. “But it’s a continuing trend of fewer people per household … as younger people move out without their parents to start their own house.” 

New York State Reliability Council Installed Capacity Subcommittee

The New York State Reliability Council’s Installed Capacity Subcommittee reviewed and approved updates to the Tan45 Methodology Review Whitepaper and the Installed Capacity Requirement Study technical report. 

The ICAP study shows an increase in required capacity from last year, from 23.1 to 24.4%. Most of this increase was driven by the limit on Emergency Operating Procedure calls. The rest was driven by increases in renewables and Special Case Resources. 

The white paper investigated how the method the NYSRC uses to help set the installed reserve margin will function as new transmission projects come online to serve offshore wind resources. (See NYISO Studying How to Update IRM Calculation to Account for Offshore Wind.) 

It found that under cases in which there are 9,000 MW of new offshore wind resources, the complex method for setting the IRM — known as “Tan45” — is unable to establish an IRM. 

The NYSRC in 2025 will continue to investigate alternative methods, or improvements to the current method, to figure out how to calculate the IRM under evolving conditions. 

Both studies will be sent to the NYSRC Executive Committee for approval in December.  

MISO Records Comparatively Smaller Peak in October Operations

MISO experienced an 84-GW peak load during an unseasonably warm early October; still, the peak was no match for October 2023’s 99-GW peak.

Despite MISO registering a smaller year-over-year monthly peak, its average October 2024 load remained unchanged from last year at 69 GW, according to the RTO’s monthly operations report. Ahead of the fall, MISO predicted a 95-GW peak during the month.

The system appeared unaffected by an 872-MW capacity deficit for the fall season in Missouri’s Zone 5 due to the permanent closure of Ameren’s Rush Island coal plant Oct. 15. MISO wasn’t forced to issue an alert or warning throughout October. (See MISO Predicts Painless Fall Despite Missouri Capacity Shortfall.)

MISO averaged a $26/MWh real-time locational marginal price during October, less than October 2023’s $31/MWh and half of October 2022’s $52/MWh average. Average coal and gas prices stayed static year-over-year, at $2/MMBtu.

MISO said it fell short of its self-imposed standard on price divergence between its day-ahead and real-time markets over the month. System-wide, the average day-ahead price was $26.71/MWh while the average real-time price was $25.80/MWh.

The RTO usually tries to keep its absolute day-ahead to real-time price difference divided by a day-ahead locational marginal price at or below 22.2%. In October, MISO said the deviation reached 27%.

MISO said congestion and real-time ancillary service product scarcity worsened the divergence. It added that “ramp-up continues to be a challenge, particularly in the evening hours as generation is coming offline.”

The grid operator said day-ahead to real-time price deviation this year also has been poor enough to review in January, April, May, June and July, in addition to October.

For October, real-time congestion cost the footprint about $118 million, lower than October 2023’s $186 million.

Daily average generation outages for the typically maintenance-heavy October climbed to 61 GW this year, compared to 53 GW in October 2023.

As it’s been doing on a nearly monthly basis, MISO set an all-time peak solar supply record Oct. 16, when solar briefly served a little more than 8 GW, or 16% of load at the time. Solar contributions were significant enough to register on MISO’s total 49-TWh energy fuel mix for the month, where they supplied 2 TWh.